And yet Iran’s thirst for revenge is surely not slaked. Even if they avoid overt forms of aggression, the Revolutionary Guards are likely to pursue other tactics, including cyber-attacks, suicide- bombings by proxies, assassinations of American officials and an array of means they have honed over the years. These reprisals could take months to unfold. As the killing of General Suleimani recedes, Iran will once again begin to probe the willingness of America to use force. In an asymmetric world weak parties often retreat in the face of force, only to return. They have more patience and a greater tolerance of pain than a distant superpower does.
然而，伊朗對復仇的渴望肯定沒有消失。即使他們避免公開的侵略形式，革命衛隊也可能采取其他策略，包括網絡攻擊、代理人的自殺式炸彈襲擊、暗殺美國官員以及他們多年來磨練的一系列手段。這些報復行動可能需要數月時間才能展開。隨著蘇萊曼尼將軍之死的結束，伊朗將再次開始調查美國使用武力的意愿。在一個不對稱的世界里，弱小的各方往往在武力面前退卻，然后又卷土重來。他們比遙遠的超級大國更有耐心，更能忍受痛苦。
The second test is whether America’s strike weakens Iran’s grip on its neighbours. Iran has a network of militias, proxies and forward bases for its Quds Force, across an area that stretches from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea. This is about projecting Iranian power, regardless of the atrocities committed by its clients, such as Bashar al-Assad, who used nerve gas on his own people without a whisper of complaint from Iran.
第二個考驗是美國的打擊是否會削弱伊朗對其鄰國的控制。伊朗擁有一個由民兵、代理人和圣城軍前沿基地組成的網絡，跨越從地中海到阿拉伯海的區域。這是為了彰顯伊朗的力量，而不管敘利亞總統巴沙爾·阿薩德等其主顧犯下的種種暴行。阿薩德對自己的人民使用了神經毒氣，而伊朗卻沒有絲毫怨言。
General Suleimani’s death deprives this grim network of its architect and orchestrator. It is too soon to judge the calibre of those who are taking his place, but if the general was as exceptional as his reputation, then his loss will be felt. It may also deprive the Quds Force of funds. The Iranian state is desperately short of money. Ordinary Iranians have noticed that resources which are going on guns and mortars might be better spent on schools and hospitals.
蘇萊曼尼將軍之死剝奪了由這位設計者和編排者制造的殘酷網絡。現在判斷接替他的人的能力還為時過早，但如果這位將軍像他的聲譽一樣杰出，那么他的損失將會被人們感受到。它還可能使圣城軍喪失資金。伊朗平民已經注意到，用于購買槍支和迫擊炮的資源最好花在學校和醫院上。
But there are complications here, too. After the assassination, Iran is hellbent on pushing America out of the Middle East. It will start in Iraq, where it has mostly outmanoeuvred America. The government in Baghdad is dominated by Shia politicians in thrall to Iran. On January 5th Iraq’s parliament passed a resolution calling on the government to start evicting foreign troops, including 5,000 or so American soldiers. The vote is not binding, many Iraqis resent Iranian influence, and American money and weapons are valuable to Iraq. Even so, it increasingly seems more a question of when, rather than if, the troops finally go.
但這里也有復雜的地方。暗殺事件后，伊朗執意要把美國趕出中東。它將從伊拉克開始，在那里它基本上已經勝過了美國。巴格達的政府電視臺被受伊朗控制的什葉派政客所控制。1月5日，伊拉克議會通過了一項決議，要求政府開始驅逐外國軍隊，其中包括大約5000名美國士兵。投票沒有約束力，許多伊拉克人憎恨伊朗的影響，而美國的資金和武器對伊拉克來說是寶貴的。即便如此，問題似乎越來越多地集中在何時撤軍，而不是是否撤軍。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
評論
打印
