Where extraterrestrial civilizations may be rare, there is something that is seemingly rarer still: A girlfriend. What might the approach employed in the estimation of the number of alien civilizations tell us about the number of potential girlfriends for me? A somewhat less scientific question, I admit, but one of substantial importance.
雖說外星生命及其稀少,但還是有一種生命比它更稀少:女朋友。這個能估量外星文明的公式該怎么用來估量我的潛在女友呢?我承認這是件不怎么科學的測試,但對我來說有著相當大的重要性。
The parameters are redefined as follows:
這樣的話,參數就要重新設置一下
N= The number of potential girlfriends
潛在女友的數量
R* = The rate of formation of people in the UK(i.e.population growth)
英國的人口增長率
Ep = The fraction of people in the UK who are women
女性在總人口中所占比率
Ne = The fraction of women in the UK who live in London
居住在倫敦的女性在所有女性中的比率
Fe = The fraction of women in London who are age-appropriate
年齡合適的女性在其中所占的比率
Fi = The fraction of age=appropriate women in London with a university education
年齡合適并有大學文憑的女性在其中所占比率
Fc = The fraction of age-appropriate, university-educated women in London who I find physically attractive
年齡合適、有大學文憑、我覺得長得好看的女性人數所占比率
L = The length of time in years that I have been alive thus making an encounter with a potential girlfriend possible
我能遇見一個這樣的女孩所需要的時間
If we plug in the above values we get: N=10,510
將以上所有的值相乘,我們得到的答案是:10,510
What this means is that on a given night there is greater than a 1 in 1000 chance that I will meet an attractive woman between the age of 24 and 34 with a university degree. Of course I have to take into account the fraction of women who will find me attractive, the fraction of women who will be single and the fraction of women who I will get along with. Including such factors would greatly reduce the above figure of 10,510. So the chance is 1 in 258,000, about 100 times better than finding an alien civilization. Still not bad.
這意味著,某一天晚上出去,我遇上一個24歲到34歲之間、大學畢業的理想女孩的概率大于千分之一。當然我還得考慮加進覺得我長得好看的女孩的比率、單身女性的比率、我能與其相處甚歡的女性人數所占比率。加進這些因素后,概率會大大降低,變成258,000分之一,比起找到外星文明的概率高了100倍,還不壞。