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Next topic then I'd like to go into is examining again at the national level
我們的下一個要研究的是從全國的范圍來觀察大選
And here we have the electoral college. We have how many electors come out of each state
我們要提到選舉人團這個概念。每個州的選舉人數是多少?
And we have the 2004 red blue map or on this case sort of wondrous brownish versus blue map. This is a Wikipedia map. Wikipedia has a lot of pretty good maps on this
我們來看看這幅04年的紅藍地圖，看起來更像一幅棕藍色的地圖這是維基百科上的地圖，維基百科上有很多關于選舉的好地圖
So here's the same map we've been looking at all along
回到這幅我們一直在分析的圖
One interesting thing to look at is we've looked at it geographically. Let's look at it historically how long has this pattern been around
有意思的是剛才我們一直在分析其地理特征，讓我們從歷史的角度分析這樣的紅藍布局形成多久了呢
Is it very deep historically? No, not at all, it really
是否很久以前就已出現這種分布?并不是,
the earlier the most recent election before 2004. The 2000 election was quite similar
最接近04年的總統大選也就是2000年的大選，有相似的布局
We go earlier than that we don't see the same pattern at all
但再往前追溯，我們就看不到相似的紅藍分布了
And in fact a lot of the patterns we see today that seem so stark didn't exist 20 years ago
事實上現在我們看到的分布看起來雖然明顯，但形成才不到20年
The 1988 election, George Bush Senior, Michael Dukakis religious differences play almost no role in that election, maybe a few percent
在77年老布什和杜卡基斯的角逐中，宗教差異幾乎完全不重要，可能只影響幾個百分點，
and it really started in the 90s the difference between the more religious and more secular voters and areas and seems to be intensified
但從90年代開始，信教區的選民和非信教區的選民差異開始深化
But we're not talking about a very deep pattern
我們所說的紅藍分布并不是一定的或絕對的
And I'll just show you a few historical maps, so we will be spending a lot of time
我會用幾幅歷史上大選的地圖作對比，我們在這上面花些時間
You can switch back and forth between these and we can see some changes, so we can see Iowa going from Democratic to Republican, same with New Mexico
在這兩年的地圖間來回切換，我們會發現一些變化，愛荷華從支持民主黨轉向了共和黨，新墨西哥也是如此
These are states right on the edge
這都是些搖擺不定的州
We can see New Hampshire doing the opposite
新罕布什爾州則轉向相反
You can also as you flip back and through this, look at the electoral votes, look at Florida and Texas
通過兩幅圖前后對比，你會發現一些州選舉人票數量有變，如佛羅里達州和德州
Look at Michigan and see Pennsylvania, 17,18 or they lost one, Pennsylvania 21,23 they lost two
密歇根州和賓州，密歇根州從18票變為17票，比上屆少了一個選舉人票，賓州則從23票變為21票，少了2票
So the electoral college changes as population changes
各州選舉團人數隨著人口變化而變化
And it has been the more republican voting areas had been gaining electoral seats
一些共和黨支持州的選舉人票數在增多
And a lot of these Democratic states in the northeast losing them
一些東北部支持民主黨的州票數在減少
That's of course Republican partisans are very happy about and Democratic partisans are worried about
共和黨人無疑會對此感到高興，民主黨人則為此憂心忡忡
