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經濟學人:紐特·金里奇的競選——敗局已定

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WHEN Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign foundered last summer, leading to the mass resignation of his staff and reports that his campaign debt exceeded $1m, the problem was not that he seemed to prefer luxury cruises through Greece and Turkey with Mrs Gingrich (speaking, right) to the messy business of a political campaign. The problem, as he was only too happy to explain, was that “much like Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, I’m such an unconventional political figure that you really need to design a unique campaign that fits the way I operate and what I’m trying to do.”

當紐特·金里奇在去年夏天的總統競選活動中敗陣,導致他的競選團隊人員大量辭職,同時被媒體爆出因競選他已負債超過100萬美元時,他的問題并非比起競選活動中的各種繁瑣事務,他更喜歡和他的妻子(圖右說話的女士)一起來個希臘或土耳其豪華游艇巡游。正如他津津樂道的那樣,他的問題在于他說的“我是像里根和撒切爾夫人這樣卓爾不凡的政治人物,因此你們要為我設計獨一無二的競選活動,要適合我所做的以及我想要做的”。
What that meant in practice was shilling for money over the internet and turning in some incandescently angry debate performances. It worked, after a fashion. He began rising in the polls. He announced directly, “I’m going to be the nominee.” But then people started voting. The first three contests split, with Rick Santorum squeaking to victory in Iowa after spending far more time there than any other candidate; Mitt Romney winning New Hampshire, where he has a home; and Mr Gingrich unexpectedly trouncing the opposition in South Carolina. Then he lost Florida and Nevada in quick succession, his snarling pomposity punctured by a Romney barrage of negative ads.
實際上,這只不過意味著他的競選團通過因特網籌了點錢,然后就演變成一場聲勢浩大的罵戰而已。這有些作用。然后他的民調支持率開始攀升。他直接宣布:"我將成為黨內提名人。”但另一方面人們已經開始投票了。前三名的競爭者各有勝負,里克·桑托倫在愛荷華州投入的時間比任何一個候選人都多,僥幸獲勝;米特·羅姆尼在新罕布什爾州獲勝,這是他家鄉所在地;然后金里奇出人意料的在南卡羅萊納州擊敗對手。緊接著,金里奇在佛羅里達州和內華達州敗下陣來,因為羅姆尼用鋪天蓋地的負面廣告,大肆抨擊他那咄咄逼人,不可一世的嘴臉。
The Gingrich campaign had a strategy, of sorts: their hero would win the South, ending with a victory in Louisiana’s primary on March 24th, whereupon momentum would work its magic. That did not happen. Aside from South Carolina, Mr Gingrich has won precisely one of the 38 states and territories that have so far voted: his adopted home state of Georgia. In late March he sacked one-third of his campaign staff. On April 3rd he decisively lost Maryland, Washington, DC and Wisconsin, his wife’s home state. Mr Romney improved his delegate total to 634 against 263 for his closest rival, Mr Santorum. The race now goes quiet until April 24th, when five states vote, the biggest prizes being New York and Mr Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.
金里奇的競選團隊有一套策略,分為幾步:他們的主角金里奇將以南部獲勝,其中最后一戰是3月24日路易斯安那州的初選勝利,接著競選勢頭就會發揮它的魔力。可是事與愿違。除了南卡羅來納州,金里奇在已經投票的38個州和地區中只在一個地區獲得勝利:他的第二故鄉喬治亞州。3月底,他把自己競選團隊中三分之一的人給炒魷魚了。4月3日,他輸掉了馬里蘭州,華盛頓和他妻子的家鄉威斯康星州這些決定性地區的競選。羅姆尼獲得代表人的票數總計提升至634票,其最大的競爭對手桑托利姆則獲得263票。選情現在則是平平無奇,直到4月24日才會有大的波動,因為到那時五個大州將開始投票,擁有最多票數的則是紐約和桑托利姆的家鄉賓夕法尼亞州.
For the Gingrich campaign, however, the real problem had become clear some time before this week’s results. It was the voters. They kept making the wrong decision. And so Mr Gingrich’s flack announced that they were going to be “focusing exclusively on what it’ll take to win what we’re going to be calling a big-choice convention in August.” In other words, having failed to appeal to a majority, or even a plurality, of voters—the people who ostensibly select the candidate—Mr Gingrich will appeal to their superiors to correct the peons’ error. During this campaign Mr Gingrich has consistently claimed that he frightens, and is running against, “the Washington establishment”, which is of course laughable; he served ten terms in Congress before becoming a “consultant”, think-tanker and free-floating policy wonk. This strategy buries even the pretence of anti-establishmentarianism.
對于金里奇的競選來說,其存在的真正問題在本周投票結果揭曉前一段時間就已經變得清晰了.問題出在選民上。選民們一直犯錯。金里奇的廣告中宣稱,他們將“只把重點放在能讓他們贏得所謂‘8月大抉擇會戰’的那些人身上”。換句話說,因為他們未能獲得大多數,甚至是決定性數目選民的支持,于是金里奇將獲取這些人中有話語權的人的支持,來糾正這些勞苦大眾的錯誤。競選中金里奇一直宣稱,他害怕,但又將反對”華盛頓權貴“們到底,這一說法顯然十分可笑。早在金里奇成為一名”顧問“,智囊團成員和隨波逐流的政策專家之前,他就已經連任十屆國會成員。這一策略甚至讓金里奇無法打著”反正統主義“的幌子。
Explore our interactive map and guide to the race for the Republican candidacy.He has since softened his stance a bit, but he has also vowed to stay in the race until Mr Romney clinches a majority. How long that vow will last is anybody’s guess. Sheldon Adelson, a casino magnate who, together with his family, has given Mr Gingrich’s Super PAC more than $15m, said that he believes Mr Gingrich is “at the end of his line”. A recent poll showed that 60% of Republicans want him to quit the race.
看看我們的互動地圖和本次共和黨候選人提名競選的指南。金里奇的立場已經變得緩和了一些,但他仍發誓將競選進行到底,直至羅姆尼獲得絕大多數選票。這一誓言能維持多久難以預料。賭場大亨謝爾登·阿德爾森和他的家族已經給予金里奇的超級政治行動委員會超過1500萬美元,這位賭場大亨說他相信金里奇“已是窮途末路”. 最近的一次民調顯示60%的共和黨成員希望他退出競選。
Acknowledging defeat will not be easy. The next presidential race will probably attract a more daunting field of candidates, leaving little room for a man who will then be 72 and whose House career ended in censure and disgrace. In stump speeches he has traced the origins of his presidential aspirations back to 1958, when he was 15 years old. In the early 1990s he described himself as an “advocate of civilisation, definer of civilisation, teacher of the rules of civilisation…leader (possibly) of the civilising forces.” Or possibly not.
承認失敗并不容易。下一次的總統競選,將吸引更多富有實力,令人望而卻步的候選人,這樣一來,留給這位72歲,其議會生涯在譴責和恥辱中結束的男人的空間所剩無幾。在政治演說中,他曾經追憶他想當總統的起源,當時是1958年,他只有15歲。20世紀90年代早起,他形容自己是一個“文明的倡導者,文明的定義者,文明規則的教授者.....文明力量的領袖(大概吧)”. 看來事實并非如此。

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