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But Nigeria has a secret weapon: democracy. Academics Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, authors of Why Nations Fail, argue that authoritarian states that free up their economies get a short-term boost, but it doesn't last because sustained success requires "inclusive capitalism" and democracy. That's what is happening in China now. A wave of autocratic leaders post-Deng hasn't been able to resist reasserting control of the economy and reversing many of his reforms. As they have done so, growth has cooled.
但尼日利亞有一個秘密武器：民主。學者達龍·阿西莫格魯和詹姆斯·羅賓遜是《為什么國家會失敗》的作者，他們認為解放經濟的專制國家得到了短期的提振，但它不會持久，因為持續的成功需要“包容的資本主義”和民主。這就是正在發生的事情。改革后的一波專制領導人已經無法抗拒重新控制經濟，無法逆轉許多改革。在他們這樣做的同時，經濟增長已經降溫。
Nigeria's democracy may be imperfect, but it's democracy. Since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria has had five elections of increasing validity. In 2015, an opposition candidate won and came to power peacefully—no small achievement in sub-Saharan Africa. An entire generation of Nigerians has no memory of un-democratic government. It has a mostly free press and a vibrant civil society. Successive civilian governments have moved to protect democracy by reducing what has traditionally been the greatest threat: the military. They have deliberately coup-proofed the country by weakening the army, retiring its senior leaders and repositioning it as an internal security force that is scattered across the country. According to GlobalFirePower.com, the Nigerian army now ranks 44th out of 137 countries, which puts it somewhere between Peru and Denmark, and well behind South Africa.
尼日利亞的民主也許不完美，但畢竟是民主。自1999年軍事統治結束以來，尼日利亞已經舉行了五次日益有效的選舉。2015年，一名反對派候選人贏得大選，并以和平的方式上臺執政，這在撒哈拉以南的非洲地區取得了不小的成就。整整一代尼日利亞人都沒有不民主政府的記憶。尼日利亞擁有一個基本自由的媒體和一個充滿活力的公民社會。歷屆文官政府都采取行動保護民主，減少了歷來最大的威脅：軍隊。他們故意削弱軍隊，讓高級領導人退休，并將其重新定位為分散在全國各地的國內安全部隊，以此來保護國家。根據GlobalFirePower.com的數據，尼日利亞軍隊在137個國家中排名第44位，位于秘魯和丹麥之間，遠遠落后于南非。
Investors aren't moving into Nigeria yet, but they're watching. The talk used to be about the economic potential of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Now it's MINT—Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey.
投資者還沒有進入尼日利亞，但他們正在觀望。過去，投資者談論的是金磚國家(巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非)的經濟潛力。現在是MINT——墨西哥，印度尼西亞，尼日利亞和土耳其。
"Right now, Nigeria is seen as just too hard, but there's a wall of money waiting to come in if it gets it right," Aiyesimoju says. According to Orji, Nigeria is "just a few tweaks away" from being an attractive place for investors. "Look at South Korea," he says. "All it took was changing one thing—the landholding law." (That change allowed larger farms, which enabled farmers to invest in mechanization.)
“現在，尼日利亞被認為是太困難了，但如果做對了，就會有一大堆錢等著進來，”埃耶西莫朱表示。根據奧爾吉的說法，尼日利亞離成為一個對投資者有吸引力的地方“只有幾步之遙”。“看看韓國，”他說。“只需要改變一件事——土地持有法。”(這一變化使規模更大的農場得以存在，從而使農民能夠投資于機械化。)
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