評論
打印
we have about half an hour or so
我們大概還有半個小時下課
I could go through...
我可以繼續(xù)講各縣選情
I have all the other states
我有所有州的地圖
if anyone wants to see any particular states we can
如果你們很想看哪個州的情況 我可以給你們講
but I just like to open it up to questions or comments that any of you might have
但我想留時間給你們自由討論 或者做一些補充評論
yes
請?zhí)釂?/div>
ok the question has to do with the big shift among minority voters and youth voters towards Obama
他的問題是關(guān)于 少數(shù)人種選民和年輕選民傾向奧巴馬的問題
and asking for historical comparison to see how sustainable that would be
他問與歷史上的選舉來看 這種變化是不是持續(xù)發(fā)生的
certainly for the youth vote, there was a big shift in the Democratic direction in the late 1960s and the early 1970s
毋庸置疑 年輕選民開始大量轉(zhuǎn)向支持民主黨 是在20世紀60年代末70年代初開始的
the McGovern campaign depended very heavily on the youth voter
當時麥戈文陣營就非常依賴年輕選民的選票
of course that was a campaign that netted one state
而且最后依靠他們的選票僅獲得了一個州
Massachusetts and the District of Columbia
就是馬薩諸塞州 還有哥倫比亞特區(qū)
when we did see as we brought up before in the 1980s the youth vote really shifting in the Republican direction
我們從之前的課中了解到 80年代年輕選民又開始向民主黨靠攏
quite substantially in the 1980s
這段時間出現(xiàn)了明顯變化
so that would suggest it's going to seesaw
可見這種變化是搖擺不定的
now there's a lot of debate on whether or not people become more conservative as they age
現(xiàn)在很多人在討論是不是人會隨著年齡的增長而變得保守
that's an old adage
人們過去總是這么認為
the evidence is a bit uncertain though
但并沒有明確的證據(jù)證明這個觀點
it's not certainly a uniform predictable pattern
因為人們的觀念與年齡的關(guān)系不是絕對的
it often seems to happen
通常情況下他們會變保守
but sometimes the elderly can switch in...towards more liberal voting
但也有的時候老人會傾向于支持更自由的一邊
if they think that for example social security is impaired
例如如果他們認為社會安全體系受到了損害
that has happened in some recent elections
這種情況在近幾次大選出現(xiàn)過
