來源于《社論》版塊
Masterstroke or madness?
妙舉還是愚蠢的行為？
Donald Trump wants to curb Iran’s aggression. The question is whether he has gone about it the right way
唐納德·特朗普想要遏制伊朗的侵略。問題是他的做法是否正確
The killing of Qassem Suleimani by an American drone on January 3rd threatened to bring the United States and Iran closer to war than at any time since the hostage crisis in 1979. In a part of the world that has lost the power to shock, the audacious killing of Iran’s most important general, ordered by President Donald Trump, sent Iran reeling. In public ceremonies millions of Iranians put aside their discontent with the regime to mark General Suleimani’s death. Blood-curdling threats of destruction issued from the Middle East, echoed by warnings of mayhem from Western experts. And yet a retaliatory missile strike on two American bases in Iraq five days later killed nobody. It looked like a face-saving attempt by Iran to wind the crisis down. If that were the end of it, Mr Trump would be right to say that his strike had worked, as he suggested on January 8th. Ridding the world of a baleful individual and forcing Iran to curb its aggression really would be worthwhile achievements. In the coming months, that may indeed be how things turn out. The trouble is that nobody, including Mr Trump, can count on it.
1月3日，卡西姆·蘇萊曼尼被一架美國無人機(jī)擊斃，可能導(dǎo)致美國和伊朗更容易爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭，這是自1979年人質(zhì)危機(jī)以來最嚴(yán)重的一次沖突。在這個(gè)已經(jīng)有些麻木的地區(qū)，唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)下令對伊朗最重要的將軍大膽獵殺，伊朗舉國震驚。在公眾儀式上，數(shù)百萬伊朗人放下對現(xiàn)政權(quán)的不滿，緬懷蘇萊曼尼將軍的死亡。中東發(fā)出了令人毛骨悚然的毀滅威脅，西方專家也發(fā)出了可能造成混亂的警告。然而，5天后，一枚報(bào)復(fù)性導(dǎo)彈襲擊了美國在伊拉克的兩個(gè)基地，無人死亡。這看起來像是伊朗試圖挽回顏面以結(jié)束危機(jī)。如果事情就此結(jié)束，特朗普可以正確地說，正如他在1月8日所暗示的那樣，他的罷工起了作用。消除世界上一個(gè)邪惡的個(gè)人，并迫使伊朗遏制其侵略，確實(shí)是值得取得的成就。在接下來的幾個(gè)月里，事情可能真的會變成這樣。問題是，包括特朗普在內(nèi)，沒有人能指望它。
Two tests will define whether the killing of the general was a success—its effect on deterrence and on Iran’s regional power. For the past year Mr Trump has stood by as Iran and its proxies attacked merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, two American drones, oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and military bases in Iraq. Because it had concluded that there was no price to pay, Iran was becoming more brazen and belligerent. The beneficial effect of the drone strike on January 3rd is to re-establish the idea that America is willing to hit back. Iran’s restraint on Tuesday this week signals that it does not want to face an aerial onslaught by America. Another Iranian missile strike is less likely today than it was just weeks ago.
兩項(xiàng)測試將會決定殺死將軍是否是明智之舉——它對威懾和伊朗地區(qū)力量的影響。過去一年里，伊朗及其代理人在霍爾木茲海峽襲擊商船、兩架美國無人機(jī)、沙特阿拉伯的石油設(shè)施和伊拉克的軍事基地，特朗普一直袖手旁觀。因?yàn)橐晾实贸龅慕Y(jié)論是沒有代價(jià)，從而變得更加肆無忌憚和好戰(zhàn)。1月3日的無人機(jī)襲擊帶來的好處是重新樹立了美國愿意反擊的觀念。伊朗本周周二的克制表明，它不希望面對美國的空襲。與幾周前相比，伊朗再次發(fā)動導(dǎo)彈襲擊的可能性有所降低。
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