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There are many reasons HSBC decided to keep its headquarters in London and most of them have to do with the evolving circumstances in China. Much has changed there since the bank announced it was reviewing whether to return to its roots in China and Hong Kong.
匯豐(HSBC)決定把總部留在倫敦的原因很多，其中多數(shù)原因必然涉及中國(guó)變化中的現(xiàn)實(shí)。自該行宣布正在審議是否重返其植根于的中國(guó)內(nèi)地和香港以來(lái)，很多事情發(fā)生了變化。
For a start, the regulatory risk has soared as local and foreign investors have lost their faith in the government and regulators’ ability to manage the markets and the currency. That matters to HSBC because if it had shifted back to Hong Kong, the People’s Bank of China would have been in effect its regulator and certainly its lender of last resort.
首先，監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)飆升，本土和外國(guó)投資者對(duì)中國(guó)政府和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)管理好市場(chǎng)和人民幣匯率的能力失去了信心。這對(duì)匯豐很重要，因?yàn)槿绻撔羞w回香港，中國(guó)人民銀行(PBoC)實(shí)際上將是它的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)，同時(shí)必定是它的最后貸款人。
For the past two decades, as China’s manufacturing and its export machine prospered, it made sense for HSBC to think the mainland would contribute to an ever rising share of its profits. No bank was in a better position to mediate those flows and finance that trade.
過(guò)去20年期間，隨著中國(guó)制造業(yè)和出口機(jī)器蒸蒸日上，匯豐有理由認(rèn)為中國(guó)內(nèi)地將為其貢獻(xiàn)越來(lái)越高的盈利份額。在處理交易和提供貿(mào)易融資方面，沒(méi)有一家銀行處于比它更為有利的地位。
At the same time HSBC sought to maximise its options by taking stakes in a variety of Chinese financial institutions. These included a 20 per cent stake in Bank of Communications, and smaller stakes in insurer Ping An, which has its headquarters across the border in booming Shenzhen, and Bank of Shanghai. HSBC’s chief executive Stuart Gulliver — whose heart is in Hong Kong even as his head remains in London — spoke of opening 800 branches across China if he was not able to acquire a much bigger stake in BoCom.
與此同時(shí)，匯豐尋求通過(guò)入股中國(guó)的各類金融機(jī)構(gòu)，最大化自己的選項(xiàng)。這些交易包括收購(gòu)交通銀行(BoCom) 20%股份，以及保險(xiǎn)公司中國(guó)平安(Ping An)和上海銀行(Bank of Shanghai)的較小股份；平安的總部位于毗鄰香港的繁華城市深圳。匯豐首席執(zhí)行官歐智華(Stuart Gulliver)對(duì)香港情有獨(dú)鐘，即便理智要求他扎根倫敦。他曾談到，即使無(wú)法購(gòu)得交行的更大股份，匯豐也將在中國(guó)各地開(kāi)設(shè)800家網(wǎng)點(diǎn)。
Now though, the opportunity seems both smaller and less seductive. Growth is slowing, albeit off a huge base. The sources of growth are also changing; in future China will be more domestically driven. There will be less business for a foreign bank — and Beijing will always regard HSBC as a foreign bank.
但現(xiàn)在，中國(guó)的機(jī)遇看上去更小，也不再那么誘人。增長(zhǎng)正在放緩——盡管是從較高的基數(shù)。增長(zhǎng)的來(lái)源也在發(fā)生變化；未來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將在更大程度上由國(guó)內(nèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)。外資銀行的業(yè)務(wù)將會(huì)更少，而北京方面將永遠(yuǎn)把匯豐視為一家外資銀行。
Moreover, this is no time to be aggressively expanding in China. Mr Gulliver is an astute risk manager, who was running Asian markets during the Asian financial crisis from Hong Kong. For more than two years he has been bracing for a slowdown in China, reducing his counterparty risk with smaller financial institutions and dealing only with the most blue-chip borrowers. Although the announcement of the decision to stay in London spoke of the “particular emphasis” HSBC is putting on investing further in the Pearl River Delta”, it neglected to say that most of that is in financing HSBC’s Hong Kong corporate clients as they go across the border.
此外，現(xiàn)在不是在中國(guó)大舉擴(kuò)張的合適時(shí)機(jī)。歐智華是一個(gè)精明的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理者；當(dāng)年亞洲金融危機(jī)期間，他曾坐鎮(zhèn)香港，操盤(pán)亞洲各地市場(chǎng)。最近兩年多來(lái)，他一直在為中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)放緩做準(zhǔn)備，降低對(duì)較小金融機(jī)構(gòu)的交易對(duì)手風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并且只與最可靠的藍(lán)籌股借款人打交道。雖然匯豐在宣布決定留在倫敦的聲明中談到“特別注重”在珠三角進(jìn)一步投資，但該行沒(méi)有說(shuō)的是，這些投資大部分將是為匯豐的香港企業(yè)客戶提供融資，幫助他們?cè)谥槿亲錾狻?/p>
Both Mr Gulliver and his board recognise that this is a moment that calls for greater caution. No wonder the vote in favour of London was unanimous.
歐智華和匯豐董事會(huì)都認(rèn)識(shí)到，現(xiàn)在是需要更加謹(jǐn)慎的時(shí)刻。難怪他們一致支持留在倫敦。
