Japan’s decision to limit exports is economically shortsighted, as it should know since it has itself been on the other side of such controls. When China restricted exports of rareearth minerals in 2011, Japan responded by investing in its own mines. China’s market share dropped. Already, the South Korean government is discussing plans to foster the domestic chemicals production. Japan insists that South Korean companies will, once approved, still be able to buy its chemicals, but the threat of an embargo, once issued, cannot be easily dispelled.
日本限制出口的決定在經濟上是短視的，這是日本應該知道的，因為日本一直處于這種控制的另一邊。2011年，當中國限制稀土出口時，日本的反應是投資本國礦山。韓國政府已經在討論促進國內化學品生產的計劃。日本堅持認為，韓國公司一旦獲得批準，仍然可以購買日本的化學品，但禁運的威脅一旦發出，就不可能輕易消除。
The broader geopolitical context makes Japan’s self-harm even more reckless. Regional supply chains are already under assault. South Korean and Japanese companies are scrambling to find alternatives to China as a manufacturing base to avoid American tariffs. Mr Trump has threatened both countries with import duties on their cars.
更廣泛的地緣政治背景使得日本的自殘行為更加魯莽。區域供應鏈已經受到了沖擊。韓國和日本企業正爭先恐后地尋找中國以外的制造業基地，以避免美國的關稅。特朗普威脅要對兩國的汽車征收進口稅。
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Ultimately, it is up to South Korea and Japan to repair relations. But America’s waning interest in diplomacy does not help. And Mr Trump is normalising the use of trade weapons in political spats. His tactics teach others how to find an excuse for these actions: by citing national security. Japanese media have suggested that South Korea has allowed the shipment of sensitive chemicals to North Korea, a far-fetched claim but one that could feature in a defence of its export restrictions. Under a different president, America would be doing more to bind together Japan and South Korea, two indispensable allies. Barack Obama pushed the Trans-Pacific Partnership that included Japan, and that South Korea was expected to join eventually. One of Mr Trump’s first acts was to ditch that deal.
最終，修復關系將取決于韓國和日本。但美國對外交興趣的減弱也無濟于事。特朗普正在將貿易武器在政治爭端中的使用正常化。他的策略教會了其他人如何為這些行為找借口:以國家安全為由。日本媒體曾暗示，韓國已允許向朝鮮運送敏感化學品，這一說法牽強附會，但可能是為其出口限制辯護的一個理由。如果換一個總統，美國將會做更多的事情來團結日本和韓國，這是兩個不可或缺的盟友。巴拉克•奧巴馬推動了包括日本在內的跨太平洋伙伴關系協定，預計韓國最終也會加入。特朗普的第一反應之一就是放棄該協議。
It is not too late to defuse the situation. The commercial damage has been limited so far. Japan is aware that, notwithstanding America’s current tactics, export controls look bad; it is thus susceptible to pressure from other trading partners. The two countries will discuss their disagreement at the World Trade Organisation later this month. This is shaping up to be a test of whether the global trading system can, despite great strains, still soothe tensions—or whether it is being supplanted by a new, meaner order, in which supply chains are weaponised and commerce is purely an extension of politics.
現在緩和局勢還為時不晚。到目前為止，商業損失有限。日本意識到，盡管美國采取了當前的策略，但出口控制看上去很糟糕；因此，中國很容易受到其他貿易伙伴的壓力。兩國將于本月晚些時候在世界貿易組織討論他們的分歧。這將是對全球貿易體系的一次考驗，看它能否在巨大的壓力下仍能緩解緊張局勢，或者是否正被一種新的、更為苛刻的秩序所取代，在這種秩序下，供應鏈被武器化，商業純粹是政治的延伸。
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