評(píng)論
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So we can see this is pretty much the same map, New Mexico sort of a bit out of the pattern but as I said before New Mexico very much a swing state
這兩幅圖看起來(lái)極為相似，除了新墨西哥看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)另類，但我說(shuō)過(guò)了新墨西哥是個(gè)搖擺州
And what if we go back to Clinton second election against Dole
我們來(lái)看看克林頓的第二次大選，他的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手是多爾
We don't' see the same pattern here at all, do we?
紅藍(lán)分布完全不一樣，對(duì)嗎?
We see a real swath in the middle of the country from Louisiana and Arkansas, including Tennessee, Kentucky
我們?cè)谥胁靠吹揭粋€(gè)狹長(zhǎng)區(qū)域，從路易斯安那至阿肯色，再到田納西和肯塔基
Voting for the Democratic camp and of course the Democratic candidate for the presidency and the vice-presidency were both southerners
他們都選了民主黨陣營(yíng)，一方面是因?yàn)槊裰鼽h的總統(tǒng)和副總統(tǒng)候選人，都是南方人
And that is something that a lot of Democratic party strategist will say
對(duì)此很多民主黨戰(zhàn)略家都認(rèn)為
It is important, maybe even necessary to win in how to get southerner who has a sort of reputation as a somewhat moderate individual
贏得南方有聲望的溫和派人士的支持是非常重要甚至必要的
And it certainly work to build Clinton in advantage
克林頓在這方面顯然做得很出色
So you can see Clinton losing the southeast but winning in a lot of sort of south central area
所以克林頓雖在東南部落敗但卻在一些中南部的州獲勝
Winning the very important state, Florida
贏得了非常關(guān)鍵的佛羅里達(dá)州的選票
You can see Indiana being a bit of exception in the mid west（east), and you can see a larger Pacific Democratic voting area, including Arizona state that doesn't go Democratic very often
中東部只有印第安納州另類地支持共和黨，至于太平洋沿岸則都是民主黨的天下，包括亞利桑那州，它支持民主黨的情況并不常見
Go back a little bit more, back 20 years to 1988 George Bush Senior against Michael Dukakis
再往回看，回到20年前，1988年老布什和杜卡基斯的那場(chǎng)大選
And what do we find here? we find a lot of states we now think of solidly blue solidly Democratic voting
我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了什么？我們發(fā)現(xiàn)很多現(xiàn)在泛藍(lán)的十分堅(jiān)定的民主黨支持州
Like Vermont or Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, California then voting Republican. So there has been a real change
如佛蒙特，康涅狄格，新澤西，馬里蘭以及加州當(dāng)時(shí)都把支持共和黨，可見紅藍(lán)分布發(fā)生了很大的變換
We'll see this later on. we'll look at California county maps
稍后我們會(huì)細(xì)講。我們分析加州的縣級(jí)地圖
By 1988 the bay area was mostly voting the Democrats, to be sure
88年時(shí)舊金山灣周圍的縣大多支持民主黨，這是可以肯定的
But we go back another 10 year earlier, We'll find places like Glenn county San Mateo county voting for the Republican candidate
但再往前追溯10年，我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)格倫縣，圣馬特奧縣，都支持共和黨候選人
And actually at the same time, we'll find counties like Kern county voting for the Democrat，It's been a reversal in California, really interesting one.
同時(shí)你還會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)克恩縣當(dāng)時(shí)支持的是民主黨，而今加州的情況完全相反，很有意思
That's something we can talk about, how much is that have to do with these areas changing their population? How much have to do with the political parities changing their orientations
這個(gè)問題值得我們思考，這與這些地區(qū)的人口變化有何關(guān)系？與政黨的執(zhí)政方針的變化有何關(guān)系？
