評論
打印
PROTECTIONISM'S FALSE PROMISE
保護主義的虛假承諾
Much of the criticism leveled against globalization today
當下，全球化之所以被批判，很大程度上
is related to the idea that it enriches the few, leaving the many behind.
都跟全球化只充實了個別人的腰包，大多數人都被甩在了后面這樣一種觀點有關。
The people making this argument frequently advocate for the wholesale abandonment of globalization—
持這種論點的人常常主張全盤拋棄全球化——
which would put the very existence of an international agenda at risk.
而這樣的做法是會危及國際事務的根本存在的。
It is understandable that policymakers are responding to their electorates' grievances.
政策制定者會響應選民的不滿也是情有可原。
While some people have benefited from globalization, large pockets of society have suffered—
因為雖然有些人享受到了全球化的紅利，但對從發展中國家的農民，
from farmers in the developing world to manufacturing and industrial workers in the West.
到西方國家制造業及工業從業者的很大一部分群體而言，全球化都是一場磨難。
But these frustrations have less to do with the ideal of globalization itself
但跟政客們近幾十年來推行的簡化版的全球化相比，
than the lite version that politicians have implemented over recent decades.
他們的挫折與全球化這一理想本身并無太大關系。
Regrettably, governments across the globe are pivoting today toward lesser political and economic models.
令人遺憾的是，各國政府如今都在朝著越來越少的政治和經濟模式發展。
These will offer quick wins but over the long term will reduce growth,
這樣做確實能收獲立竿見影的成效，但從長遠來看，反而會抑制增長，
increase poverty and spur more political and social unrest.
加劇貧困并引發更多的政治動蕩和社會動蕩。
Rather than address its shortcomings, this will only entrench the inferior form of globalization.
這樣做非但不能彌補全球化的不足，反而會進一步鞏固次等形式的全球化。
If the world continues on this isolationist path, three major shifts will happen.
如果國際社會繼續走這條孤立主義道路，未來將發生三個重大變化。
First, a more siloed world will force businesses to adopt increasingly local and decreasingly global models.
變化之一，國際社會進一步走向孤立，迫使企業越來越多地采用本地化模式、越來越少地采用全球化模式。
In essence, they will be more likely to rely on local and regional capital—
企業大體上都會更傾向于依賴地方和地區資本——
and less likely to be centrally run from leading financial centers such as New York City, Tokyo and London.
而不是由紐約、東京和倫敦等主要金融中心集中管理。
This change will significantly alter how businesses fund themselves,
這一變化將顯著改變企業的融資方式，
how they structure costs and how they view the proposition of long-term growth.
改變他們的成本規劃方式以及他們看待長期增長這一命題的方式。
They will be less able to access the global capital that is necessary to fund investments and grow companies—
企業獲得為資助投資和增長所必需的全球資本的能力就會打折——
reducing their opportunities to hire people and invest in communities.
企業雇傭員工和投資社區的機會也會隨之減少。
Second, there will be short-term deflation and then long-term inflation.
其次，屆時將出現短期通縮和長期通脹。
We've already begun to observe the former.
據我們觀察，前者現在已經出現了。
Low energy costs, low wages and indeed the low price of money itself (reflected in low interest rates)
能源成本低，工資低，甚至貨幣本身的價格也低(反映在利率低上)
indicate a prevailing deflationary world, though they all have notably risen recently.
這些都表明通貨緊縮仍在繼續，盡管近期上述三者的水平都已明顯上漲。
As for the latter, the persistence of low inflation has defied warnings of a sharp uptick
就長期通脹來說，低通脹的持續已經打破了
that date as far back as 2009, right after the financial crisis.
早在2009年金融危機爆發后就已出現的通脹率大幅上漲的警告。
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