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A rift over migrants threatens Merkel’s coalition
移民問題上的分歧威脅默克爾聯(lián)盟
By Ian Bremmer
文/伊恩·布雷默
German chancellor Angela Merkel hasn’t had much chance to enjoy her fourth term.
德國總理默克爾并沒有多少機(jī)會(huì)享受第四次連任的喜悅。
In September elections, her party took its lowest vote share since 1949,
在9月份的選舉中，其政黨選票支持率降到了自1949年以來的最低水平，
partly because of an open-arms approach to Europe’s migrant crisis that cut into her popularity.
部分原因在于她對(duì)歐洲移民危機(jī)的開放態(tài)度降低了她的支持率。
It took her six months to woo reluctant partners into a coalition.
她花了足足6個(gè)月時(shí)間才說服了那些不情愿的伙伴加入她的聯(lián)盟。
And though crime and migration are both down, Merkel is in trouble once again.
盡管犯罪率和移民人數(shù)都在下降，默克爾還是再次陷入了泥潭。
Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, leader of the more conservative Bavarian party in coalition with Merkel,
內(nèi)務(wù)部長霍斯特·澤霍費(fèi)爾——此人也是與默克爾聯(lián)合的相對(duì)保守的巴伐利亞基督教社會(huì)聯(lián)盟的領(lǐng)袖——
expects a tough challenge in this fall’s regional elections from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
預(yù)計(jì)今年秋季的地區(qū)選舉中，極右翼政黨德國新選擇黨(AfD)將會(huì)對(duì)默克爾構(gòu)成嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。
That means he wants to get tough on immigrants,
這也意味著他有意采取強(qiáng)硬的移民措施，
including his plan to allow German police to turn away migrants at the border if they have already registered in another E.U. country.
例如，他已經(jīng)計(jì)劃允許德國警方在邊境拒絕已經(jīng)在另一個(gè)歐盟國家注冊(cè)的移民入境。
For Merkel, this undermines the principle of E.U. burden-sharing
對(duì)默克爾而言，此舉將會(huì)破壞歐盟有難同當(dāng)?shù)脑瓌t，
by forcing southern countries like Italy and Greece to take in more than their share of migrants.
因?yàn)檫@樣一來，南邊的意大利和希臘等國就要接收超額的移民。
But if Merkel fires Seehofer, his party will leave her coalition and she will no longer have a majority of seats in Parliament.
問題是，如果默克爾解雇澤霍費(fèi)爾，澤霍費(fèi)爾的政黨將會(huì)離開她的聯(lián)盟，她也將無法再擁有議會(huì)的多數(shù)席位。
That could mean new elections—and polls suggest her party is even less popular now than in 2017.
這就意味著可能需要重新選舉——民調(diào)顯示，其政黨現(xiàn)在的受歡迎程度還不如2017年。
Merkel may well survive this latest challenge.
默克爾很可能會(huì)熬過這次挑戰(zhàn)。
Seehofer knows a government collapse followed by new elections will only strengthen his far-right rivals in Bavaria.
澤霍費(fèi)爾深知，隨著重新選舉而來的政府垮臺(tái)只會(huì)讓他在巴伐利亞黨內(nèi)的極右翼對(duì)手更加強(qiáng)大。
And Merkel still has solid-looking support within her own party and a national approval rating at 50%.
而默克爾在其黨內(nèi)的地位尚未被動(dòng)搖，其全國支持率也仍有50%。
Asylum applications in Germany fell from about 720,000 in 2016 to 200,000 in 2017.
德國難民庇護(hù)申請(qǐng)的數(shù)量也已經(jīng)從2016年的72萬件下降到2017年的20萬件。
Despite President Trump’s false claim to the contrary, crime in Germany stands at its lowest level since 1992.
此外，盡管特朗普總統(tǒng)做出了相反的虛假聲明，德國的犯罪率已經(jīng)降低到1992年以來的最低水平。
But this is the wrong time for a weakened Merkel.
然而，對(duì)于勢力已經(jīng)有所減弱的默克爾難說，這一切發(fā)生的不是時(shí)候。
At home, divisions within her coalition will embolden the far-right opposition to push harder on migration.
就國內(nèi)而言，其聯(lián)盟內(nèi)部的分歧將會(huì)助長極右反對(duì)派在移民問題上采取更加強(qiáng)硬的措施。
In Europe, she wants leaders to consider a blocwide solution at a June 28 summit.
就整個(gè)歐洲而言，她希望各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能在6月28日的峰會(huì)上針對(duì)難民問題考慮整體解決方案。
But with Italy’s new government turning away boatloads of desperate people,
然而，隨著意大利新政府將一船又一船絕望的難民拒之門外，
the migration issue is entering a new and dangerous phase in European politics.
歐洲政治中的移民問題已經(jīng)上升到了危險(xiǎn)的新高度。
And it comes just as Merkel, the leader best able to force compromise, is in the weakest position to forge one.
然而，此時(shí)正值默克爾，這位最擅長強(qiáng)行促成讓步的領(lǐng)袖處于最不利的地位。
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