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Time’s almost up to spare NAFTA from Trump’s chopping block
挽救《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》已經(jīng)時日無多
THE IRAN NUCLEAR deal isn’t the only major agreement that President Trump promised voters he would either rewrite or tear up.
伊朗核協(xié)議并不是特朗普總統(tǒng)承諾選民他要么會修改要么會徹底撕毀的唯一一大協(xié)議。
After nine months of talks,
經(jīng)過了9個月的會談，
U.S., Mexican and Canadian negotiators remain deadlocked on how to rework, and save, the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA).
美墨加三方的談判代表們在如何重寫，如何挽救《北美貿(mào)易協(xié)定》這一問題上仍舊僵持不下。
There’s now a renewed sense of urgency,
現(xiàn)在，因為達成協(xié)議，
because time is running out to reach a deal to spare NAFTA, the pact that has governed cross-border trade since 1994.
挽救自1994年以來一直指導跨境貿(mào)易的《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》的時間已經(jīng)所剩無幾，緊迫感又多了一重。
If no agreement is reached in May, things will become much more complicated.
如果5月份還不能達成協(xié)議，形勢就會變得復雜得多。
Here’s why:
原因如下：
Even if the three sides come to an agreement this month, Trump can’t just sign it into law.
即便三方真能在本月達成協(xié)議，特朗普也無法直接將其簽署為法律文件。
The U.S. Constitution gives Congress, and not the President, power to regulate commerce with foreign nations.
因為美國憲法將管理對外貿(mào)易的權(quán)力賦予了國會而非總統(tǒng)。
Under trade promotion rules, Trump must notify Congress 90 days before he intends to sign it.
根據(jù)貿(mào)易促進規(guī)則，特朗普若有意簽署協(xié)議，便要提前90天前通知國會。
Then the U.S. International Trade Commission must report to Congress on the likely impact of the deal before lawmakers can vote on it.
由國際貿(mào)易委員會向國會報告協(xié)議可能產(chǎn)生的影響，之后議會對協(xié)議進行表決。
That will take more time.
表決所需的時間則更長。
Then Congress has 90 session days before voting yes or no on the deal.
對協(xié)議表決同意或否決之前，國會有90天時間進行會議討論。
House Speaker Paul Ryan calculated that lawmakers would need to see a deal by May 17 in order to be able to vote on it this year.
眾議院議長保羅·瑞安估計，議員們要想在今年就該協(xié)議進行投票，就需要在5月17日前看到協(xié)議。
WHY THE HURRY?
為何要這么著急？
Because the political headwinds aren't in the deal's favor—
因為政治風向于這一協(xié)議不利——
and not just in the U.S., Canada's federal elections aren't due to be held until 2019,
而且，不僅是美國，加拿大的聯(lián)邦選舉也要到2019年才會舉行，
and in any case, both the Liberal and Conservative parties support NAFTA.
更何況，無論如何，自由黨和保守黨兩派都是支持《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》的。
But the situation in Mexico is more complicated.
不過，墨西哥的情況就復雜多了。
Mexicans will choose a new President on July 1.
7月1日，墨西哥就將敲定新總統(tǒng)。
The clear front runner in that election is the veteran leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
這屆選舉中，領(lǐng)先的明顯是左翼老將安德烈斯曼紐爾·洛佩茲·奧夫拉多爾。
He doesn't oppose a NAFTA renegotiation on principle,
原則上，他并不反對就《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》重新展開談判，
because he knows the loss would harm Mexico's economy far more than that of the U.S. or Canada.
因為他知道，如果談判失敗，墨西哥將要遭受的經(jīng)濟損失遠超美國和加拿大。
But if he wins and no deal has been agreed upon by the time he takes office in December,
但假如他選舉獲勝，且到他12月上任時三方依然沒有達成任何協(xié)議，
he will certainly replace virtually the entire Mexican negotiating team,
他勢必會換掉墨方的整個談判隊伍，
throwing the entire process back to an earlier stage.
讓談判進程倒退到之前的水平。
THEN THERE IS the complex political calculus in the U.S.,
此外，美國一方還有復雜的政治考量，
where many of the members of Congress who are facing re-election on Nov.6
因為將在11月6日面臨連任選舉的許多國會議員
are less than enthusiastic about casting a vote on a controversial trade deal.
都對就一項有爭議的貿(mào)易協(xié)議進行投票并不熱心。
Pro-trade Republican lawmakers may find themselves in a tough spot
如果特朗普提出一項阻止投資者在法庭上起訴外國政府，
if Trump presents them with a union friendly deal that prevents investors from being able to sue foreign governments in tribunals,
或者要求美國擴大汽車生產(chǎn)，
or requires more automobile production in the U.S.,
或者在協(xié)議中納入一項可能在5年后自動終止協(xié)議的落日條款的工會友好協(xié)議的話，
or includes a sunset clause that could automatically kill the deal after five years.
支持貿(mào)易的共和黨議員們可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們陷入了艱難的處境。
These are the sorts of changes that some Democrats will like and that Republicans and the business community won't want.
這些變化是一些民主黨人喜聞樂見，而共和黨人和商界人士卻不希望看到的。
Yet the midterm elections might come directly into play
然而，如果民主黨人控制了國會并決定，
if Democrats take control of Congress and decide that, even if they like many of the agreement's new terms,
即使他們喜歡協(xié)議中的許多新條款，他們也不想讓特朗普獲得政治勝利的話，
they don't want to hand Trump a political victory.
中期選舉便可能會直接發(fā)揮作用。
They might push for yet more changes to the deal,
他們可能會推動對協(xié)議進行更多的修改，
which would also give Mexico's López Obrador a chance to push for some amendments of his own.
繼而給墨西哥的洛佩斯·奧夫拉多爾創(chuàng)造推動他自己的一些修改的機會。
But the U.S. President's notoriously mercurial temperament is the X factor in all of this.
但美國總統(tǒng)那眾所周知的善變性情給整件事情蒙上了一層未知因素。
The longer a deal is delayed and the more it becomes an agreement that Democrats and López Obrador can get behind,
協(xié)議拖延的時間越長，協(xié)議就越會變成一份民主黨人和洛佩斯·奧夫拉多爾都將因此落后的協(xié)議，
the more likely that, as with the Iran nuclear deal, Trump will decide to simply walk away from NAFTA altogether.
協(xié)議也就越可能像伊朗核協(xié)議一樣發(fā)展到特朗普決定干脆完全退出《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》的地步。
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