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Now, does anyone not know what cohort analysis is, or should I go over it?
有沒有人不知道“同期群分析”的？我要講一下嗎？
Yeah. Okay. So I'll go over it. Okay.
好的。講一下這兩個詞
So CLV is some people call it LTV.
“客戶生命周期價值”
It is called customer lifetime,
也叫“客戶終身價值”
which is, basically the amount of the net revenue
是指一個客戶
that a customer brings in the door for you over a certain amount of period.
在一定時期內給你創造的凈利潤
So, a 12 month CLV is how much net revenue does a customer give you over 12 months.
因此12個月的“客戶生命周期價值”就是一個客戶12個月創造的凈利潤
Sometimes people look at three months, six months, and so on and so forth.
有的企業用季度或半年的時間來衡量，根據企業的情況，時間可以自主選擇
So, when I say cohort, basically, what you're looking at is, this is time.
“同期群分析”，畫個圖解釋一下，這里表示的是時間
So, let's just call this, yeah, time.
這里是時間
So, and this is percent of users coming back to you.
這是回頭客的占比
So at time zero, right, a period zero, we're at a hundred. I'm using 100%.
這里是時間的起點，頂上是100%。100%
So, cohort is another name also for like customer segments and stuff like that.
同期群也有點類似于客戶分類
So you can, like, you might look at the female versus male cohort.
例如，女用戶vs男用戶
People in Atlanta Georgia verses people in Sacramento California.
佐治亞州亞特蘭大用戶vs加利福尼亞州薩克拉門托用戶
But, the most common one is by month.
但是，一般都是用月表示時間的
So, cohort equals month and lets just say for this exercise,
因此，同期群是用月來衡量的
we are looking at like March of, I don't know, 2012.
假設現在是2012年的3月
So, March 2012, 100% of people, you'll have like, that means n equals 100 people.
2012年3月，有100%的用戶表示有100個用戶
So, 100% of the people, obviously, are using your product because, that's the definition.
我們現在定義起初有100個用戶用你的產品
Now, one month later, you might have, this scale is not right,
一個月以后，用戶數量落到這個點
but 50% might come back and so, you come here.
只有50%的回頭客了
Now, in the second month, how many people that came in March, come back two months later?
第二個月，兩個月以后有多少回頭客呢？
And that might be down here.
可能只有這么多了
And, so, over time, you'll have a curve that looks like this.
一段時間后，曲線值趨于平穩
There's always some initial drop off, you know.
一開始數值都會大幅下滑
The reasons why people don't stay after their first use is,
原因可能是，用戶覺得這錢花的冤枉
it wasn't worth it, had a bad experience, stuff like that.
用戶體驗不好等等
And then, over time what you want is,
一段時間之后
you want this to flatten out over time,
曲線值基本平穩
so that your turn basically goes to 0% that means you attrition out less, and less users over time.
不再波動，說明客戶流失的少了
And these over here, kind of become your core customers,
這部分客戶群體，就成了核心客戶
these are the ones that are like sort of staying with you for a long time.
他們對你的產品會有很高的忠誠度
