評論
打印
THE DETERRENCE DEBATE
威懾之爭
By James Stavridis
文/詹姆斯·斯塔夫里蒂斯
President Trump and Kim Jong Un’s courtship has been nothing if not fickle.
特朗普總統(tǒng)和金正恩的關(guān)系一直反復(fù)無常。
And so as the summit over North Korea’s nuclear weapons veers from on-again to off-again,
因此，既然有關(guān)朝鮮核武器的峰會時斷時續(xù)，
the world should consider the thinking of three distinguished U.S. military officers—
國際社會就應(yīng)該分析分析美國三大軍官的思維方式——
two of whom just took pivotal posts in these turbulent times.
其中兩人都是剛剛在整個風(fēng)云變幻的時代接任了關(guān)鍵職位。
I know each of them very well from our decades of service and my time in the Pacific Fleet and as NATO Supreme Commander:
因為我們四人都服役了數(shù)十年，加上我還在太平洋艦隊服役過，還擔(dān)任過北約最高指揮官，我對他們?nèi)硕加蓄H深的了解：
General James Mattis, the Secretary of Defense;
國防部長詹姆斯·馬蒂斯將軍；
Admiral Harry Harris, who was officially nominated for U.S. ambassador to South Korea the day before Trump withdrew from the summit with Kim;
川普退出與金正恩的峰會前一天正式提名的美國駐韓大使，海軍上將哈里·哈里斯；
and Admiral Phil Davidson, Harris’ new successor as commander of the vast U.S. Pacific Command.
以及接任哈里斯美國太平洋司令部司令的海軍上將菲爾·戴維森。
Together, they own the problem of determining how to return the U.S. to full-bore deterrence—
他們?nèi)斯餐袚?dān)著決定如何讓美國恢復(fù)全方位威懾力的責(zé)任——
and giving the President new options for military strikes if the negotiations fail.
還有談判失敗后為總統(tǒng)提供軍事打擊新選項的責(zé)任。
What will their counsel be to the mercurial President?
他們會對特朗普這位善變的總統(tǒng)做出怎樣的建議呢？
Let’s start with Mattis.
我們先來分析馬蒂斯會給出怎樣的建議。
The decision about what actions the U.S. should take will likely play out in a three-way conversation among him, National Security Adviser John Bolton and the President.
美國應(yīng)該采取何種行動的決策可能要經(jīng)由馬蒂斯，國家安全顧問約翰·博爾頓和總統(tǒng)的三方會談?wù)Q生。
Mattis is a thoughtful strategist with a deep sense of history—essentially the opposite of Trump.
馬蒂斯是一位深思熟慮的戰(zhàn)略家，對歷史有著很深的了解——基本和特朗普是完全不同的兩個人。
The President will continue to largely shoot from the hip:
總統(tǒng)很大程度上可能都會選擇繼續(xù)不假思索魯莽行事：
he’ll ignore both the briefings and intelligence presented to him, and will remain inclined to swing for the fences,
無論是遞交給他的簡報還是情報他都將選擇視而不見，并一如既往地傾向于孤注一擲，
if not in a summit, then in some kind of preemptive strike.
屆時如果不是在峰會上，那就是某個先發(fā)制人的場合。
Mattis will face the challenge of counseling patience, while offering options for sanctions (again);
馬蒂斯將面臨一邊耐心提供咨詢，一邊提供制裁（再次）；
cyber, intelligence and missile defense; perhaps a naval blockade; and even both limited and massive strikes.
網(wǎng)絡(luò)防御、情報防御和導(dǎo)彈防御；或許還有海上封鎖；甚至是有限打擊和大規(guī)模打擊等選項的挑戰(zhàn)。
Harris, a Japanese American, will be parachuting into high drama.
哈里斯，日裔美國人，則會空投充滿戲劇性的建議。
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who had invested excessively in relationship-building with Kim,
為與金正恩修好不計代價的韓國總統(tǒng)文在寅
will be anxious to heal the wounds inflicted by Trump’s calling off the talks.
則會迫不及待地想愈合特朗普叫停會談造成的創(chuàng)傷。
Harris understands why.
對此，哈里斯堪稱是心如明鏡。
He knows the Korean War plans better than anyone and grasps exactly how devastating a war on the Korean Peninsula would be.
他比任何人都更了解朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭的計劃，也更清楚朝鮮半島的戰(zhàn)爭會造成怎樣的災(zāi)難。
He and his wife Bruni will also be located at ground zero.
屆時，他和妻子布魯尼都將成為直接的攻擊目標(biāo)。
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