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The newest member of the senior decision-making group is Admiral Phil Davidson,
最晚加入該高級決策小組的是海軍上將菲爾·戴維森，
who is responsible for the entire military structure in the Pacific and a headquarters in Pearl Harbor.
他負責美國在整個太平洋的軍事架構及珍珠港的一個海軍總部。
He arrives from a strictly Navy job in command of the overall U.S. fleet.
加入該小組前，他是負責指揮整個美國艦隊的海軍司令。
However, he is a creative thinker, with deep intellectual capability.
然而，他也是一位具有創造性思維且足智多謀的司令。
He was hand-selected when he was a one-star to build a new diplomatic operational structure for Afghanistan and Pakistan—
當他還是一星將軍時，就被總統親自挑選去為阿富汗和巴基斯坦建設新型外交組織結構——
an unusual assignment for a Navy admiral, and one so complex, it would have led many to quit.
這一任務很少交由海軍上將，因為任務過于復雜，即便交給他們，很多人也都會半途而廢。
Davidson is close to Harris.
戴維森和哈里斯關系密切。
Both admirals will be very skeptical of jumping into a war with North Korea,
兩位海軍上將都將對與朝鮮開戰，
or even a limited strike (the so-called bloody-nose option).
甚至是對朝鮮進行有限打擊(所謂的“流鼻血”作戰)持懷疑態度。
They will support Mattis’ caution.
他們都會支持馬蒂斯的謹慎。
While each of these senior leaders will be part of the ultimate conversation in the Situation Room,
盡管三位高級領導都將參與戰情室的終極對話，
the command relationships are complicated.
但三人的指揮關系錯綜復雜。
Harris technically reports directly to the President,
嚴格來講，哈里斯應直接聽命于總統，
but in reality communicates through Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (another key player, who will likely take a moderate position).
實際上卻要通過國務卿邁克·蓬佩奧(另一位關鍵人物，這位屆時可能采取溫和立場)與總統溝通。
Davidson technically reports directly to the Secretary of Defense,
戴維森應直接聽命于國防部長，
but in reality coordinates and communicates largely through the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
實際主要跟參謀長聯席會議主席協調對接。
IN THE END, though, all of the caution from the military will go through Bolton, who reports only to the President.
不過，軍方所有的謹慎之舉最終都要過博爾頓這關，而博爾頓只聽命于總統。
This will create tension.
這一復雜的指揮關系勢必會制造緊張的氣氛。
It is Bolton’s job to present these views to Trump with honesty.
因為誠實地向特朗普轉述三人的觀點是博爾頓的本職工作。
But it is Bolton’s nature to inject his strong and decisive personality into the debate,
但從博爾頓的秉性來看，他會做出與他堅強果斷的個性一致的反應，
and he is unlikely to come down on the side of the angels in finding a diplomatic solution.
不太可能與三位天使站到一邊，尋求外交途徑解決問題。
Everything we know about Bolton would tell us that he will pursue the hard-power answer.
憑借我們對博爾頓的深刻了解，屆時他一定會訴諸“硬實力”。
He lives in a zero-sum world, in which danger lurks in every dimension;
他奉行的是零和博弈的準則，在他的世界里，危險無處不在；
this causes him to overcompensate on the side of military force. (There are times when that makes sense. This is not one.)
導致他經常在軍事方面矯枉過正。(有時他這樣做也講得通。但這次情形不同。)
Because of this organizational structure, paired with this personal tendency,
因為這種組織結構，加上博爾頓的這種個人傾向，
the chance of combat ultimately rises—despite these officers’ likely counsel against it.
爆發戰爭的可能性最終還是增加了——盡管那些軍官可能建議避免引發戰爭。
Hopefully, America can find its way toward a diplomatic course, nonetheless.
不過，美國還是有希望通過外交途徑解決問題。
But these officers will need to help develop a nuanced negotiating stance in order to land this crisis without a fight.
只不過，這些官員需要幫助制定細致入微的談判立場，以便不戰而解決這場危機。
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