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It has around 200 million people, 10 times that of an average African nation and almost twice that of the second largest, Ethiopia. One out of every seven black people on earth is Nigerian. Nigeria's population is already larger than Russia's and in 30 years will pass that of the U.S. According to the U.N., by the end of the century, Nigeria will have 733 million people. It has what Folasope Aiyesimoju, CEO of the conglomerate UAC and formerly with Kohlberg Kravis Roberts in London, calls "demographics to die for." In other words, a young population. Nigeria is Africa's largest economy as well, surpassing South Africa. According to Canback Consulting, which focuses on emerging economies, it already has a small but growing middle class.
它有大約2億人口，是非洲平均水平的10倍，幾乎是第二大國家埃塞俄比亞的兩倍。地球上每七個黑人中就有一個是尼日利亞人。尼日利亞的人口已經超過俄羅斯，30年后將超過美國。根據聯合國的報告，到本世紀末，尼日利亞將有7.33億人口。它擁有UAC集團首席執行官、前KKR集團倫敦分公司首席執行官福拉索皮·埃耶西莫朱所說的“值得為之犧牲的人口統計數據”。換句話說，就是年輕人。尼日利亞也是非洲最大的經濟體，超過了南非。據專注于新興經濟體的咨詢公司Canback Consulting稱，中國已經有了一個規模雖小但不斷壯大的中產階級。
Of course, like China in 1978 and India in 1990, Nigeria has in place a set of economic policies that stifle innovation and efficiency. The government provides too much control and not enough support, such as infrastructure and basic services. One CEO says off the record, "Businesses pray to not be noticed by the government." Another describes a "continuous parade of government types coming through my office trying to shake me down."
當然，就像1978年的中國和1990年的印度一樣，尼日利亞有一套扼殺創新和效率的經濟政策。政府提供了太多的控制而沒有提供足夠的支持，比如基礎設施和基本服務。一位首席執行官私下表示:“企業祈禱政府不要注意到它們。”另一個人描述道:“不斷有各種各樣的政府官員來到我的辦公室，試圖讓我下臺。”
Andrew S. Nevin of PwC points out that the public sector in Nigeria is tiny compared with those of most countries. True. But if Nigeria removes the barriers to growth, its economy could explode too.
普華永道的安德魯 S. 內文指出，與大多數國家相比，尼日利亞的公共部門規模很小。這是真的。但是如果尼日利亞消除了增長的障礙，它的經濟也會爆炸。
Secret Weapons
秘密武器
Some pieces of the puzzle are already falling into place. Nigeria has a functioning stock exchange and capital market. Pockets of the country are thriving. Sanusi points to Lagos state, which provides an excellent model for what Nigeria could be. It's dynamic and things work, in part because the government collects taxes and reinvests them in improving infrastructure and providing services.
這個難題的一些部分已經逐步解決了。尼日利亞有一個正常運作的股票交易所和資本市場。這個國家的一些地區正在蓬勃發展。薩努西指出，拉各斯州為尼日利亞的未來提供了一個絕佳的范例。它是動態的，事情是有效的，部分原因是政府收稅并將其再投資于改善基礎設施和提供服務。
The export economy is diversifying. Nevin says Nigeria's most valuable export is now people, not oil. Around 5 million Nigerians live abroad, mostly in the U.K. and the U.S. The diaspora is highly educated. Almost a third of the Nigerians in America have advanced degrees. This diaspora is also passionately loyal. Nigeria gets more each year from remittances, money sent home by those working abroad, than it does from foreign aid. Nevin estimates that formal and informal remittances could total as much as $40 billion. But the diaspora provides more than just money. It is a real-time link to Western know-how and technology.
出口經濟正在多樣化。內文說，尼日利亞現在最有價值的出口是人，而不是石油。大約有500萬尼日利亞人生活在國外，主要是在英國和美國。散居海外的人受過高等教育。在美國，幾乎三分之一的尼日利亞人擁有高等學位。這些散居海外的人也非常忠誠。尼日利亞每年從海外工作人員寄回家的匯款中得到的錢比從外國援助中得到的要多。內文估計，正式和非正式匯款總額可能高達400億美元。但是移民帶來的不僅僅是金錢。它是與西方知識和技術的實時鏈接。
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