評論
打印
so the question is areas that have undergone this long term shift from one direction to another try to figure out what's making the change
他的問題是 不同的選區(qū)在各屆大選中 在兩黨間來回變化 導致這些變化的因素有哪些?
there are a number of categories
有一些主要的原因
you can put this into generation replacement
例如 不同年代出生人群的更替
different generations vote differently
不同年代出生的人有不同的投票傾向
and as the older generation passes away the new generation arises
隨著老一代的人離去 新一代的人出現(xiàn)
that can be significant
這種變化會非常明顯
conversion is completely a different matter
人的理念轉換是另一種原因
the Reagan Democrats
支持里根的民主黨人
blue-collar workers union people
指的是工會里的藍領工人
who had been very consistent Democratic voters
他們過去一直是民主黨的支持者
many of those switched to Republican voting in the 1980s
卻在20時間80年代轉而支持共和黨
that was not so much generation replacement as sort of conversion
這顯然不是與一代人的更替有關 而是一種傾向的變化
migration is another factor
移民是另一個因素
when we look at fast growing, also fast shrinking areas
當我們觀察那些人口迅速擴張 或者快速萎縮的地區(qū)
you've got people leaving
人們搬離這些地區(qū)
those who leave or not all going to be in the same situation
但無論這些居民離開與否 他們的投票傾向是不變的
many of the really declining counties in the Great Plains
在很多人口下降的縣 如在大平原地區(qū)
very elderly populations
人口年齡非常大
as younger people have moved
隨著年輕人搬離這些地區(qū)
so that changes the voting pattern in those counties
這些縣的投票傾向也隨之發(fā)生改變
many of the fast growing suburban fringe counties
很多位于城郊快速發(fā)展的縣
you're attracting people
在吸引越來越多的居民
a lot of those counties are getting young couples
這些縣吸引的主要是一些年輕的夫妻
and young couples with children tend to be a conservative voting group
有孩子的年輕家庭在投票上屬于保守的人群
I believe that among married people McCain won the election
我想在結了婚的人群中麥凱恩是占優(yōu)勢的
if you just took married population
如果僅看他們在已婚人群中的支持率
not by a huge amount but I believe he won that cohort
即使不是領先很多 但我想他的支持率是更高的
if you take people in their 30's with young children
在30歲左右有孩子的人群中
that tends to be even a little bit more Republican voting
他們是較為傾向支持共和黨的
and so those people are moving to these fast growing exurban counties
因此這些人移居到快速發(fā)展的城郊縣
which leads them partly to have this more Republican voting pattern
就使得這些縣更為地傾向于支持共和黨
but it depends on what state you're in
但這也要具體看是在什么州
some states those suburban fringe counties are very Republican voting
有些州的城郊縣的確非常支持共和黨
now in the Bay Area we don't see it at all
但在舊金山灣區(qū)則完全沒有這種現(xiàn)象
we saw it last election San Joaquin County, Stanislaus County
過去的選舉中圣華金縣 斯坦尼斯勞斯縣也有這種現(xiàn)象
we could consider that as sort of the far suburban fringe of San Francisco
我們可以將這兩個縣 勉強看作舊金山的遠郊
Republican voting but Democratic voting this election
過去它們支持共和黨 但這屆大選中都轉向了民主黨
but again a lot of political scientists do a lot of statistical analysis
很多研究政治的科學家做了很多相關的數(shù)據(jù)分析
they do a lot of polling
他們做了很多的民意調查
they run very careful regression analysis to try to tease out what are the causal factors
并進行仔細的回歸分析 以尋找導致選情變化的原因
I read that literature
我讀過相關的文獻
but I don't have enough of a background in statistics to do much more than use it
但我在統(tǒng)計學上沒有學術背景 所以我也只能看看結果
and it's just what I prefer to do is look at maps
所以我傾向于從地圖中尋找答案
and it's not as rigorous
雖然這樣沒那么嚴謹
but there are patterns that you can see by looking at maps
但你的確可以從地圖中看到一些聯(lián)系
that you often don't see with other kinds of statistical techniques
這些聯(lián)系可能是用其他統(tǒng)計工具發(fā)現(xiàn)不了的
I don't know how well I answered your question
不知道你是否滿意我的回答
