評論
打印
yes
請提問
one of those new parties that sprang up in the 1800s was the Republican Party
19世紀出現的新政黨之一就是共和黨
which was successful
它的發展很成功
the rest didn't last
其余政黨都沒有存活下來
remember the Republicans split in 1912 with Teddy Roosevelt forming his Progressive Party
共和黨在1912年曾經分裂 當時西奧多盧瑟福成立了他的進步黨
but got back together again
但后來共和黨又重新合并
our political system with the winner take all
我們勝者獲全票的政治體制
especially in the electoral college
尤其是在選舉人團制度上的勝者全勝
really makes it hard for 3rd parties
使得第三政黨很難立足
the only thing that could happen is a real sort of redivision
唯一有可能的是出現真正意義上的政黨重組
what if the Democrats were to go from victory to victory
想一想 如果民主黨在大選中一而再再而三地獲勝
and the left wing of the Democratic Party got much stronger
民主黨的左翼會日趨強壯
I could see the conservative Democrats
這時保守派民主黨人
the blue dog Democrats separating
如藍狗民主黨就會分裂出來
joining with a faction of the Republican Party
可能與共和黨的某個派系結合
and perhaps making a new party
也許由此組建出一個新政黨
but then you have a split of sort of the far right
但這樣的分裂之后會出現極右
a center far left
和極左之間的矛盾
and that's not gonna be stable though
他們不可能長期地穩定共存
it's gonna go back to a two-party system somehow
最終還是會回歸到兩黨的體系上來
so I think you could have a 3rd party reorientation
所以我想有可能出現3黨共存的局面
but I don't see 3 parties being naturally competitive
但從本質上講這種局面不會長久
just because of the way our Constitution is devised
雖然憲法規定可以成立新的政黨
so now I'm wary about looking into an crystal ball in making any predictions
你讓我看著"水晶球"來做預言時 我會變得很謹慎
I certainly know a lot of my predictions have been wildly wrong as I look back
因為我知道我有過很多預測最后都是大錯特錯的
my family would testify to that
我的家人可以證明這一點
