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時(shí)代周刊:中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)或迅速升級(jí)(2)

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Once-promising negotiations for a brokered truce with China have all but stopped—Navarro says,

原本充滿希望的,通過(guò)斡旋與中國(guó)達(dá)成停火協(xié)議的談判已經(jīng)中止——納瓦羅說(shuō),
“Our phone lines are open”—and trade officials are stretched thin dealing with other fights with Canada, Mexico and a raft of European countries.
“我們的電話線路是開(kāi)放的”——貿(mào)易官員們已經(jīng)疲于應(yīng)付與加拿大、墨西哥以及許多歐洲國(guó)家的爭(zhēng)端。
“We have a front opened up on the E.U., China and NAFTA,” says Carlos Gutierrez,
“我們同歐盟,中國(guó),北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定圈都已經(jīng)開(kāi)戰(zhàn),”
the U.S. Secretary of Commerce under George W. Bush and chair of the Albright Stonebridge Group.
曾任喬治·W·布什政府的商務(wù)部長(zhǎng),現(xiàn)任奧爾布賴特石橋集團(tuán)董事長(zhǎng)卡洛斯·古鐵雷斯說(shuō)道。
“That’s pretty much the world’s economy right there.”
“差不多相當(dāng)于對(duì)整個(gè)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)戰(zhàn)了。”
YOU MAY NOT HAVE FELT the pinch of the trade war yet,
大環(huán)境或許還沒(méi)有感受到貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)帶來(lái)的沖擊,
but experts say that if Trump continues as promised, large swaths of the American public will get hit.
但專家表示,如果特朗普繼續(xù)我行我素,將會(huì)有大量美國(guó)民眾深受貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的影響。
To understand the effects of tariffs,
要了解關(guān)稅的影響,
look no further than washing machines and solar panels, for which Trump announced tariffs in January.
大家不必舍近求遠(yuǎn),只需看看特朗普今年1月宣布的對(duì)洗衣機(jī)和太陽(yáng)能電池板征收關(guān)稅一事的后果就知道了。
The price of laundry equipment has spiked 17% over the past three months after years of decline, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,洗衣設(shè)備的價(jià)格多年來(lái)一直在持續(xù)下跌,但過(guò)去三個(gè)月已經(jīng)回漲了足足17%。
And more than $2.5 billion in U.S. solar projects have been scrapped thanks to the tariffs, according to a Reuters analysis.
路透社的分析報(bào)告顯示,因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅,還有價(jià)值超過(guò)25億美元的太陽(yáng)能項(xiàng)目被取消。

2

The new retaliatory tariffs announced by Beijing take aim at $50 billion in goods from industries in politically sensitive places:

北京推出的報(bào)復(fù)性關(guān)稅政策將矛頭對(duì)準(zhǔn)了500億美元政治敏感地區(qū)輸出的商品:
soybeans from Iowa, autos from the Rust Belt and orange juice from Florida.
愛(ài)荷華出產(chǎn)的大豆,鐵銹地帶出產(chǎn)的汽車以及佛羅里達(dá)出產(chǎn)的橙汁。
People in those swing states are taking notice.
這些搖擺州的民眾已經(jīng)察覺(jué)到了問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性。
“If we lose trade to China, our neighbors to the south will be glad to take up that trade,”
“如果我們失去與中國(guó)的貿(mào)易,我們南邊的鄰居會(huì)很高興接手,”
says John Heisdorfer, an Iowa farmer and the president of the American Soybean Association.
愛(ài)荷華州農(nóng)民、美國(guó)大豆協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)約翰·海斯多夫說(shuō)道。
Meanwhile, markets have responded poorly to Trump’s tariffs play, dipping repeatedly with new announcements.
與此同時(shí),市場(chǎng)對(duì)特朗普的關(guān)稅表演——不斷有新的聲明出現(xiàn)——的反應(yīng)并不理想。
Even an internal assessment from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the New York Times reported,
據(jù)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道,即使是白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)的內(nèi)部評(píng)估,
found that Trump’s trade agenda would hurt the U.S. economy.
也已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)特朗普的貿(mào)易議程將有害于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。
In the meantime, tax cuts and spending have exacerbated the trade deficit, which Trump ostensibly hopes to reduce—
與此同時(shí),減稅和支出加劇了貿(mào)易赤字,而特朗普明顯是希望減少貿(mào)易赤字的——
although his former adviser Gary Cohn said at a recent Washington Post event
盡管他的前顧問(wèn)加里·科恩最近在《華盛頓郵報(bào)》主辦的一次活動(dòng)上表示,
that “a trade deficit doesn’t matter” and can even be “helpful to our economy.”
“貿(mào)易赤字無(wú)關(guān)緊要”,甚至可能“有利于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展”。
But Trump has remained determined to carry out his trade agenda, in contrast to his vacillations on other issues.
但特朗普依然堅(jiān)持要推行他的貿(mào)易議程,他的這一舉動(dòng)與他在其他問(wèn)題上的猶豫不決形成了鮮明的對(duì)比。
And he is counting on the tough-on-China play to deliver a win for his base and give Republicans a boost in the midterm elections.
他還指望對(duì)中國(guó)采取強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度能夠?yàn)樗恼侮嚑I(yíng)扳回一局,提振共和黨人在中期選舉中的表現(xiàn)。
As he waits on the political effects to play out in November, the question is whether the economic effects will be felt by then too.
如今,他正等待著他的這一舉措能夠在11月的中期選舉中發(fā)揮其政治影響,問(wèn)題是屆時(shí)其經(jīng)濟(jì)影響是否也會(huì)顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。

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