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新聞周刊:美國專家預測,美伊戰爭將以雙方的災難告終(4)

時間:2019-07-08 19:27:00 來源:可可英語編輯:Magi ? 可可英語APP下載 | 可可官方微信:ikekenet

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But, Byman noted, such a move is akin to "high stakes poker" and could backfire. Not only would Iran be undermining its own ability to export oil, but the knock-on effects on the global economy could drive the international community to drop their skepticism and rally around the U.S. Thus far, Tehran has been able to portray itself as the reasonable party, Byman explained. "Close the straits and that changes."

但是，拜曼指出，這種做法類似于“豪賭撲克”，可能會適得其反。伊朗不僅會削弱自己的石油出口能力，還會對全球經濟產生連鎖反應，促使國際社會打消疑慮，團結在美國周圍。拜曼解釋說，到目前為止，德黑蘭能夠把自己描繪成一個理性的政黨?！瓣P閉海峽，情況就會改變?！?/div>

The most likely U.S. approach—if indeed war was to break out—would be a limited campaign of airstrikes, potentially alongside special operations raids and cyber attacks, Byman suggested. "I think the Trump administration is, in general, reluctant to expand the US presence on the ground in the Middle East, and do things that might include US casualties," he explained.

拜曼表示，如果真的爆發戰爭，美國最有可能采取的方式是發動有限的空襲，可能還會進行特別行動襲擊和網絡攻擊。“我認為，總的來說，特朗普政府不愿意擴大美國在中東的勢力，不愿意做可能包括美國傷亡在內的事情。”他解釋說。

Even small victories for Iran could represent a victory. "Iran might achieve local victories," Byman noted, such as inflicting casualties on U.S. forces or even sinking a ship, "but the overall outcome of this conflict is pretty well-known."

對伊朗來說，即使是小小的勝利也可能代表著一場勝利。“伊朗可能取得局部勝利，”拜曼指出，例如造成美軍傷亡，甚至擊沉一艘船，“但這場沖突的總體結果是眾所周知的?！?/div>

"It's a potential disaster for the Iranians militarily, but they might be able to achieve propaganda victories, which really matter," Byman added. "Victory is a political achievement," he suggested, but warned that the U.S. Navy will be ready, having prepared for this war for 30 years.

“這對伊朗的軍事來說是一個潛在的災難，但他們也許能夠取得宣傳上的勝利，這才是真正重要的，”拜曼補充道?！皠倮且豁椪纬删?，”他建議，但警告說，美國海軍將做好準備，他們為這場戰爭已經準備了30年。

Human, financial, political—a conflict would come with many costs. Freeman noted a war would likely lack the support of the U.S. public and Congress. "If asked to authorize such a war, Congress would almost certainly refuse. So, in addition to being a foreign policy crisis, the current tensions with Iran are also part of the constitutional crisis in the United States, where executive authority now vastly exceeds its constitutional mandate."

人力、財力、政治上的沖突都會帶來很多代價。弗里曼指出，戰爭可能會缺乏美國公眾和國會的支持。“如果被要求授權發動這樣一場戰爭，國會幾乎肯定會拒絕。因此，除了外交政策危機，目前與伊朗的緊張關系也是美國憲法危機的一部分，美國的行政權力現在大大超過了憲法授權?！?/div>

While both sides have vowed they are not seeking conflict, Byman warned that "both sides may take steps that make the situation more dangerous." New military deployments, force preparations and harsh words may all be designed to warn opponents, but could be taken as direct threats. "The message they're trying to send is, 'Don't mess with us,'" Byman explained. "But the message could be interpreted as, 'We're coming after you.'"

雖然雙方都誓言不尋求沖突，但拜曼警告說，“雙方都可能采取措施，使局勢更加危險?！毙碌能娛虏渴稹⒉筷牅蕚浜蛧绤柕难赞o可能都是為了警告對手，但也可能被視為直接威脅。“他們想傳達的信息是，‘別惹我們，’”拜曼解釋道?！暗@則信息可以被解讀為，‘我們就在你后面?！?/p>

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重點單詞		查看全部解釋
potentially	[pə'tenʃəli]	想一想再看 adv. 潛在地
reluctant	[ri'lʌktənt]	想一想再看 adj. 不情愿的，勉強的
conflict	['kɔnflikt]	想一想再看 n. 沖突，矛盾，斗爭，戰斗 vi. 沖突，爭	聯想記憶 X 單詞conflict 聯想記憶： con共同，flict打－共同打－沖突；斗爭
global	['gləubəl]	想一想再看 adj. 全球性的，全世界的，球狀的，全局的	聯想記憶 X 單詞global 聯想記憶：北京有一個global的廳
achieve	[ə'tʃi:v]	想一想再看 v. 完成，達到，實現
overall	[əuvə'rɔ:l]	想一想再看 adj. 全部的，全體的，一切在內的 adv.
limited	['limitid]	想一想再看 adj. 有限的，被限制的動詞limit的過
presence	['prezns]	想一想再看 n. 出席，到場，存在 n. 儀態，風度
constitutional	[.kɔnsti'tju:ʃənl]	想一想再看 adj. 憲法的，合乎憲法的，體質的，組成的 n. 散步
potential	[pə'tenʃəl]	想一想再看 adj. 可能的，潛在的 n. 潛力，潛能