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The flavor of the month in emerging markets is a fish-based broth with rice noodles, ginger and lemongrass called mohinga. Myanmar's national dish, it's sure to be on the menu at this week's World Economic Forum event in the former pariah state.
本月，從新興市場(chǎng)飄來(lái)的香味是一種被稱(chēng)為“魚(yú)板面”(mohinga)的緬甸國(guó)菜。魚(yú)板面以魚(yú)湯為底，加入米粉，再配以生姜和香茅等調(diào)料。本周，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)在緬甸這個(gè)曾經(jīng)被孤立的國(guó)家召開(kāi)會(huì)議期間，魚(yú)板面一定會(huì)出現(xiàn)在菜單上。
While Myanmar is a mouthwatering a proposition, gorging on it too soon carries a lot of risk. The country ticks many boxes in terms of potential. Its population of 60 million has almost zero cellphone penetration. It's in a logistical sweet spot between China and India and is rich in natural resources. New laws, including measures to allow 100% foreign ownership of companies in some sectors, show the politicians are open to foreign investment.
雖然緬甸令人垂涎，但過(guò)于著急地“狼吞虎咽”也可能帶來(lái)很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。緬甸在很多方面都具有潛力。這個(gè)人口6,000萬(wàn)的國(guó)家?guī)缀鯖](méi)有手機(jī)。從物流角度看，該國(guó)處于中印之間的絕佳位置，且自然資源豐富。該國(guó)出臺(tái)的多部新法律表明（比如在緬甸某些地區(qū)有法律允許外資對(duì)企業(yè)100%控股），緬甸政界人士對(duì)外國(guó)投資呈開(kāi)放態(tài)度。
To say that these are the early days in a frontier economy is an understatement: There is virtually no ATM network and very few commercial bank branches, for instance.
如果你認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)“拓荒”經(jīng)濟(jì)體的起步階段，那么你還低估了緬甸的落后：該國(guó)幾乎沒(méi)有自動(dòng)柜員機(jī)(ATM)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，商業(yè)銀行設(shè)立的分支機(jī)構(gòu)也少之又少。
Foreigners have duly rushed in to fill a business and economic vacuum. Growth in foreign direct investment is soaring. Executives from giant global corporations in finance, consumer goods, accounting and construction now regularly fill Myanmar's meager hotel space. The cost of real estate in the center of the main business hub, Yangon, is on a par with that of Bangkok, which is far more developed.
不出所料，外國(guó)人大量涌入，以填補(bǔ)該國(guó)在商業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)上的真空。外商直接投資(FDI)的增速飆升。金融、消費(fèi)品、會(huì)計(jì)和建筑業(yè)的跨國(guó)大型企業(yè)的高管如今常常將緬甸本來(lái)就不多的酒店房間住滿(mǎn)。仰光市中心主要商業(yè)樞紐的房地產(chǎn)成本已經(jīng)可以和曼谷比肩，而曼谷要比仰光發(fā)達(dá)得多。
But investors in Myanmar should heed lessons from Vietnam, which opened up to the world in a similar fashion two decades ago. The failure rate for early investors in that market may have been as high as 90%, says Don Lam, chief executive of Vinacapital, one of Vietnam's largest asset managers.
但進(jìn)入緬甸的投資者應(yīng)該注意吸取越南的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。20年前越南也曾以類(lèi)似方式對(duì)世界開(kāi)放。越南最大的資產(chǎn)管理機(jī)構(gòu)之一Vinacapital的首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)Don Lam說(shuō)，進(jìn)入越南的早期投資者的失敗率可能高達(dá)90%。
Too much foreign capital chased too few potential partners or businesses with any track record. Also, there was too much focus on the impact of rising incomes on consumer-goods sales. The outcome, Mr. Lam says, was a lot of investment in risky, green-field projects, or Western-style consumer-goods businesses that didn't have a strong enough customer base for another decade.
目前在緬甸，有太多的外國(guó)資本在追逐潛在合作伙伴或企業(yè)，而有任何過(guò)往記錄可查的企業(yè)又太少。另外，對(duì)于收入上升對(duì)消費(fèi)品銷(xiāo)售的影響的關(guān)注又太多。Don Lam說(shuō)，這造成的后果就是有大量投資進(jìn)入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大的綠地投資項(xiàng)目或西式消費(fèi)品企業(yè)。這些企業(yè)要再過(guò)10年才會(huì)擁有足夠強(qiáng)大的客戶(hù)基礎(chǔ)。
Foreign investment in Vietnam surged between 1988 and 1995, but began slowing markedly thereafter, partly because high costs and poor infrastructure stymied returns, according to the International Monetary Fund. And while the Asian Financial Crisis squeezed foreign interest across the region in the late 1990s, foreign investment was slower to recover in Vietnam than in neighboring countries, the IMF says.
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1988年至1995年，涌入越南的外國(guó)投資數(shù)量激增，但95年之后開(kāi)始明顯放緩。部分原因是高昂的成本和糟糕的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施嚴(yán)重影響了投資回報(bào)。雖然上世紀(jì)90年代末發(fā)生的亞洲金融危機(jī)降低了外國(guó)資本對(duì)這一地區(qū)的興趣，但I(xiàn)MF的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，和鄰國(guó)相比，外商投資在越南的恢復(fù)速度更慢。
Myanmar's potential could attract about $170 billion in capital inflows between now and 2030, McKinsey estimates. A healthy appetite among foreign investors would surely help transform the economy. But those who put money into Myanmar too soon may well find their first taste ultimately turns sour.
麥肯錫(McKinsey)估計(jì)，從現(xiàn)在起到2030年之間，緬甸的潛力能夠吸引約1,700億美元的資本流入。外國(guó)投資者的強(qiáng)勁胃口肯定有助于緬甸經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型。但那些過(guò)快將資金投入緬甸的人很可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們的嘗試最終令人失望。
