評論
打印
Take a look at that district in North Carolina
以北卡羅來納州的選區為例
Why is that there
是什么造成了這種選區劃分呢?
That's there to have a safe African-American majority district linking together African-American areas of a number of different cities
這是為了把大部分人口為非洲裔的城市連接起來劃入同一個選區
This is something that Democrats and Republicans would often agree upon
這是民主黨人和共和黨人都會同意的事情
Because you can both get safe seats that way
因為這種方法能保證雙方都獲得席位
If you fix these districts in this way
即把支持某一方的區域都劃入同一選區
Utah, one of the most republican voting states
猶他州作為共和黨支持率最高的州
Has one of its congressional representative that is the Democrat
也有一名國會議員是民主黨人
Interesting district includes Salt Lake City and the whole bunch of rural Utah when they redistrict him
有趣的是該選區起初只包括鹽湖城后來改劃時將猶他的農村地區也包括進來
At first he just had Salt Lake City
由于該候選人只是在鹽湖城有較高支持率
Hey give him all these rural areas
人們認為，在該區加入來自農村的選民
A lot of people thought he would lose but he manage to pull through
會導致他競選失敗，但他最終還是成功當選為眾議員
Just know Los Angeles with it's Democratic representatives, suburban southern California different story
而洛杉磯的民主黨眾議員、南加州郊區的眾議員則有著不同的競選故事
You can see Minneapolis in St.Paul
可以看到，圣保羅的明尼阿波利斯市
A Democratic.
有一名民主黨眾議員
And you can see this suburban republican ring
包圍它的是城郊區域的共和黨議員
And then the Democratic outliners
該區域外圍又是得勢的民主黨人
So that's pretty interesting patterns there
這種模式看起來很有趣
But through most of the country very mixed
但縱觀全國，情況是很雜亂的
Let me talk a little bit about this northern belt. Which I found very interesting
我想稍微講講北部一帶的州，這里的情況很有趣
Places like Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota that went very heavily for the republicans
蒙大拿州，北達科他州，南達科他州都是極度支持共和黨的地方
Although actually there's one poll now that puts North Dakota is a draw right now
近來有民意調查顯示兩黨在北達科他支持者勢均力敵
Barak Obama polled out a few weeks ago
但幾周前對奧巴馬的民意調查卻顯示
and no way win the North Dakota
他在該州毫無勝算
Most recent poll shows a neck-and-neck
僅過幾周，選情又變為兩黨不分上下
Which is a kind of interesting. But generally republicans win at the national level
情況的確是搖擺不定，很有看頭，雖然04年的共和黨在全國范圍大體獲勝
but yet we got governors here we've got congress people, we got states people
但從州長，眾議員的情況來看又有所不同
If we go back historically
如果我們追溯歷史
we find that these northern, sort of north-central states were some of the most left-leaning states
我們會發現北部和中北部地區都是一些左傾的州
Montana in 1912
來看蒙大拿州1912年的選情
This is a fascinating election
那年大選發生了很多故事
You had Taft as the incumbent Handpick successor to Teddy Roosevelt
時任國防部長塔夫脫是羅斯福欽點的衣缽傳人
Teddy Roosevelt did not like the conservative direction Taft was taking
但羅斯福不喜歡塔夫脫的保守作風
He challenged him and for the republican nomination and lost
以致最終和塔夫脫決裂，自行宣布角逐共和黨候選人，但失敗
And then form his own party, the progressive party or Bull Moose Party .
其后他另起爐灶，成立進步黨，又稱公鹿黨
Eugene Debs running as a socialist
尤金德布斯以社會主義者的名義競選
And Woodrow Wilson as a democrat. By the day standards, Taft very definitely conservative
伍德羅·威爾遜，則是民主黨候選人。根據當時人們的判斷標準，除了塔夫脫是個不折不扣的保守分子
All of the others are somewhat liberal and to some extend in well steps quite far to the left
其他候選人都是自由主義者且有不同程度的左傾傾向
Wilson is liberal in many regards. He was an arch-segregationist and so he had his conservative aspects
威爾遜在很多方面表現出自由主義。但同時他又是一個重要的隔離主義者，由此可以瞥見他保守的一面
Roosevelt, liberal in some areas but quite militaristic and imperialistic. So conservative in someways
羅斯福雖在某些方面觀念開放，卻是個有著軍國主義和帝國主義色彩的人物，在某些方面，他還是較為保守
But you can see the republican candidate
但你能看到，塔夫脫作為共和黨候選人
wining less than a quarter of the vote in Montana
在蒙大拿州只贏得了不到 1/4的選票
And so we can sort of see some of these old patterns. they seem to disappear in one level if you look at presidential election
這說明總統大選中一些舊的規律在過去的總統大選中也許并沒有體現
when you look at the state elections and congressional elections, you can see maybe some continuation of those patterns
但在一些州級選舉或國會級選舉中你也許能看到那些規律的延續
