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The hardest part about coming up with great ideas is that
而提到創(chuàng)意，有一個坎就是
the best ideas often look terrible at the beginning.
任何好創(chuàng)意，在初期并不會嶄露頭角
The 13th search engine and without all the features of web portal.
第13版搜索引擎沒有門戶的概念
Most people thought that was pointless, search was done,
很多人并不看好
and anyway, it didn't matter that much,
認(rèn)為沒什么必要
Portal's where the value is at.
畢竟門戶才是最重要的
The tenth social network, and limited only to college students with no money?
又比如第10版社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)，只對大學(xué)生開放，而且免費(fèi)
Also terrible.
所以市場前景并不可觀
MySpace had won, and who wants college students as customers,
MySpace成功了，誰曾想過把大學(xué)生當(dāng)作客戶？
or a way to stay on strangers' couches?
又比方說Airbnb“寄宿在陌生人家里”的理念
That just sounds terrible all around.
乍一聽好像都很荒謬
These all sounded really bad, but they turned out to be good.
開始時，這些創(chuàng)意都不被看好，但結(jié)果卻出乎意料地好
If they had sounded really good,
如果開始時創(chuàng)意就很出色
there would have been too many people working on them.
那么會有更多人致力于開發(fā)這個創(chuàng)意
As Peter Tills discussed in the fifth class,
彼得·提爾斯在第五次課中會說
you want an idea that turns into a monopoly,
每個人都想讓自己的創(chuàng)意發(fā)展成行業(yè)的壟斷企業(yè)
but you can't get a monopoly in a big market right away.
但很明顯，這不可能一蹴而就
Too much competition for that.
在企業(yè)發(fā)展過程中，會有激烈競爭
You have to find a small market in which you can get a monopoly, and then quickly expand.
那么首先，大家要找到一個自身有足夠競爭力但相對小的市場，之后再快速擴(kuò)張
This is why some great startup ideas look really bad at the beginning.
這也是為什么很多創(chuàng)意在初期并不被看好的原因
It's good if you can say something like,
如果今天只有一小部分顧客使用我的產(chǎn)品
today only the small subset of users are going to use my product.
這就足夠好了
But I'm gonna get all of them.
因為這一小部分顧客，已經(jīng)是我的客戶群
And in the future, almost everyone will use my product.
在此之后，可能就有更多的人使用我的產(chǎn)品
Here's the thing that's gonna come up a lot,
同時還有一點(diǎn)
you need conviction in your own beliefs,
大家必須要堅定自己的信念
and the willingness to ignore others nay saying.
在別人提出反對意見時，要敢于堅持己見
The hard part is that this is a very fine line.
這一點(diǎn)很難，因為尺度很難把握
There's right on one side of it, and crazy on the other.
可能這樣就做對了，而稍微差一點(diǎn)就會全盤皆輸
But keep in mind that if you do come up with a great idea,
大家只要記住，對于一個好創(chuàng)意
most people are going to think it's bad.
可能在開始的時候所有人都會持反對意見
You should be happy about that.
出現(xiàn)這種情況大家反而應(yīng)該放心
It means they won't compete with you.
這樣至少沒有人跟你競爭同一塊市場了
This is also a reason why it's not usually dangerous to tell people about your idea.
所以跟別人討論你的創(chuàng)意也沒有關(guān)系
The truly good ideas don't sound like they're worth stealing.
真正好的創(chuàng)意，反而不引人注意
You want an idea about which you can say,
這樣的創(chuàng)意比較好
I know it sounds like a bad idea.
創(chuàng)意聽起來可能并不怎么樣
But hear specifically why it's actually a great one.
但自己一定要想清楚這點(diǎn)子好在哪里
You wanna sound crazy, but you wanna actually be right.
這創(chuàng)意一方面可能不引人注意，但另一方面你又要讓它足夠好
And you want an idea that not many other people are working on.
我們還是希望，越少人跟自己的創(chuàng)意競爭越好
And it's okay if it doesn't sound big at first.
所以如果開始時創(chuàng)意并不起眼，沒有關(guān)系
Common mistake among founders, especially first time founders,
很多創(chuàng)業(yè)者都會犯一個錯誤，尤其是初次創(chuàng)業(yè)的人們
is they think that the first version of their product,
一般都會認(rèn)為自己的第一款產(chǎn)品
the first version of their idea, needs to sound really big.
或者說創(chuàng)意的原型，必須是特別宏大特別出色的
But it doesn't.
實際上，不必如此
It needs to take over a small, specific market and expand from there.
開始時你的創(chuàng)意只需要針對特定市場，再從這個小市場擴(kuò)展
That's how most great companies have started.
很多大公司都是這么發(fā)展起來的
Unpopular but right is what you're going for.
開始并不被大眾廣泛接受
You want something that sounds like a bad idea, but is a good idea.
大家的創(chuàng)意，就算聽起來不起眼，但本質(zhì)上必須有潛力
You also really wanna take the time to think about how the market's going to evolve.
這也是為什么大家一定要潛心研究市場發(fā)展的規(guī)律
You need a market that's going to be big in ten years.
大家選定的目標(biāo)市場必須能在之后十年內(nèi)快速發(fā)展
Most investors are obsessed with the market size today,
很多投資人都著眼于現(xiàn)在的市場規(guī)模
and they don't think at all about how the market is going to evolve.
而不考慮市場的發(fā)展規(guī)律
In fact, I think this is one of the biggest systemic mistakes that investors make.
實際上這是投資人的一大誤區(qū)
They think about the growth of the startup itself,
他們會考慮公司發(fā)展的軌跡
they don't think about the growth of the market.
卻不考慮市場發(fā)展的規(guī)律
I care much more about the growth rate of the market than it's current size.
相較于市場現(xiàn)有規(guī)模，我更關(guān)注的是市場的增長速度
And I also care if there's any reason that it's gonna top out.
同時還要考慮什么因素會促進(jìn)市場發(fā)展
You should think about this.
這些都需要大家投入思考
I'd prefer to invest in a company that's going after a small but rapidly growing market than a big but slow growing one.
相較于規(guī)模大但增長速度慢的市場，我會更傾向于投資現(xiàn)有規(guī)模小但能快速增長的市場
One of the big advantages of these sorts of markets um, these small but rapidly growing markets,
這種小市場一種優(yōu)點(diǎn)就是
is that customers are usually pretty desperate for a solution.
顧客群的消費(fèi)意識強(qiáng)烈，迫切需要產(chǎn)品
And they'll put, put up with an imperfect but rapidly improving product.
就算產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)階段并不完善，但只要在不斷改進(jìn)，消費(fèi)者是可以接受的
