Actions, we are told, speak louder than words. If so, then China looks in good shape. Yesterday, the country’s markets reopened after the week-long Chinese new year holiday. While China was closed, Japan’s equity markets slumped one-tenth in US dollar terms, and the Japanese yen surged.
人們常說(shuō),行動(dòng)比言語(yǔ)更響亮。如果是這樣,那么中國(guó)看起來(lái)狀態(tài)不錯(cuò)。昨日,中國(guó)市場(chǎng)在春節(jié)黃金周過(guò)后重新開(kāi)盤(pán)。在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)關(guān)閉的上周,日本股市按美元計(jì)算大跌十分之一,而日元飆升。
Yet Shanghai’s return did not exacerbate the regional sell-off: the index opened down 3 per cent then rallied through the day. The renminbi, meanwhile, had its strongest bounce since 2005, up more than 1 per cent, especially curious after January trade data highlighted China’s poor economy. Exports fell more than one-tenth year-on-year, overshooting the anticipated 2 per cent drop. Imports, meanwhile, contracted one-fifth in US dollar terms — again, far worse than forecast.
然而,上海股市在開(kāi)盤(pán)后并沒(méi)有加劇地區(qū)拋售:指數(shù)開(kāi)盤(pán)下跌3%后在當(dāng)日余下時(shí)間呈現(xiàn)漲勢(shì)。與此同時(shí),人民幣匯率出現(xiàn)自2005年以來(lái)最強(qiáng)勁的反彈,漲幅超過(guò)1%;在1月份貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)突顯中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況欠佳后,這尤其令人費(fèi)解。按美元計(jì)算,出口同比下降逾十分之一,降幅遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期的2%,進(jìn)口減少五分之一,同樣遠(yuǎn)遜于預(yù)測(cè)。
These figures say more about the parlous state of the external situation than they do about China — exports to the EU, among others, were particularly poor. And while the import figure suggests a slowdown in internal demand, it was unduly influenced by collapsing commodity prices. Iron ore imports, for instance, grew 5 per cent in volume terms but dropped one-third in value terms, according to HSBC.
這些數(shù)字在更大程度上說(shuō)明了外部形勢(shì)的嚴(yán)峻,而非中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的局面——其中對(duì)歐盟的出口表現(xiàn)特別糟糕。同時(shí),盡管進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)似乎表明內(nèi)需放緩,但它受到了大宗商品價(jià)格崩盤(pán)的較大影響。據(jù)匯豐(HSBC)介紹,以鐵礦石為例,中國(guó)進(jìn)口量增長(zhǎng)了5%,但在價(jià)值上降低了三分之一。
Other parts of China’s domestic economy are doing just fine. Chinese new year spending on food and retail rose 11 per cent year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Finance. Leisure pursuits, in the consumer-driven economy, fared even better. Cinema box office take rose 80 per cent year-on-year for the first three days of the holiday, equalling revenues for the entire week-long holiday last year.
中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的其他部分表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)。根據(jù)中國(guó)商務(wù)部的數(shù)據(jù),春節(jié)黃金周全國(guó)零售和餐飲銷(xiāo)售額同比增長(zhǎng)11%。在消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)中,休閑娛樂(lè)活動(dòng)表現(xiàn)更佳。初一到初三全國(guó)電影票房同比增長(zhǎng)80%,相當(dāng)于去年春節(jié)黃金周的總票房。
And people travelled, too: visitors to domestic attractions such as Chengdu’s panda reserve rose more than two-fifths.
人們也積極外出旅游。國(guó)內(nèi)景點(diǎn)游客人數(shù)增加,比如初五成都大熊貓基地的游客人數(shù)就增加了逾五分之二。
Despite these encouraging signs, Zhou Xiaochuan, People’s Bank of China governor, made the difference. Over the weekend, he calmed fears of currency devaluation and capital controls. Perhaps words carry more weight than actions after all.
盡管有這些令人鼓舞的跡象,但起到?jīng)Q定性作用的還是中國(guó)人民銀行(PBoC)行長(zhǎng)周小川。上周末,他安撫了外界對(duì)于人民幣貶值和資本管制的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。也許言語(yǔ)最終還是比行動(dòng)更有份量。