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5. The United States of America, circa 1950: 50% of global output
5. 美國，1950年前后：占全球經濟產出總量的50%
By the end of World War II, the U.S. produced half of the world’s economic output, by some estimates. However, that statistic is a bit misleading. It’s not that America was twice as dominant at its height than other states on this list. After all, America was only briefly this dominant, due mostly to the fact that most of the developed world’s economies had been destroyed by World War II. Yes, America likely became the world’s largest economy in the late 19th century on the strength of its large population, vast natural resources, and entrepreneurial spirit. But its total economic dominance in the middle of the last century was a product of the war.
據某些估算數據顯示，第二次世界大戰結束時，美國的經濟產出已經達到全球總量的一半。不過，這個統計數字有點容易讓人誤解。這并不是說，美國巔峰時期的經濟實力比其他四大經濟帝國高出兩倍。畢竟，美國登上這一霸主地位為時尚短，而且它的成功在很大程度上是因為，大部分的發達經濟體都因第二次世界大戰而崩潰。是的，鑒于美國人口眾多、自然資源豐富并且富有開拓精神，該國本就有希望在十九世紀后期成為全世界最大的經濟體。但在上世紀中葉，美國在經濟上占據的霸主地位只是第二次世界大戰的產物。
Since that time, America’s relative power has been on the decline, not because of slow growth at home, but because the rest of the world is catching up. But as you can see, this follows a broad historical pattern: economic revolutions occur in one part of the world, and then spread elsewhere. Kings of the economic hill are difficult to unseat, and are usually only overthrown following massive conflicts, or because of some economic revolution elsewhere. Britain gained its status because of the industrial revolution, which enabled it to smash through the growth ceiling that agricultural economies faced. “We may face a similar ceiling for fossil fuel societies,” says Ian Morris, “and if the same historical rhythms keep playing out, then the only way to get through that will be that we also have to revolutionize the way we do things.”
自那時以來，美國的相對實力一直呈現衰落的態勢，這并不是因為美國國內經濟增長放緩，而是因為世界其他國家正在迎頭趕上。但是，如你所見，這遵循的正是一種普遍的歷史發展模式：經濟革命在世界上的某個地方發生，然后蔓延到其他地方。全球經濟霸主的地位很難撼動，通常只有在發生大規模沖突之后，或者由于其他地方發生某種經濟革命，才會被推翻。英國之所以贏得了經濟帝國的地位，全因工業革命讓它能夠沖破農業經濟所面臨的經濟發展天花板。伊恩•莫里斯說：“我們現在的礦物燃料社會可能也會面臨類似的天花板。而如果歷史繼續呈現同樣的發展節奏，要突破這種經濟增長天花板的唯一途徑，就只有徹底地改變我們發展經濟的模式。
