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Now the risk report by Ian Bremmer
下面是伊恩·布雷默供稿的一則風險報告
Trade Battles Between the U.S. and China Enter a Perilous New Phase
中美貿易戰進入危險的新階段
NOT SO LONG AGO, U.S. leaders predicted that
不久前，美國領導人還預測，
economic development and the birth of a middle class in China would inevitably move that nation toward democracy.
經濟發展和中產階級的崛起將不可避免地推動中國走向民主。
Instead, China’s leadership has profited from a weaker West.
然而，西方世界的下滑讓中國領導層坐收了漁利。
It has seized on opportunities created by European fragmentation and political dysfunction in Washington
他們抓住了歐洲分裂、華盛頓政治失調這一機遇，
to offer China as an alternative model of stability and development.
將中國打造成了另一種穩定和發展的模式。
Another mistake by the U.S.: lawmakers doubted that China would ever become technologically innovative.
美國犯下的另一個錯誤是國會議員十分質疑中國的技術創新能力。
They believed that, like the Soviet Union, China’s state-dominated economic system would hit a wall when it came to developing new ideas.
他們以為，中國的計劃經濟體制追求新思路時會和蘇聯一樣碰壁。
Instead, China learned from Soviet mistakes.
然而，中國吸取了蘇聯的教訓。
Now China is investing huge sums in the artificial intelligence,
如今，中國正在大力投資人工智能，機器人和數據管理創新等領域，
robotics and data-management innovations that will determine tomorrow’s balance of power.
而這些領域即將決定國際社會今后的力量對比。
China’s President Xi Jinping declared in October that the nation must become a technological superpower.
中國的國家主席習近平去年10月就已宣布，中國必須成為技術超級大國。
He has repeatedly emphasized the need to shed dependence on foreign intellectual property.
他一直在反復強調擺脫依賴外國知識產權的重要性。
“Indigenous innovation” and technological self-reliance are now core to China’s development strategy.
如今，“自主創新”和技術自主已成為中國發展戰略的核心。
His Made in China 2025 program, backed with huge state subsidies for its tech sector, is central to Xi’s vision.
成為技術超級大國這一愿景最為核心的部分就是他提出的“中國制造2025計劃”，而政府對該計劃的科技板塊的補助可謂十分可觀。
ON MAY 29, President Trump launched an offensive against that plan.
5月29日，特朗普總統對該計劃發起了攻勢。
To protect its national security, the White House said in a statement,
白宮在一份聲明中表示，為了保護國家安全，
the U.S. will restrict investment in and control exports of “industrially significant technology.”
美國將限制對“行業核心技術”的投資并控制其出口。
The Trump Administration proposes to slap 25% tariffs on some $50 billion of Chinese tech imports, including those related to the vaunted Made in China 2025 program.
特朗普政府提議對價值500億美元左右的中國輸美科技商品，包括那些與“中國制造2025”計劃有關的產品加征25%的關稅。
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