yes
請提問
ok a great question
很好的問題
how much if this is a momentary
這些轉變有多少是短暫的
how much if it is a real shift
有多少是實質上的轉變?
well it's not reflected necessarily in senatorial races
我想這些轉變在參議員選舉上看不出來
I'll show you some maps of congressional races
但在眾議員選舉的情況上有所表現
the patterns don't fit perfectly
不過那個變化和大選也不是完全吻合
and a lot of these wealthier suburban counties
很多富裕郊縣的選民
I suspect that the vice presidential candidate in the Republican side cost a lot of vote among the more affluent educated
都因為共和黨的副總統候選人放棄了對共和黨的支持
we see this real drop-off in affluent educated voters for the Republicans
我們看到共和黨高學歷高收入的支持者大幅減少
so there are speculation that some of that may be Sarah Palin effect but of course that's debated
所以有人推測這是由于他們對薩拉佩林的不滿 當然這種說法存在爭議
she probably did increase voters in poor rural areas got out votes for the Republican side
佩林可能的確幫共和黨贏得了更多農村和貧困地區的選票
but those are states that probably would have gone to Republican anyway
但這些州很可能本來就是泛紅州(所以沒什么用)
so that's again something for statisticians to talk about
這是統計學家要研究的問題了
the question has to do with all cultural polarization
他的問題和文化分歧有關
back to the 1960s
在20世紀60年代
it's a hippie redneck divide
出現了嬉皮士和守舊黨兩派
David Brooks a moderately conservative columnist a few years ago wrote a book about bobos bohemian bourgeoisie
大衛布魯克 一個溫和派的保守專欄作家 在幾年前寫過一本關于布波族的書
where he says the hippie value is got brought into the broadly mobile educated middle and upper classes
書中提到當嬉皮文化被受過高等教育且到處傳播價值觀的中上層階級所接受
that's sort of in a way ended that division
這種分歧就漸漸消失了
but another people look at this map and say why is that you see here in this red zone
但也有人在看到這幅地圖后說 為什么圖中泛紅的區域
if not this areas of mostly white population
都是以白人為主
relatively low levels of income, relatively low levels of education
他們大多收入較為微薄 受教育程度也低地區
not just voting Republican, but shifting in the Republican direction, unlike the rest of the country
他們不只支持共和黨 還增加了對共和黨的支持率 與其他大部分地方都不同
but it's not a national phenomenon
可見這不是一個全國性的轉變
you can find many
還有其他地區
look at the rural areas in Montana
如蒙大拿州的農村地區
there you have this shift
也有縣向共和黨靠攏
so it's a regionally specific movement
這是一種地區性的轉移
and that's what we do have here
的確是這樣的