評(píng)論
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Markets favour clarity and while clarity seems easy with hindsight, it’s rarely as stress-free when looking ahead.
市場(chǎng)喜歡清晰；雖然事后來(lái)看有些事情顯而易見，但在展望未來(lái)時(shí)卻很少會(huì)那么毫無(wú)壓力地看得清楚。
It’s interesting how that can be forgotten — in particular at moments of transition for markets and the macro economy. We are at a transition point currently and transitions are bumpy. As an investor, it’s important to determine the implications of being right or wrong about a particular path. What should never be in doubt is the need for long-term money to stay invested.
有趣的是，人們?cè)趺磿?huì)忘記這一點(diǎn)，尤其是在市場(chǎng)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)折之際。我們目前正在轉(zhuǎn)折期間，而轉(zhuǎn)折是顛簸的。作為一名投資者，重要的是確定某一條路徑正確與否的潛在影響。永遠(yuǎn)不應(yīng)懷疑的是，長(zhǎng)期資金有必要持續(xù)投資。
We have seen several strong double-digit-return years since the financial crisis. Higher than normal returns become expected and they shouldn’t be. We’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle and, in reality, it offers less clarity than investors have come to expect from an ageing bull market. The outlook is good, not great, and the risks have risen. Return expectations need to be managed lower.
自金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，我們已經(jīng)看到有多年取得了兩位數(shù)的強(qiáng)勁回報(bào)。超過(guò)正常水平的回報(bào)率變成了人們期望的常態(tài)，這是不應(yīng)該的。我們進(jìn)入了這個(gè)投資周期的末期，現(xiàn)實(shí)地講，它提供的清晰度不如投資者對(duì)一個(gè)年邁的牛市產(chǎn)生的預(yù)期。前景不錯(cuò)，但并非特別好，而風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)上升。回報(bào)預(yù)期有必要被調(diào)低。
Global growth slowed last year, stalled by emerging economies. The US and China are the foundation economies for sustainable moderate global growth. We do not believe that the US or China will fall into recession in 2016. China falling into recession would, in our opinion, be more damaging to global growth than a more aggressive path of Fed tightening.
去年全球增長(zhǎng)由于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的拖累而放緩。美國(guó)和中國(guó)是全球可持續(xù)適度增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。我們認(rèn)為美國(guó)和中國(guó)不會(huì)在2016年陷入衰退。在我們看來(lái)，中國(guó)陷入衰退對(duì)全球增長(zhǎng)的破壞將超過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)走上更為激進(jìn)的收緊政策之路。
The US is furthest along in expansion, with Europe and Japan in recovery but clearly disappointing in momentum. Emerging markets are recovering from a credit crunch and an overextended investment boom. We have had meaningful debate about whether emerging markets will be the tipping point that stalls the global economy in 2016. While not our base case, we remain concerned that there may be additional spillover effects from developing economies that can weigh again on global markets.
美國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張的路上走得最遠(yuǎn)，歐洲和日本正在復(fù)蘇，但顯然在勢(shì)頭方面令人失望。新興市場(chǎng)正在從信貸危機(jī)和過(guò)度的投資熱潮中復(fù)蘇。我們已經(jīng)就新興市場(chǎng)會(huì)不會(huì)是2016年拖累全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的引爆點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了有意義的辯論。我們依然擔(dān)心，發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能產(chǎn)生更多的溢出效應(yīng)，再度拖累全球市場(chǎng)，盡管這并非我們的基準(zhǔn)預(yù)測(cè)。
Should commodity market rebalancing get worse, the non-linear effects of lower commodity prices may lead to a significant rise in financial stress, defaults and possible contagion. Latin America, the Middle East and Africa stand out as ongoing concerns. Asia continues to look better positioned to navigate the year ahead but we expect local currency markets to be a great deal more volatile and pressured. Fed tightening and China’s response via currency depreciation will be the drivers.
如果大宗商品市場(chǎng)的再平衡惡化，大宗商品價(jià)格下跌的非線性效應(yīng)可能導(dǎo)致金融壓力顯著上升、違約，還有可能蔓延。拉美、中東和非洲持續(xù)令人擔(dān)憂。亞洲繼續(xù)有望在未來(lái)一年處于比較有利的地位，但我們預(yù)計(jì)當(dāng)?shù)貐R市將會(huì)劇烈波動(dòng)，并承受巨大壓力。推動(dòng)因素將是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊政策以及中國(guó)通過(guò)貶值來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)。
It’s easy to point to the drumbeat for Fed tightening as the culprit behind challenging equity markets. In reality, high valuations, as well as disappointing sales and earnings, have more to do with it. While we are not overly concerned about current valuation levels, returns need to be driven by earnings growth.
人們很容易將美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊政策的號(hào)角視為股市低迷的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?shí)際上，高估值以及令人失望的銷售數(shù)據(jù)和利潤(rùn)的因素更大一些。盡管我們沒有過(guò)度擔(dān)憂當(dāng)前的估值水平，但回報(bào)率需要得到利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)。
Earnings dispersion remains an important driver of sector returns but the year ahead is going to be more nuanced and company-specific. That should favour active managers.
盈利的離散性仍是具體行業(yè)回報(bào)的重要推動(dòng)因素，但未來(lái)一年的差別將更加細(xì)膩，要具體分析特定公司的情況，這應(yīng)該有利于主動(dòng)型基金經(jīng)理。
It is central to note that portfolio diversification becomes more important the later we get in a cycle — there is less of a value cushion to allow for being wrong. That puts greater emphasis on the need for diversification of investment risk across a portfolio. Asset allocation, at its core, is about measuring and managing investment risk. The further along in a cycle, the more important it becomes.
有必要指出的是，越處于投資周期的末期，分散投資就越重要——允許犯錯(cuò)的價(jià)值緩沖減少了。這意味著在投資組合中更加注重分散投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。資產(chǎn)配置的核心內(nèi)涵就是衡量和管理投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一個(gè)周期越接近末期，資產(chǎn)配置就越重要。
Investors should expect low single-digit returns from fixed income and, hopefully, mid-to-high single-digit returns from equity markets. Equity market returns will be driven by earnings growth and dividends. If earnings disappoint, valuations will be under pressure as investors demand a higher risk premium for a less certain earnings stream. That will lower returns. A lack of clarity is discounted by markets in the form of higher risk premia — whether wider credit spreads or lower equity multiples.
投資者的預(yù)期應(yīng)該是從固定收益獲得較小的個(gè)位數(shù)回報(bào)，從股市獲得較高的個(gè)位數(shù)回報(bào)。股市回報(bào)將受到利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)和股息的推動(dòng)。如果利潤(rùn)令人失望，估值將會(huì)承壓，因?yàn)橥顿Y者要求對(duì)不那么確定的利潤(rùn)流獲得更高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。這將降低回報(bào)率。缺乏清晰度被市場(chǎng)以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)上升的形式計(jì)入——無(wú)論是信貸息差擴(kuò)大還是股市市盈率降低。
Across portfolios we are overweight global equities and alternative investments versus fixed income. Coming into 2016, the size of our equity overweight versus benchmarks is lower. We are overweight developed equity markets, avoiding emerging markets for now and continue to invest in hedge funds across portfolios that can own them. We currently hold no direct investment allocations to commodities.
在整個(gè)投資組合中，我們?cè)谌蚬墒泻土眍愅顿Y上超配，固定收益上低配。進(jìn)入2016年之際，我們?cè)诠墒械某涑潭认陆怠Ｎ覀儸F(xiàn)在在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的股市超配，暫時(shí)回避新興市場(chǎng)，并繼續(xù)在可以擁有對(duì)沖基金的投資組合中投資于對(duì)沖基金。我們目前沒有直接的大宗商品投資。
Market and macro expansions tend to run longer and we believe we’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle, an important transition point. The path of least resistance for markets is to move higher — but at a slower and bumpier pace.
市場(chǎng)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張的周期往往較長(zhǎng)，我們相信現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了投資周期的末期，這是一個(gè)重要的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。對(duì)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，阻力最小的路徑是向上走，但步伐將更為緩慢和坎坷。
