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Geopolitics and geoeconomics are pounding down on the oil market, and the price seems to have no place to hide.
地緣政治和地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)正在對石油市場狂轟濫炸，而油價似乎無處可藏。
The latest barrage comes this week from the re-entry of sanctioned Iranian oil to the world market, triggered by Tehran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement. The lifting of sanctions, originally expected to happen in March or April, was sped up to bolster support for President Rouhani in Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections. As a result, the returning oil will arrive in an already glutted market at a time of maximum seasonal weakness — and when geoeconomic pressures are mounting.
最新的炮火是在本周落下的。由于德黑蘭遵守了核協(xié)議，曾經(jīng)受到制裁的伊朗石油重新進(jìn)入世界市場。制裁原本預(yù)計將于3月或者4月解除，為了在即將開始的伊朗議會選舉中增強(qiáng)對伊朗總統(tǒng)哈桑脠哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)的支持，這一過程加快了。結(jié)果是，伊朗石油將在季節(jié)性疲軟最嚴(yán)重、且地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力正在上升的時期，進(jìn)入一個已經(jīng)供過于求的市場。
Oil prices are within hailing distance of where they were at the end of 2003, before China’s economic take-off ignited the so-called commodity “supercycle”, which drove up the prices of oil and other commodities. But the China of 10 per cent annual growth is no more. The question that now haunts the oil market is whether what we are seeing is China’s transition from an industrial to a consumer and services-oriented economy, or whether there are deeper structural problems that mean slower growth and more turbulence of the kind recently seen in the Chinese stock market. The significance for the global economy is enormous, and a weaker world economy means less growth in demand for oil at a time when world supplies are swelling.
油價已經(jīng)接近2003年末的水平，那時中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)騰飛還未催生拉高石油和其他大宗商品價格的所謂大宗商品“超級周期”。但中國經(jīng)濟(jì)年增長10%的情景已成為過去。現(xiàn)在困擾石油市場的問題是，當(dāng)前我們所看到的情景是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型——從工業(yè)導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)向以消費(fèi)和服務(wù)業(yè)為導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變——所致，還是存在更深層的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題，這些問題引起增長放緩，以及更多的市場動蕩（類似于中國股市最近經(jīng)歷的）。這個問題對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)具有重大意義，而世界經(jīng)濟(jì)更為疲弱，就意味著在世界石油供給上升的時候，石油需求的增長會減慢。
The stronger dollar is also buffeting the oil price. A decade ago, when the price was surging and the dollar (in which oil prices are denominated) was weakening, economists talked about how oil moves “co-negatively” with the dollar exchange rate — when the dollar goes down oil prices go up. The opposite is happening today.
美元走強(qiáng)也沖擊著油價。10年前，當(dāng)石油價格飆升，而美元（石油以美元計價）走弱的時候，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說石油和美元匯率的走勢是“負(fù)相關(guān)”的——美元走低時油價上升。如今，情況正好相反。
The oil price collapses in 1986 and 1998 ended when oil exporters got together and reined in production. But geopolitics is working against a quick settlement this time. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries believe that Iran is seeking to become the dominant power in the Middle East. The nuclear agreement not only provides Iran with billions of dollars that had been sitting in international banks because of sanctions, but also enhances Iran’s political position.
1986年和1998年的油價大跌因為石油出口國聯(lián)合起來控制產(chǎn)量而告終。但這一次地緣政治不利于問題的快速解決。沙特阿拉伯和其他海灣國家認(rèn)為，伊朗正尋求成為中東地區(qū)占據(jù)支配地位的強(qiáng)國。核協(xié)議不僅為伊朗提供了此前因制裁而凍結(jié)在國際銀行中的大量資金，還加強(qiáng)了伊朗的政治地位。
The Gulf countries fear this could be further augmented if it leads to some kind of US-Iranian detente. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, says nothing like that will ever happen. But in the face of a resurgent Iran, the last thing that the Gulf countries want to do is cut back their own oil production in order to surrender space for additional Iranian exports into Asia and northwestern Europe.
海灣國家擔(dān)心，伊朗地位可能進(jìn)一步上升，如果核協(xié)議使美國和伊朗關(guān)系出現(xiàn)某種緩和的話。伊朗最高領(lǐng)袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內(nèi)伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)表示，像這樣的事情永遠(yuǎn)不會發(fā)生。但面對再度崛起的伊朗，海灣國家最不愿意做的事情就是減產(chǎn)，讓出空間讓額外的伊朗石油得以出口到亞洲和歐洲西北部。
Today’s weak oil prices are having a devastating impact on the global energy industry and are putting enormous stress on oil-exporting countries, and on some regions in the US, Canada, Scotland and elsewhere. Worldwide, projects are being slowed, postponed or cancelled, which will begin to affect availability of supplies two or three years from now. IHS projections show a $1.8tn reduction between 2015 and 2020. Skilled professionals are leaving the industry and many will never return.
疲軟的油價正對全球能源行業(yè)產(chǎn)生破壞性影響，也給石油出口國，以及美國、加拿大、蘇格蘭和其他地區(qū)帶來了巨大壓力。在全球范圍內(nèi)，多個項目被放慢進(jìn)度、推遲或取消，這將會在兩三年后開始影響石油的供應(yīng)量。IHS的預(yù)測顯示，2015年到2020年期間相關(guān)投資減少1.8萬億美元。高級專業(yè)人員正在離開這個行業(yè)，許多人永遠(yuǎn)都不會再干回這一行。
This steady stream of negative developments only reinforces the sentiment that is weighing down on the oil price. One can add to this the fear among some that the global industry could run out of places to store the surplus.
這一穩(wěn)定的負(fù)面發(fā)展潮流，只會加劇正在壓低油價的市場情緒。除此之外，還有部分人擔(dān)心，全球石油行業(yè)可能會沒有地方存儲過剩石油。
What could reverse the collapse? Later this year, or in 2017, the workings of supply and demand are likely to start to bring the market back into balance. But there will be a great deal of wrenching anguish between now and then. Alternatively, the impact of the price collapse could be so devastating that exporting countries that have said they will not restrain production — including Russia and even Iran — could change their position and come to terms with the Gulf countries, who insist that they will not cut by themselves.
什么因素可能扭轉(zhuǎn)石油跌勢？今年晚些時候或2017年，供需因素的運(yùn)行可能會開始令市場重返平衡狀態(tài)。然而，從現(xiàn)在起到那時，市場將會經(jīng)歷許多令人糾結(jié)的痛苦。還有一種可能就是，油價崩盤的破壞力之大，可能會令那些原本表示不會減產(chǎn)的石油出口國（包括俄羅斯，甚至伊朗）改變立場，與堅稱不會獨(dú)自減產(chǎn)的海灣國家達(dá)成協(xié)議。
Then there is American shale oil. US oil output is down about half a million barrels from last April — not as much as was expected last year, partly because new offshore supplies from the Gulf of Mexico are offsetting the decline in shale. However, further declines in US shale would certainly serve to mitigate the widespread market pessimism.
還有就是美國的頁巖油。自去年4月以來，美國石油產(chǎn)量下滑了約50萬桶，下滑幅度低于去年的預(yù)期，這部分是由于來自墨西哥灣的新增離岸石油供應(yīng)填補(bǔ)了頁巖油產(chǎn)量的下滑。不過，美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量的進(jìn)一步下滑，無疑會起到緩解市場普遍悲觀情緒的作用。
Ironically, another counterweight to that pessimism could come from the fact that sanctions have been lifted on Iranian oil. The agreement of the nuclear deal removes a big uncertainty that has been hanging over the market. Now the question is exactly how much additional oil the Iranians will — or can — bring back to the market. Iran’s finance minister has described the current oil price as representing “an all-out war” for market share. But if the actual volumes turn out to be lower than has been anticipated, or if the Iranians are slower in bringing them back, then the market would have further reason to moderate its bleak outlook.
諷刺的是，另一個可能會減淡這種悲觀情緒的因素是對伊朗石油的制裁解除這件事。核協(xié)議的達(dá)成，消除了困擾市場的一大不確定性因素。如今，問題變成伊朗到底會（或者到底能夠）向市場增加多少石油供應(yīng)。伊朗財政部長曾稱，目前的油價代表著一場爭奪市場份額的“全面戰(zhàn)爭”就要打響。然而如果伊朗實際恢復(fù)的石油供應(yīng)量低于預(yù)期，或者如果伊朗石油進(jìn)入國際市場的腳步比較慢，那么市場的黯淡前景就有進(jìn)一步理由緩和一下。
The direction of the oil price and, to a considerable degree, the future of highly volatile global financial markets hang on the outcome.
油價的走向取決這一結(jié)果，跌宕起伏的全球金融市場未來前景如何，很大程度上也要看這一結(jié)果。
