評論
打印
Can Donald Trump accept a defeat in Afghanistan?
唐納德·特朗普能否接受美國在阿富汗戰場失敗的結局？
THE TALIBAN AND ISIS KILLED AT LEAST 140 people in January in a wave of attacks inside Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital.
1月份，阿富汗首都喀布爾發生一波襲擊事件，塔利班和伊斯蘭國殺死了140多人。
It’s a reminder that this 16-year war, the longest in U.S. history, rages on.
這件事提醒了大家，這次長達16年的戰爭——美國歷史上持續時間最長的戰爭……已經打響。
At least 30,000 Afghan civilians and more than 2,200 U.S. soldiers have died.
3萬多名阿富汗平民和2,200多名美國士兵死亡。
As attacks mount, it’s time to take a longer look at the U.S. goals in Afghanistan.
隨著襲擊加劇，現在是時候重新審視美國在阿富汗的投入了。
President Trump has tried to show positive results.
特朗普總統試圖讓大家看到積極的結果。
He has deferred to his generals on how best to achieve strategic goals and put thousands of additional troops on the ground.
就如何最好地實現戰略目標以及在地面上增調數千名美軍兩個問題，他聽從了將軍們的意見。
Afghanistan has a reasonably strong government in Kabul under the leadership of President Ashraf Ghani.
在阿什拉夫·加尼總統的領導下，阿富汗在喀布爾有著相當強大的政府。
It hasn’t helped.
但并沒有什么用。
The Trump Administration has at the same time shifted support away from Pakistan in favor of closer relations with India.
因為特朗普政府在此時不再支持巴基斯坦，而已經轉而和印度交好了。
U.S. aid to Pakistan has been suspended, giving its military and security services fewer reasons to accept sacrifice and risks to help U.S.-led troops in Afghanistan.
美國對巴基斯坦的援助已經中止，巴基斯坦軍隊及安全部門便沒了援助阿富汗境內的美國領導的軍隊而冒犧牲和風險的理由。
Pakistan may even have provoked recent attacks;
最近的襲擊甚至也有可能是巴基斯坦發動的;
an Afghan diplomat claimed that Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI,
某阿富汗外交官聲稱，巴基斯坦情報機構ISI，
had trained one of the Taliban militants who killed 40 people in a hotel attack on Jan.20.
曾經訓練過一名塔利班武裝分子，1月20日酒店襲擊事件中死去的40人就是這些塔利班武裝分子殺的。
Everyone in the region knows that the U.S. cannot stay forever.
中東地區所有人都知道美國不可能永遠留在中東。
There are now about 14,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, compared with 100,000 in 2011.
目前阿富汗的軍隊人數約為1.4萬人，而2011年則為10萬人。
At some point, the last Americans will go home, just as the Soviets marched out in 1989,
將來某一天，滯留在中東的最后一批美國人也會回家，正如1989年那群蘇聯人一樣，
and Afghanistan will again be an arena in which Pakistan, India and Iran jostle for position.
那時，阿富汗將再次成為巴基斯坦，印度和伊朗爭奪陣地的舞臺。
George W. Bush’s rationale for starting the war in 2001 was clear: the Taliban,
布什總統在2001年開戰的理由很明確：塔利班，
then in charge in Kabul, refused to surrender Osama bin Laden, who had just ordered the murder of thousands of Americans on U.S. soil.
那時喀布爾還在他們手里，所以他們拒絕交出曾命令在美國土地上殺害數千名美國人的本·拉登。
Today’s question for Trump is equally clear: How can this war be won? Presidents Bush and Obama were never able to answer that question.
今天特朗普面臨的問題依舊明顯：美國如何贏得這場戰爭？布什總統、奧巴馬總統都沒能回答這個問題。
A second question for Trump: What does “America first” mean for U.S. policy in Afghanistan?
特朗普面臨的第二個問題是：“美國第一”對美國在阿富汗的政策意味著什么？
Do American taxpayers care about what happens there?
美國的納稅人是否關心阿富汗發生的事情？
Both parties in Congress have supported efforts to help the Afghan government control enough territory
國會雙方都支持幫助阿富汗政府控制足夠領土的努力
to ensure that terrorists find no new safe haven from which to attack Western targets.
確保恐怖分子找不到新的安全庇護所來攻擊西方國家。
But that government still lacks the resources and the country still lacks the infrastructure needed to achieve that goal.
問題是，特朗普政府還是沒有足夠的資源，美國也沒有實現該目標所需的基礎設施。
The result is a violent, expensive stalemate.
結局恐怕還是一場暴力而昂貴的僵局。
If Trump stops sending troops and money, the Afghan government will collapse.
如果特朗普不再提供軍隊和資金上的援助，阿富汗政府恐將崩潰。
If the troops and dollars continue to flow, Washington will be paying to extend the stalemate.
如果部隊和美元繼續往阿富汗流動，美國政府就要為延長僵局付出代價。
Can Donald Trump accept a defeat, even one he can blame on his predecessors?
唐納德·特朗普能接受接受失敗嗎，即便他能將這一切都推到前任總統們身上？
And how long will it take him to decide?
他又需要多長時間才能做決定呢？
