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A China trade war could escalate quickly
中美貿易戰或迅速升級
By Justin Worland
文/賈斯汀·沃德蘭
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S LOOMING TRADE WAR with China ratcheted up so quickly, you might have missed it.
特朗普總統向中國發動貿易戰之日在即，目前形勢變化頗為迅速，稍不留神你可能就已錯過一場好戲。
On June 15, Trump announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports.
6月15日，特朗普宣布對從中國進口的價值500億美元的商品征收關稅。
Within minutes, China responded in kind, targeting a range of goods from soybeans to electric vehicles,
幾分鐘后，中方便以其人之道還治其人之身，宣布對從大豆到電動汽車的一系列美國進口商品征收關稅，
prompting Trump three days later to order his trade office to find an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to target.
致使特朗普在三天后命令其貿易辦公室篩選出另外一批價值2000億美元的中國商品作為關稅征收對象。
Pre-emptively, Trump said he would be willing to bring the total value of Chinese goods targeted for tariffs to $450 billion.
特朗普先發制人地表示，他會很樂意將征收關稅的中國商品的價值總額提高到4500億美元。
“We have to,” Trump told reporters as he rolled out the initial round.
“沒辦法，”特朗普在推出首輪征收關稅政策時告訴記者。
“We’ve been treated very unfairly.”
“我們受到了頗不公平的待遇。”
For Trump, who has asserted that trade wars are “easy to win,”
在曾經斷言貿易戰“輕而易舉就能打贏”的特朗普看來，
the escalating tariffs represent the fulfilment of a campaign promise
日益升級的中美貿易戰恰好代表著他在兌現2016年大選時他曾許下的，
to crack down on Beijing and reduce the U.S. trade deficit in order to support American jobs.
打擊北京，縮減美國貿易赤字，重振國內就業市場的承諾。
But economists, business leaders and trade experts on both sides of the aisle have cried foul,
然而，國會兩黨的經濟學家，商界領袖和貿易專家不約而同地抱怨連連，
arguing that trade wars are a dangerous game that could hurt the economy at home and globally.
聲稱貿易戰是一場危險的游戲，不僅會損害國內經濟，還會損害全球經濟。
The prospect of a trade war is particularly dangerous when it comes to China, the U.S.’s largest goods-trading partner.
同中國發生貿易戰將尤為危險，因中國是美國最大的貿易合作伙伴。
Products from the country are integrated into global supply chains,
該國的產品已經融入全球供應鏈，
and the U.S. sends it billions of dollars’ worth of agricultural products, vehicles and machinery each year.
此外，美國每年都向中國輸出了價值數十億美元的農產品、汽車和機械設備。
“China has a fairly predictable pattern of responding immediately and with pretty stiff tariffs,”
“中國面對貿易戰的反應是有很強的可預見性的，那就是迅速的反應，并且是相當高的關稅政策。”
says Ron Kirk, who was the U.S. Trade Representative under President Obama.
曾在奧巴馬執政期間擔任美國貿易代表的羅恩·柯克說道。
“Whenever you get in this tit-for-tat escalation and retaliations, it generally is not so good.”
“無論何時陷入這種針鋒相對的升級和報復爭端之中，結果都不會很好看。”
Most economists generally say tariffs are the wrong way to tackle the issue
經濟學家大多表示關稅并非正確的解決之道，
and instead advocate for bringing China to the table with pressure from free-trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which Trump withdrew the U.S. last year.
他們主張借助跨太平洋伙伴關系——去年，特朗普剛宣布美國退出這一協定——之類的自由貿易協定引導中國走上談判桌。
The decisive rollout of this latest set of actions left little opportunity for discussion or compromise,
最近，在特朗普一系列果斷行動的作用下，中美雙方展開討論或讓步的機會已經接近于零，
and the fast-moving nature of the back-and-forth means it will be difficult to halt.
這場拉鋸戰的瞬息萬變也意味著它已經很難剎住車。
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