評(píng)論
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That's a systematic approach.
這是一個(gè)系統(tǒng)的方法。
Now the question, is this important?
那么現(xiàn)在問題來了這很重要嗎。
Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,
是的，這對(duì)理解貧窮。
extreme poverty and how to fight it,and how to bring girls in school.
極端貧窮 以及如何與之斗爭(zhēng)很重要以及如何讓女孩子們上學(xué)。
When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.
當(dāng)意識(shí)到這些問題實(shí)際正在改善時(shí) 我們才能理解這些問題本身。
But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale?
但是 會(huì)有人在意處于富裕一端的人嗎?這很重要嗎?
I would say yes, extremely important,for the same reason.
我想說是的 非常非常重要同樣的理由。
If you have a fact-based worldview of today,you might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.
如果你對(duì)當(dāng)今世界的認(rèn)知是基于事實(shí)的,那么你才可能會(huì)有機(jī)會(huì)去預(yù)測(cè)將來會(huì)發(fā)生什么。
We're going back to these two humps in 1975.
我們回過頭來看1975年的這兩個(gè)峰值。
That's when I was born, and I selected the West.
也就是我剛出生的時(shí)候我選擇了西方國(guó)家。
That's the current EU countries and North America.
也就是現(xiàn)在的歐盟和北美國(guó)家。
Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are.
我們來看看其他地區(qū)和西方國(guó)家的比較關(guān)于富裕程度。
These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.
這些是能夠負(fù)擔(dān)得起坐飛機(jī)出國(guó)度假的人。
In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America.
1975年的時(shí)候 只有30%的人是住在歐盟和北美以外的地區(qū)。
But this has changed, okay?
但是情況已經(jīng)變了。
So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.
首先我們來看看當(dāng)今的情況 2014年。
Today it's 50/50.
現(xiàn)在是一半一半。
The Western domination is over, as of today.
西方國(guó)家的統(tǒng)治在當(dāng)今已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在了。
That's nice. So what's going to happen next?
很好那么接下去會(huì)發(fā)生什么呢？
Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?
你看到那個(gè)高峰了嗎？ 你看到它是如何變化的嗎？。
I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.
我做了一個(gè)小試驗(yàn),我查看了國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的網(wǎng)站。
They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.
他們對(duì)今后五年的GDP做了一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)。
So I can use that to go five years into the future,assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.
所以我可以借此來推測(cè)未來5年的變化，假設(shè)各國(guó)的貧富差距保持不變。
I did that, but I went even further.
除此以外我還做了進(jìn)一步的預(yù)測(cè)。
I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.
我用未來5年的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)未來20年做了預(yù)測(cè)同樣的變化速度 就像一個(gè)實(shí)際很可能會(huì)發(fā)生的試驗(yàn)一樣。
Let's move into the future.
讓我們移步未來。
In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.
2020年 57%來自非西方國(guó)家。
In 2025, 63 percent.
2025年 63%。
2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.
2030年68%，到了2035年 西方國(guó)家在富裕消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)中的比例被趕超。
These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.
這些僅僅是針對(duì)未來的GDP所作出的推測(cè)。
Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe.
73%的富裕消費(fèi)者將居住在北美和歐洲以外的地區(qū)。
So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.
所以沒錯(cuò) 我認(rèn)為公司應(yīng)該用“知識(shí)證書”來確保未來能作出基于事實(shí)的決策。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
