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England's blustery Dorset coast seems an unlikely setting for retirement planning lessons, but actually it's perfect. That's where this summer's Olympic sailboat races will take place, and viewers new to sailing will learn a surprising fact: You can sail into the wind. You need to tack in ways that aren't necessary when the wind is behind you, but do it right and you'll move bracingly fast.
英格蘭狂風咆哮的多塞特郡海岸看起來不像是開設退休計劃課程的地方，可實際上沒有比這里更理想的地方了。今夏奧運會的帆船比賽將在這里舉行，而帆船運動的新觀眾將學到令人吃驚的新知識：我們居然可以迎風前行。不過和順風時不同，我們必須搶風行駛，但如果行動得當，前進的速度簡直令人振奮。
That's retirement planning today. You're feeling virtually all the financial winds right in your face. Strapped governments at every level will be giving you fewer services and taking more from you in taxes and fees. Inflation may be creeping up. Employers will continue the long-term trend of whittling retirement security by freezing or abolishing the few remaining defined-benefit pension plans and reducing company contributions to 401(k) plans. As for your investment portfolio -- forget those reassuring historical stock market returns of around 11% annually and note that recent years have been far grimmer: The S&P 500 (SPX) is right where it was more than 12 years ago, in January 1999. Warren Buffett assumes Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) pension plan will earn a modest 7.1% a year.
那就像如今的退休計劃。感覺所有的金融風暴都撲面而來。深陷其中的各級政府提供的服務越來越少，而繳稅和收費卻越來越多。通貨膨脹繼續爬升。雇主凍結、取消剩余為數不多的確定收益的養老金計劃，同時還減少了公司對401(k)計劃（美國公司的工資儲蓄投資養老計劃——譯注）的繳納金額，從而延續削減退休保障的長期趨勢。至于我們的投資組合，忘記令人欣慰的股票市場歷史回報率吧，近年的數據比11%悲慘得多：標普500（the S&P 500）和12年多以前的1999年1月一樣。股神巴菲特認為伯克希爾哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）公司的養老金計劃每年回報將只有區區7.1%。
One more fact: You'll probably live longer than you expect, a wonderful thing in every way except financially. New research from the Society of Actuaries finds that 57% of pre-retirees underestimate life expectancy from their current age, while only 28% overestimate. Your nest egg may have to last much longer than you thought.
另一個事實：你很可能活得比預期長，真是大好事，當然，錢這個問題除外。北美精算學會（Society of Actuaries）新近的研究發現：57%的前退休人員在其當前年紀低估了預期壽命，而高估者僅有28%。我們的儲蓄需要維持的時間也許比當初計劃的長得多。
Those are formidable headwinds. Yet as the Olympic sailors will remind us, you're not condemned to being blown backward. The right tactics will propel you ahead even now. Think of your practical next steps in three categories.
這些都是可怕的逆風。然而就像奧運會帆船選手提醒我們的那樣，我們并不是命中注定會被吹到后退。只要有正確的策略，現在我們都可以逆風前行。想一想下一步，不外乎下面三個類別。
Save smarter
更聰明地存錢
In today's low-yield environment, most of us must salt away more. Easy to say, hard to do. If your employer hasn't adopted the Save More Tomorrow program, urge it to do so; and if it won't, then follow the program on your own. Developed by UCLA business professor Schlomo Benartzi and behavioral economist Richard Thaler, it lets employees pre-commit to saving more every time they get a pay raise. It works -- participants save much more than nonparticipants.
今天的收益率這么低，在這樣的大環境下，大多數人必須留出更多儲蓄。說起來容易做起來難。如果你的雇主還沒有采用Save More Tomorrow儲蓄計劃，敦促它趕快采用，如果它不愿意，你可以自行執行該計劃。加州大學洛杉磯分校（UCLA）商學院教授施羅默•伯納茲和行為經濟學家理查德•塞勒制定了這個計劃，讓雇員預先承諾每次漲工資都留下更多儲蓄。這個方案是可行的：參與者的儲蓄比非參與者多得多。
In choosing your saving rate, face the new reality of inflation. Experts debate whether years of monetary loosening in the U.S. and other major economies will push up prices significantly, but ignoring the risk would be foolish. Suppose you'd like your portfolio to pay you $100, 000 a year (in constant dollars) for 30 years. With an after-tax return of 6% and inflation at 2%, a nest egg of $1.82 million will do the job. But if inflation turns out to be just one point higher than you assumed, at 3%, you'll need another quarter million dollars.
選擇儲蓄率的時候還要考慮通貨膨脹的新現實。專家還在為美國和其它經濟體長達數年的貨幣寬松政策是否會嚴重推高物價這個問題爭得不可開交，但忽視這個風險極其愚蠢。假定你希望投資組合在30年中每年支付你10萬美元（按不變美元計）。如果稅后回報6%，通脹2%，你只需182萬美元的儲蓄就夠了。但如果通脹最終比你假定的高一個百分點，達到3%，你就需要額外的25萬美元來完成退休計劃。
