評論
打印
yes
請提問
the question has to do with the fact that we have private voting it's in secret
他的問題是選舉過程中 投票人的信息是保密的
but yes we have all these data telling us the people of certain ages and educational levels vote in a certain way
但我們卻總能得到關于某年齡層或某學歷人群投票情況的數據統計
most of this comes from exit-polling
這些結果多來自"選后民調"
where pollsters go and poll people as they're leaving the voting booth
調查者們在投票人離開投票箱時對他們進行調查
there are something called the National Election Study, I believe it's called
有一個叫做"國家選舉研究"的計劃 名字我應該沒記錯
which is a very substantial statistical study done after every election
這是一個很大型的數據調查研究計劃 在每次大選后進行
to try to tease out these demographic patterns
致力于跟蹤各種人群的投票傾向
I don't know what this...
我對這個了解的不多
again I'm not a statistician so I don't know what the margin of error would be and how good those are
畢竟我不是統計學家 我不清楚怎樣的誤差幅度才算合理以及結果到底有多可信
certainly we have problems to deal with
他們必須要解決一些影響準確性的問題
some people are going to answer those questions, others aren't
例如有些人愿意回答問題 有些人不愿意
some may not answer them honestly
有些人也許回答的不誠實
we know from...we know that the actual pre-election polling was very accurate this time
我們知道這次大選中選前的民調是非常準確的
the Bradley effect that people thought might come into play, didn't
所謂的布萊德利效應很多人認為很可能會出現 實際上并沒有出現
the effect that people telling pollsters
該效應是指受訪者告訴民調人員
that they were going to vote for an African American candidate and then they go into the voting booth they don't do it
他們會支持一位黑人候選人 但常常到了真正投票的時候 他們會改變主意
as evidently happened at one time in the California gubernatorial race
這種情況曾出現在布萊德利競選加州州長的時候
that didn't happen this time
但這次沒有發生
so those polls are pretty good
可見民調是非常準確的
but pollsters in the National Election Studies in this exit-polling
但國家選舉研究中進行選后調查的民調人員
they have to take into account that certain people are not gonna answer
需要考慮到那些不回答問題的人
and they're gonna have to try to figure out
剔除他們對結果精確性的影響
algorithms to figure out how those people would've voted
通過一些算法來計算 這些人究竟會如何投票
and I don't think there's any way to go back after the fact and test to see how accurate those were
但我想我們沒有辦法在大選后來檢驗這些選后調查的精確性
we can test pre-election polling the election test it
大選前的民調我們可以通過選情來檢驗精確性
but we can't test the post-election polling
而選后的民調則無法對證
so I really don't know
所以我也不確定
I just have to rely on the works of others and hoped that they're relatively accurate
我們只能更多地對比其他調查結果 希望它們統計的結果是相對準確的
but I can't vouch for it really
但我無法保證它的精確性
if anyone...I know some people here know more about polling than I do
如果你們...我知道在座有人比我更了解民調的細節
if anyone does please help us answer that question
有人愿意為我們解答這個問題嗎?
ok I'll move on to some other issues
好 那我們繼續討論別的問題
