評論
打印
Do you think we're currently in a bubble?
你認為目前經濟處于泡沫期嗎？
Do I think we're currently in a bubble?
我認為目前經濟處于泡沫期嗎？
Okay, so I'll give you two answers to this question.
對于這個問題，我給你兩個答案
One, ask me questions that are useful to this audience,
一個是，針對在場觀眾有用的答案
cuz these people are here to learn how to start startups and I have in my head, like,
因為來這的人是要學習如何創業，對于是否處于泡沫期這個問題，
more data about that than anybody else.
我比其他人研究得都要深
And you're asking me the kind of questions a reporter does cuz
還有一套針對
they can't think of anything interesting to ask.
那些“吃飽了撐著的”記者的答案
But I will answer your question.
我來回答你的問題
There is a difference between prices merely being high and a bubble.
價格高和泡沫是有區別的
A bubble is a very specific form of prices being high,
泡沫是價高的一種特例
where people knowingly pay high prices for something in the hope
此時，人們明知價格過高
that they will be able to unload it later on some greater fool.
卻還希望以更高的價格轉手
Right? And that's what happened in the late 90s.
這就是90年代晚期出現的情況
Like, VCs knowingly invested in bullshit startups,
例如，當時風險投資人明知道所投資的創業公司很垃圾
thinking that they would be able to take those things public,
他們想著，只要這些垃圾公司上市
and unload them onto the retail investors before everything blew up.
他們只要能在事情敗露之前，把股份脫手給散戶就行了
And I was there, I was there for that, at the epicenter of it all.
我當時目睹了這一切
And that is not what's happening today.
當時的情況和現在不同
Prices are high, valuations are high.
價格高，估值高
But valuations being high does not mean a bubble.
估值高并不意味著泡沫
Every, every commodity has prices that go up and down in some sort of sine wave.
每樣商品的價格都會不同程度地正弦式起起伏伏
Definitely, prices are high.
目前價格是高
And so we tell people, if you raise money,
我要警告大家，如果你這次籌到資金
don't think the next time you raise money it's gonna be so easy.
不要以為你下次還能輕松籌到資金
Who knows, maybe between now and then
誰能說得準呢，或許今后
the Chinese economy will have exploded and there's another giant disastrous recession.
中國經濟先爆發式增長，然后進入大蕭條呢
Who knows, assume the worst, but bubble, no.
誰說得準呢，要考慮到最差情況，但是目前絕不是泡沫期
