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Rory McIlroy is not having a good season on the golf course. A year ago the wunderkind from Northern Ireland finished second in the rankings. This year he did not even qualify for the end-of-season Tour Championship. But he is not the only one fluffing his shots. Adidas, the German sportswear maker, has cut its full-year net income guidance by almost a tenth, to between 820m and 850m. That sent its shares down 4 per cent on Friday. One of the reasons it cited was the poor state of the global golf market.
來自北愛爾蘭的高爾夫神童羅里•麥克羅伊(Rory McIlroy)本賽季發(fā)揮不好。去年排名第二的他，今年甚至未能獲得賽季末巡回錦標(biāo)賽的參賽資格。但他不是唯一搞砸了的人。德國運動用品制造商阿迪達(dá)斯(Adidas)將其全年凈利潤指引調(diào)低了近十分之一，目前預(yù)計在8.2億至8.5億歐元之間。這個消息導(dǎo)致周五阿迪達(dá)斯股價下跌4%。阿迪達(dá)斯提到的原因中，有一條就是全球高爾夫市場不景氣。
It seems that golfers the world over are not stocking up on new drivers and irons. But that is not the only reason why Adidas revised its forecasts. Continued weakness in a range of currencies from the Russian rouble to the Argentine peso against the euro played a part. This is not surprising. Currency effects had already wiped 3 per cent off group sales in the first half from a year earlier. Adidas’ German rival Puma, which also books its sales in euros, is suffering too.
全世界的高爾夫球員看上去都停止了添置新球桿，不管是木桿還是鐵桿。但這并不是阿迪達(dá)斯調(diào)低收益預(yù)期的唯一原因。還有一個原因是，從俄羅斯盧布到阿根廷比索等一系列貨幣對歐元比價持續(xù)走低。這并不令人意外。匯率效應(yīng)已導(dǎo)致阿迪達(dá)斯今年上半年銷售額同比下跌3%。阿迪達(dá)斯的德國競爭對手彪馬(Puma)日子也不好過，彪馬的銷售額也以歐元計算。
More worrying for Adidas was a hiccup at one of its new distribution centres in Russia, its third-biggest market after the US and China. Its strength in Russia gives it an advantage that helps to offset the global superiority of its biggest rival, Nike. The US sportswear group commands more market share in all of its key markets and has operating margins of 13 per cent, nearly two-thirds more than Adidas. What is more, as Adidas moves away from its flagging Reebok brand, especially in the US, it is Nike, not Adidas, that is picking up the share.
對阿迪達(dá)斯而言，更令人擔(dān)憂的是俄羅斯的一個新銷售中心發(fā)展不順利。俄羅斯是阿迪達(dá)斯僅次于美國和中國的第三大市場，俄羅斯業(yè)務(wù)的強(qiáng)勁增長曾是阿迪達(dá)斯相對于最大競爭對手耐克(Nike)的一個優(yōu)勢，而耐克在全球范圍里領(lǐng)先于阿迪達(dá)斯。美國運動用品集團(tuán)耐克在其所有關(guān)鍵市場上都占有更高的市場份額，營運利潤率高達(dá)13%，比阿迪達(dá)斯高出近三分之二。此外，隨著阿迪達(dá)斯逐漸放棄旗下江河日下的銳步(Reebok)品牌（特別是在美國），吞下銳步吐出的那部分市場份額的不是阿迪達(dá)斯，而是耐克。
In the circumstances, it is not surprising that the outperformance of Nike extends to the stock market. Traditionally the share prices of the two industry behemoths track each other closely. But this year Nike’s shares have gained a third, more than twice as much as Adidas’s, with most of the gains coming this month. That has widened the valuation gap. Nike now trades on 23 times forward earnings, a chunky 60 per cent ahead of Adidas. The latter still has room to grow in China, and it is sponsoring most of the big teams in next year’s Fifa World Cup in Brazil. Like Mr McIlroy, Adidas should not be written off yet.
在這種形勢下，業(yè)績優(yōu)異的耐克在股市上跑贏也就不足為奇了。一般來說，耐克和阿迪達(dá)斯這兩大行業(yè)巨頭的股價走勢不分上下。但耐克的股價今年累計上漲了三分之一，漲幅為阿迪達(dá)斯的兩倍以上，大部分漲幅發(fā)生在本月。這拉開了雙方的估值差距。耐克目前的預(yù)期市盈率為23倍，比阿迪達(dá)斯高出足足60%。阿迪達(dá)斯在中國市場上仍有增長空間，它也是明年巴西世界杯(Fifa World Cup)多數(shù)主要球隊的贊助商。和麥克羅伊一樣，目前阿迪達(dá)斯這只個股并非完全不值得考慮。
