The stocks that are worthy to buy
“Whether the market goes up or down from here, these blue chips are great investments.”
“無論股票市場是上漲還是下跌,這些藍(lán)籌股都是極好的投資選擇。”
Despite the market’s recent resuscitation, many stocks are still trading at fire-sale prices no surprise given the immense decline that preceded the advance. But which stocks should you buy?
盡管股票市場最近有復(fù)蘇的趨勢,很多股票仍然在以超低價格被交易,這并不會讓人感到意外,因為上漲之后就會出現(xiàn)巨幅下跌。那么,有哪些股票值得你去買進(jìn)呢?
If you‘re looking for ideas, Momingstar Stocklnvestor ($119 annually) is a great resource. According to the authoritative Hulbert Financial Digest, the newsletter‘s stock picks returned an annualized 2.6% from the end of 1999 through last February, a period in which the broad-based Dow-Jones Wilshire 5000 stock index lost an annualized 5.0%. What’s more, tbe Momingstar letter is less risky than the index and tends to do little trading; on average, the letter holds stocks for about three years.
如果你想得到這方面的建議,晨星股票投資(每年會員費119美 元)是個很好的資源提供者。根據(jù)權(quán)威的胡伯特財經(jīng)分析,從1999 年末到今年的2月份,通訊類股票每年升值2.6%左右,與之對應(yīng)的是具有廣泛代表性的道瓊斯威爾希爾5000指數(shù)平均每年下跌5.0%。值得注意的是,晨星的風(fēng)險低于(道瓊斯)指數(shù)并且(持有股票后)往往很少交易:它所持有的股票平均時限是3年左右。
Momingstar’s 100-plus stock analysts estimate “intrinsic value” for every company they cover. They compare intrinsic value to a company’s share price to arrive at a star rating. Larson then draws up two lists——a “tortoise” portfolio and a “hare” portfolio~consisting of about 25 highly rated stocks each.
晨星的100多個股票分析師們會為他們知曉的每一家公司的內(nèi) 在價值作個評估。他們比較公司的內(nèi)在價值和公司在達(dá)到一個新髙度時候的市值。拉森隨之列出了兩份單子:一隊是“烏龜”組合,一隊是“野兔”組合,每隊都分別包含了25支髙價位的股票。
The stocks below are chosen from Stocklnvestor’s tortoise, or lower-risk, portfolio.
以下這些股票都是從股票投資者的“烏龜”或者“野兔”(較低風(fēng)險)中選出來的。
Larson’s favorite is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). At $ 3,114,90 a share on May 4,the stock has shed more than one-third of its value in the past year. But Larson believes that Berkshire’s collection of more than 70 businesses, dominated by insurance, is dirt-cheap.Says Larson, “For a long time, people have been pricing Berkshire as though Buffett were no longer around. But he’s still alive and kicking and adding value. And the balance sheet is still one of the strongest around, even though the company no longer carries a triple—A debt rating.”
拉森最青睞沃倫巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撤韋(BRK.B)。在5月4日每股3114.90美元的行情出來后,這支股票在過去的一年巳經(jīng)蒸發(fā)掉了市值的1/3。但是拉森相信擁有70多家子公司,以及在保險產(chǎn)業(yè)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的伯克希爾公司已經(jīng)非常便宜了。拉森說: “很長一段時間,人們追捧出的伯克希爾公聞(的高股價)好像預(yù)示著巴菲特堅持不下去了。但是他仍然活躍著并且在繼續(xù)擊敗競爭對手和追加投資。即使伯克希爾公荀已經(jīng)不再參加3A級信用評定,它依然擁有一張最強勁的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。”
The world’s largest and most diverse health-care company, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), is another favorite. Larson says that the company is largely insulated from economic downturns. “People need to take their medicines regardless of what the economy is doing,he says. J&J is well-managed, has little debt and generates a staggering 1 billion dollars in free cash flow per month (free cash flow is the money left after a company makes the capital expenditures needed to maintain the business). The stock closed at $ 53.76 on May 4.
世界上最大、產(chǎn)品最多樣化的健康護(hù)理公司——強生公司(j&j ),是另一家獲得青睞的公司。拉森說這家公司已經(jīng)大到可以和經(jīng)濟下滑絕緣,他說:“不管經(jīng)濟狀況如何,人們都需要關(guān)心他們自己的健康。”強生公司經(jīng)營有方,債務(wù)很少,并且每個月能賺進(jìn)驚人的10億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流。這支股票5月4日的收盤價是53.76美元。
Defense giant General Dynamics (GD) is another company that’s built to withstand recessions. It builds ships and armored vehicles, as well as information-technology systems for the militaiy. ‘The government has a vested interest in maintaining the health of this company," Larson says. “It came through the Defense Department budget cuts relatively unscathed.” The company boasts a rock-solid balance sheet. The stock closed at $ 54.00.
軍工巨頭通用動力(GD)是另外一家可以承受住(經(jīng)濟)衰退的公司。這家公司在建造艦船和裝甲車方面就和構(gòu)造軍認(rèn)信息科技系統(tǒng)一樣出色。拉森說:“政府通過保持這家公司的良好經(jīng)營從而獲取既得利益。這種利益來自于國防部并沒有削減多少的預(yù)算。”這家公司擁有堅若磐石的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。此股的收盤價為54美元(5月4日)。
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), the world’s largest retailer, has increased its market share during the economic slump. Its sales of consumer staples at discount prices have been increasing as other retailers have been going out of business. The company’s managers are focusing on cutting costs and satisfying customers. Wal-Mart, one of only two stocks in the Dow industrials to climb last year, closed at $50.84.
沃爾瑪零售(WMT)—世界上最大的零售商,在經(jīng)濟不景氣的環(huán)境下依然在開發(fā)市場。當(dāng)對手們都在退出打折售賣主食這塊領(lǐng)域的時候,沃爾瑪反而在擴充。公司的經(jīng)營者們專注于削減開支以及滿足顧客的需求。沃爾瑪,作為去年僅有的兩家道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)統(tǒng)計中上漲的股票,收盤價達(dá)到了50.84美元(5月4日)。
As employee benefits grow ever more complex, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) benefits. It provides such services as payroll processing and benefits administration. Its large scale and respected brand, and the high cost of switching to another vendor, give it a big competitive advantage. The share price: $ 34.86.
當(dāng)員工的收益增長越來越多樣化的時候,自動數(shù)據(jù)處理公司(ADP)也在得益。它提供的服務(wù)包括薪水支付以及收益管理。它的巨大規(guī)模、良好口碑、以及提供給供應(yīng)商時的高昂價格,給予了它巨大的競爭優(yōu)勢。收盤價報是34.68美元(5月4日)。
When competitors were spending enormous sums to build up oil-and-gas reserves during last year's bubble in oil prices, ExxonMobil (XOM) stayed focused on increasing profit margins. Because of that, Exxon can continue to buy back shares, raise its dividend and increase capital spending (at a price of $68.20, the stock yields 2.5%).
在去年油價出現(xiàn)泡沫,競爭對手們花費巨額金錢以建立石油天然氣儲備的時候,埃克森美孚(XOM)卻在關(guān)注利潤的增長率。正因為如此,埃克森美孚才能繼續(xù)回購股票、提升紅利以及增加資本開支(當(dāng)股價在68.2美元的時候,它已經(jīng)有了2.5%的收益)。