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Iran is left with few strategic options after Trump’s bold move
特朗普大膽采取行動，伊朗左右為難
Scoring legitimate foreign-policy wins has not been easy for U.S. President Donald Trump, Twitter proclamations notwithstanding.
對美國總統特朗普而言，在外交政策上贏得合法勝利并非易事，盡管從推特上來看并非如此。
But he’s just notched his biggest one yet against Iran.
但他近日還是贏得了迄今為止針對伊朗的最大一次勝利。
Since Trump decided to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),
特朗普決定退出《關于伊朗核計劃的全面協議》(JCPOA)后，
Iran has been careful to take only incremental steps away from the hard-fought nuclear deal
伊朗在脫離這一艱難達成的協議時一直頗為謹慎，僅采取循序漸進的方式，
in hopes that the other signatories would salvage it, but to no avail.
希望其他簽署國能挽救這一協議，但仍無濟于事。
Since then, Iran has spent the better part of a year testing U.S. limits.
于是，接下來的大半年伊朗轉向了試探美國的底線。
Cyberattacks. Harassing tankers. Shooting U.S. drones. Hitting Saudi oil facilities.
網絡攻擊，騷擾游輪，擊落美國的無人機，襲擊沙特的采油設備。
The U.S. response to all these has been notably restrained, at times infuriatingly so from the perspective of allies.
每次美國的反應都相當克制，在盟友看來有時甚至克制地令人發指。
When the U.S. finally did respond with the shock escalation and assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force,
最后，美國終于加大突襲力度，暗殺了"圣城旅”指揮官卡西姆·索萊馬尼少將，
it sent a clear message to Iran that the U.S. was done being cautious.
便是在向伊朗發射明確的信號：美國已經謹慎夠了。
Trump has argued in the past that his at-times erratic approach is to his advantage:
過去，特朗普曾辯稱，他有時采取反復無常的策略恰好也是他的優勢：
“I don’t want people to know exactly what I’m doing—or thinking. I like being unpredictable. It keeps them off balance.”
“我不想讓別人確切地知道我在做什么或想什么。我喜歡讓人摸不透。這樣他們就會自亂陣腳。”
In a world as chaotic as ours,
在我們這樣混亂的社會，
it’s a questionable strategy (especially when it comes to dealing with our allies) but one that has paid dividends in this case.
這樣的策略確實未必可靠（尤其是在與我們的盟友打交道的時候）但這一次還是收到了一定的成效。
Had Iran not shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752,
如果伊朗沒有擊落烏克蘭國際航空公司的752次航班，
it’s possible the rest of the world would be applauding Iran for its attempt to de-escalate tensions
國際社會或許就會稱贊伊朗緩解緊張局勢的做法，
by shooting missiles into two U.S. military bases in Iraq
包括往伊拉克境內的兩個美軍基地發射導彈，
and giving enough warning to ensure zero fatalities (though a few U.S. troops were wounded).
為確保零傷亡（盡管還是有幾名美軍受傷）給予基地足夠警告的做法。
But as it is, the Iranians’ misfire cost them any goodwill that the world was willing to spare Tehran’s regime.
然而眼下，伊朗的誤傷讓他們失去了國際社會放過德黑蘭政權一馬的任何好感。
Iran is now under massive pressure, from within and without.
從國內到國外，伊朗現在都面臨著巨大的壓力。
The Iranian people are suffering under tightening sanctions that have brought the country’s teetering economy to its knees.
日益嚴厲的制裁讓這個國家本就搖搖欲墜的經濟徹底被逼停，伊朗民眾為此飽受其苦。
The European signatories to the deal, while still hoping it can be salvaged in some way,
簽署伊朗核協議的歐洲國家，盡管仍然希望能用某種方式挽救這一協議，
are increasingly reluctant to spend their own political capital
已經越來越不愿意將他們的政治資本花在疑似和美國一樣堅決，
for an Iranian leadership that seems just as determined as the U.S. to force the world to choose sides, even at the cost of civilian lives.
即便要以平民的生命為代價，也要迫使國際社會選擇立場的伊朗領導層身上。
Germany, France and the U.K. have now triggered the dispute-resolution mechanism written into the JCPOA,
德國、法國和英國已經啟動寫入了JCPOA的爭端解決機制，
a clear signal to Iran that they are no longer willing to let Tehran inch closer to a nuclear weapon
這就等于向伊朗釋放了一個清晰的信號，在等2020年大選到來，希望美國民眾能投票支持特朗普下臺期間，
while they wait for the 2020 election and hope the American people vote Trump out of office.
他們已經不愿德黑蘭向核武器進一步靠近。
At this point, waiting out Trump is the only hope Tehran has left.
此時此刻，等特朗普下臺已經成了德黑蘭唯一的希望。
If Trump wins another term, it will be near impossible for Tehran to avoid renegotiating the nuclear deal if it wishes to escape sanctions.
如果特朗普連任成功，德黑蘭要想逃脫制裁，就幾乎不可能避開重新協商核協議。
But given just how large the divide between the country’s hard-liners and reformists has become, that’s a tall order.
然而，鑒于該國強硬派和改革派之間的分歧已經如此強烈，重新談判是一個很高的要求。
With the benefit of hindsight, it’s becoming clear that the biggest mistake Iran’s reformists made wasn’t signing the JCPOA,
事后看來，很明顯，伊朗的改革派犯下的最嚴重的錯誤并非簽訂了JCPOA，
but overselling the benefits of that deal to the public
而在于向公眾夸大這筆交易的好處
(a criticism that can also be lodged against the Obama Administration, if we’re being honest).
（這一批評也適用于奧巴馬政府，平心而論的話）。
A diplomatic breakthrough never came for Tehran, nor the economic revitalization that was promised them.
對德黑蘭而言，外交上的突破至今沒有，承諾給他們的經濟振興也未到來。
Achieving foreign-policy breakthroughs is hard enough.
取得外交政策的突破就已經夠難的了。
Overpromising and underdelivering on those breakthroughs can be a tragic mistake—
過度承諾這樣的突破還履行不足就會演變成悲劇性的錯誤——
a lesson that Iran’s leadership, America’s and the rest of the world’s leaders would do well to heed.
伊朗，美國，甚至是全世界的領導人都應該吸取這一教訓。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
