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All is not well in the special administrative region of Hong Kong — and not just in the stock market. Shopping, once a favoured pastime in the city, is losing its appeal. Luxury brands have been feeling the pinch for some months, and the malaise is spreading to their landlords. Last September Coach, the US fashion retailer, closed its flagship shop in Central. In November, Burberry said it would give up a floor of its main shop in Pacific Place, a mall owned by landlord Swire Properties.
香港特別行政區(qū)近來有點(diǎn)不順——不僅僅是在股市。購物，這座城市曾經(jīng)最鐘愛的消遣方式，正漸漸失去吸引力。近幾個(gè)月來，奢侈品牌感受到壓力，而這波低迷正傳染給它們的業(yè)主。去年9月，美國時(shí)尚零售商蔻馳(Coach)關(guān)閉了位于中環(huán)的旗艦店。11月，博柏利(Burberry)表示會(huì)放棄其在太古廣場(Pacific Place)主要門店的一個(gè)樓層，太古廣場的業(yè)主是太古地產(chǎn)(Swire Properties)。
Savills data show that high streets have been hardest hit. Last October, the property expert said that rents on three-year high street leases had fallen 30 to 40 per cent versus prior year levels. Still, the mall format — typically favoured by Hong Kong’s large listed landlords — was relatively resilient. Mall rents rose 2 per cent as a flight to safety in numbers kept occupancy rates firm. Souring consumer sentiment and strained mainland relations suggest the situation may worsen. Macquarie expects the downturn could last until luxury sales bottom at the end of 2016.
第一太平戴維斯(Savills)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，商業(yè)街地產(chǎn)受到的沖擊最嚴(yán)重。去年10月，該房產(chǎn)專業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)稱，三年期商業(yè)街地產(chǎn)的租金同比降低了30%至40%。盡管如此，購物中心類型的地產(chǎn)（這是香港大型上市房地產(chǎn)公司一般青睞的地產(chǎn)）比較抗跌。購物中心商鋪的租金上漲了2%，原因是“扎堆以求安全”的心理保持出租率高企。消費(fèi)者情緒變糟和香港與內(nèi)地關(guān)系緊張似乎表明，情況可能惡化。麥格理(Macquarie)預(yù)計(jì)地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的不景氣可能延續(xù)到奢侈品銷售在2016年底觸底。
For some landlords, this could be in the price. Hang Lung Properties, which in the first half of 2015 earned one-quarter of its top line from Hong Kong retail leases, has fallen nearly two-thirds from its 2010 post-crisis peak. Wharf, with 70 per cent of its operating profit coming from Hong Kong retail properties including Harbour City and Times Square, has halved since 2013. The two stocks trade at their lowest historical price-to-book values in more than a decade; only during the Asia crisis have these been lower.
對一些業(yè)主來說，這可能已體現(xiàn)在股價(jià)上。恒隆地產(chǎn)(Hang Lung Properties) 2015年上半年的營收中，四分之一是來自香港零售地產(chǎn)的租金，其股價(jià)比2010年金融危機(jī)之后的最高值跌了近三分之二。營業(yè)利潤有70%來自香港零售物業(yè)（包括海港城和時(shí)代廣場）的九龍倉(Wharf)集團(tuán)，自2013年來股價(jià)已經(jīng)減半。這兩只股票的股價(jià)所反映的市凈率是10多年來最低的；只有亞洲金融危機(jī)時(shí)才更低。
Even if the recovery takes time to come through, juicy yields of roughly 5 per cent look defensible. Hang Lung Properties, for instance, has zero net debt. Last year it paid out less than one-third of earnings; even in the worst post-crisis year, 2009, the dividend — which it has committed to maintaining or raising each year — was two-thirds covered by earnings.
雖然業(yè)績復(fù)蘇需要一段時(shí)間才能體現(xiàn)在價(jià)格上，但大約5%的誘人股息率看來是靠得住的。以恒隆地產(chǎn)為例，其凈債務(wù)為零。去年，恒隆派出的股息還不到利潤的三分之一；即便是在2009年——金融危機(jī)之后最困難的一年，恒隆的股息（它承諾維持或每年有所提高）也有三分之二得到利潤覆蓋。
Shopping may be out of favour in Hong Kong; bargain-hunters should sift through the landlords.
購物可能不再為香港人所熱衷，但股市操盤手應(yīng)該在地產(chǎn)股中挑一挑。
