THE difference between Barack Obama, leader and Barack Obama, campaigner is in the sleeves. When Mr Obama speaks as the president—sober, calm, head of a nation—he tends to encase them in a suit jacket. When he speaks as a candidate—fiery, enthusiastic, figurehead of a party—he loses the jacket and rolls up his shirtsleeves. One might expect him to deliver a speech on economic policy besuited. But for his barnburner on April 10th, during which he urged Congress to pass the Buffett rule, it was bare forearms start to finish.
總統奧巴馬與競選人奧巴馬這兩個頭銜的區別就在于襯衫袖的不同。當奧巴馬作為國家元首時,他身著單件西裝,集沉著冷靜于一身。而當他作為黨派領袖以候選人的身份講話時,他激情四射——此時他就褪去西裝并挽起襯衫袖子。別人還以為他會西裝筆挺地進行經濟政策的演說,然而他在4月10日發表的激動人心的演說中敦促國會通過“巴菲特規則”時,自始至終都是挽著袖子,裸露著前臂。
The Buffett rule is named after Warren Buffett, who believes it is unfair that his secretary, who makes far less than he does, pays tax at a higher marginal rate. One version, the Paying a Fair Share Act of 2012, is scheduled by Senate Democrats for a procedural vote on April 16th—as it happens, a day before federal income-tax returns must be filed. The rule aims to ensure that people earning more than $1m a year pay tax at an effective rate of 30%.
巴菲特規則是以渦沃倫·巴菲特命名的。作為億萬富翁的巴菲特,認為自己繳稅的稅率還不如手下的秘書多,盡管秘書比他掙得少多了(巴菲特繳稅的稅率約為15%,而其秘書繳納的稅率則為30%)。 一種說法稱,2012年的公平分配收入法案是參議院民主黨為了4月16日的程序性投票表決所安排的,而表決次日正是聯邦所得稅申報表的歸檔日期。這項規則旨在保證年收入超過1百萬美元的富人繳納30%的所得稅。
Many do not. A report issued by the White House a day ahead of Mr Obama’s speech found that in 2009, 22,000 households earning more than $1m paid less than 15% of their income in taxes, and 1,470 households paidno federal income tax at all. Since around 1980, average tax rates of the top 1% of American earners have fallen as their incomes have risen. Small wonder that the president proposed the Buffett rule, as Jason Furman, deputy director of the National Economic Council put it, “as a basic principle of tax fairness”.
許多富人都沒做到這點。在奧巴馬總統發表演講的前一天,一項由白宮發布的報告顯示2009年2.2萬個家庭收入超過1百萬而僅繳納不到15%的所得稅,而1470個家庭干脆沒有繳納聯邦所得稅。自大約1980年以來,美國1%的富人階層的收入增多了,但平均稅率卻降低了。只有少數人懷疑總統力挺巴菲特規則的動機,就像國際經濟委員會的會長杰森·費曼說的:這是保持公平稅收的基本準則。
Alan Viard, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank, describes the bill far less sexily: “It boils down to a partial rollback of the preferential rate for long-term capital gains.” Millionaires will retain their deductions for charitable donations, and those who already pay more than 30%—earning their millions in a payroll job, say, rather than through tax-advantaged investment—will generally be unaffected.
美國企業研究會的一名經濟學家艾蘭·維亞德是一個保守的智囊團,該法案在他眼中可遠沒有這么大的魅力:“它歸結起來就是長期資本收益優惠稅率的部分回落。”百萬富翁都會繼續進行慈善捐款活動,以少繳些稅款,而那些年收入過百萬且已繳納超過30%所得稅的人表示:通過優惠稅率的投資,他們基本上就不會受到什么影響。
Paul Ryan, a Republican congressman from Wisconsin who is emerging as Mr Obama’s foil on economic matters, complained that “people think the Buffett rule is sort of budget pixie-dust” that is “going to fix our fiscal problems”, when in fact it is forecast to raise around $47 billion in ten years, according to congressional estimates: a drop in the proverbial bucket compared with both current deficit levels and projected spending levels over that period. Republicans are also quick to point out that the question of fairness cuts both ways. The top 1% of earners already pay 40% of federal income taxes, while nearly half of all Americans pay no federal income taxes at all. Orrin Hatch, the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, dinged the bill for “being designed for no other reason than politics.”
來自威斯康星洲的共和黨議員保羅·瑞恩在奧巴馬面臨經濟事務上的挫敗時開始顯露頭角。他抱怨道:人們認為巴菲特規則是解決我們財政問題的某種有魔力的“預算仙塵”。實際上,根據國會估計,十年內預計籌集到的470億美元稅款,與當前的赤字水平和預計的支出水平相比都是微不足道的。1%的富人階層已經繳納40%的聯邦所得稅了,而近一半的美國國民卻根本不交聯邦稅。參議院財政委員會的頭等共和黨成員奧林·哈奇反復強調此法案“不過是政治手段”。
But politics is now the point. With Rick Santorum’s exit from the Republican race, the general-election season has arrived. Scott Hodge, who heads the right-leaning Tax Foundation, calls the Buffett rule “a bludgeon to hit Mitt Romney with”. Indeed it is. When Mr Obama talks about millionaires using accountants, lawyers and tax-advantaged investments to lower their tax rates, he is talking about Mr Romney—whose net worth is around $200m, and who in the past two years made $42.6m, mostly from capital gains, and paid around 15% of his income in taxes.
但目前政治就是關鍵。里克·桑多倫姆退出了共和黨競選后,大選賽季就來臨了。右傾稅務基金會首席官員斯科特·霍奇稱巴菲特規則是“用來打擊米特·羅姆尼的當頭一棒”。它也的確如此。當奧巴馬談及百萬富翁雇傭專業會計師、律師并利用優惠稅率的投資使自己繳最低的稅款時,他其實時在暗指羅姆尼——他的資本凈值大約是2億美元,在過去兩年中他賺取的4.26千萬美元大部分來自資本收益,而他只繳納了約15%的所得稅。