Globalisation has slowed from light speed to a snail’s pace in the past decade for several reasons. The cost of moving goods has stopped falling. Multinational firms have found that global sprawl burns money and that local rivals often eat them alive. Activity is shifting towards services, which are harder to sell across borders: scissors can be exported in 20ft-containers, hair stylists cannot. And Chinese manufacturing has become more self-reliant, so needs to import fewer parts.
過去十年，全球化從光速放緩至蝸牛速，幾個(gè)原因如下。運(yùn)輸貨物的成本已停止下降。跨國(guó)公司發(fā)現(xiàn)，全球擴(kuò)張燒錢，而當(dāng)?shù)馗?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手常常將其生吞。商業(yè)活動(dòng)正轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)領(lǐng)域，這些領(lǐng)域更難跨國(guó)銷售：剪刀可以裝到20英尺集裝箱出口，但發(fā)型師不能。且中國(guó)制造業(yè)已經(jīng)變得更加自力更生，因此零部件進(jìn)口需求更低。
This is the fragile backdrop to Mr Trump’s trade war. Tariffs tend to get the most attention. If America ratchets up duties on China in March, as it has threatened, the average tariff rate on all American imports will rise to 3.4%, its highest for 40 years. (Most firms plan to pass the cost on to customers.) Less glaring, but just as pernicious, is that rules of commerce are being rewritten around the world. The principle that investors and firms should be treated equally regardless of their nationality is being ditched.
這就是特朗普貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的脆弱背景。最受關(guān)注的是關(guān)稅。若美國(guó)實(shí)踐其威脅論，在3月份提高對(duì)中國(guó)的關(guān)稅，那么所有美國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的平均關(guān)稅將上升到3.4%，為40年來的最高水平。（大多數(shù)公司計(jì)劃讓消費(fèi)者承擔(dān)成本。）世界各地正在重寫商業(yè)規(guī)則，雖然由此引起的負(fù)面影響沒那么大，但還是要引起警覺。原先的原則“無論哪個(gè)國(guó)家的投資者和公司都應(yīng)得到平等對(duì)待”正在被丟棄。
Evidence for this is everywhere. Geopolitical rivalry is gripping the tech industry, which accounts for about 20% of world stockmarkets. Rules on privacy, data and espionage are splintering. Tax systems are being bent to patriotic ends—in America to prod firms to repatriate capital, in Europe to target Silicon Valley. America and the EU have new regimes for vetting foreign investment. America has weaponised the power it gets from running the world’s dollar-payments system, to punish foreigners such as Huawei. Even humdrum areas such as accounting and antitrust are fragmenting.
而證據(jù)信手拈來。地緣政治的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)正困擾著占世界股市20%的科技行業(yè)。有關(guān)隱私、數(shù)據(jù)和間諜活動(dòng)的規(guī)定正分崩離析。稅收系統(tǒng)正出于愛國(guó)主義妥協(xié)——美國(guó)促使企業(yè)將資本匯回國(guó)內(nèi)，歐洲則以硅谷為目標(biāo)。美國(guó)和歐盟對(duì)于境外投資有一套新的審核制度，目標(biāo)是為懲罰諸如華為這樣的外企。就連會(huì)計(jì)和反壟斷等不起眼的領(lǐng)域也在分崩離析。
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