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Finance & economics
財經版塊
Recession risk
經濟衰退風險
Top of the danger list
頭號危險
Europe’s economic growth is extremely fragile, in large part owing to Germany.
歐洲的經濟增長極為脆弱，主要是因為德國。
When an economy contracts for two consecutive quarters, it is often considered to be in recession.
當一個經濟體連續兩個季度收縮時，通常被認為是處于經濟衰退之中。
European policymakers will be hoping that two consecutive quarters of growth are equally notable.
歐洲政策制定者會希望，連續兩個季度的增長同樣值得關注。
Data released on August 14th showed that, in the second quarter of the year, the EU’s economy once again grew by 0.3% against the previous quarter.
8月14日公布的數據顯示，今年第二季度，歐盟經濟比前一季度再次增長0.3%。
Although nothing to write home about by American standards, such growth is a relief after more than a year of stagnation.
雖然按照美國標準，這種增長很普通，但在經歷了一年多的停滯之后，這種增長還是令人欣慰的。
The good news does not stop there.
好消息不止于此。
Employment is growing, albeit more slowly than before.
歐洲的就業人數在增加，盡管增長速度比以前慢。
Wage growth is outpacing inflation, too, leading to rising living standards.
工資增長也超過了通貨膨脹，導致生活水平提高。
In the Netherlands, which has the continent’s most up-to-date labour-market data, centrally negotiated wages rose by 7% in July, twice the pace of inflation.
荷蘭擁有歐洲大陸最新的勞動力市場數據，在該國，7月份中央協商工資增長了7%，是通貨膨脹率的兩倍。
Union-negotiated wages are similarly strong in Germany.
工會協商工資在德國同樣很高。
Nevertheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) still felt confident enough to cut interest rates in June, and is expected to do so again in September.
然而，歐洲央行仍然自信地在6月降息，并預計在9月再次降息。
Full speed ahead, then?
所以經濟在全速前進嗎？
Not quite.
不完全是。
The continent faces a number of risks—any of which could make the picture much gloomier.
歐洲大陸面臨著許多風險——其中任何一個都可能使情況變得更加黯淡。
The first is that demand does not look as healthy as growth figures might suggest, as is illustrated by the construction industry.
首先，需求并不像增長數據所顯示的那樣健康，建筑業就是一個例證。
Rents are rising in many of Europe’s most alluring cities: Athens, Berlin and Madrid are all seeing growth of about 10% a year.
歐洲許多最具吸引力的城市租金都在上漲：雅典、柏林和馬德里的租金每年都增長約10%。
On top of this, interest rates are falling, which should boost property prices.
除此之外，利率正在下降，這應該會推動房地產價格上漲。
Yet housebuilder confidence is now at the lowest it has been this year, for reasons that are not immediately clear.
然而，房屋建筑商的信心目前處于今年以來的最低點，原因尚不清楚。
Growth in incomes should also be boosting consumption.
收入的增長也應該會促進消費。
In reality, however, “we are yet to see any meaningful pickup in real domestic demand,” observes Clemente De Lucia of Deutsche Bank.
然而實際上，德意志銀行的克萊門特·德·盧西亞指出，“我們尚未看到國內實際需求有任何有意義的回升”。
Households are mostly putting the additional money from higher pay into their savings accounts, he adds.
他補充道，家庭基本上將加薪帶來的額外收入存入了儲蓄賬戶。
In time, a cooling labour market could further reduce the desire to spend.
在以后，勞動力市場降溫可能會進一步降低消費意愿。
As Davide Oneglia of TS Lombard, a consultancy, notes, hiring has weakened in services, which has been the main source of jobs in recent years.
正如咨詢公司TS龍巴德的達維德·奧內利亞所指出的，服務業的招聘已經減弱，而服務業近年來一直是提供就業崗位的主要來源。
Governments are unlikely to support demand with extra spending of their own.
各國政府不太可能通過自己本國的額外支出來支撐需求。
Germany’s has once again almost torn itself apart over the legal intricacies of its balanced-budget rules.
德國再次因其平衡預算制的法律復雜性而幾乎四分五裂。（注：平衡預算制是德國的財政制度，目的是平衡國內各州在經濟和稅收方面的地區差異。）
Negotiations are ongoing, but the result is likely to be spending cuts.
談判正在進行中，但結果可能是削減開支。
France and Italy, meanwhile, are both in an “excessive deficit procedure”, which the European Commission reserves for the most blatant violators of its guidelines.
與此同時，法國和意大利都處于“過度赤字程序”中，這是歐盟委員會專門為最公然違反其指導方針的國家所設定的程序。（注：啟動過度赤字程序表示歐盟要求成員國降低財政赤字，否則將面臨罰款。）
As such, fiscal policy will be a drag on growth in the years to come.
因此，在未來幾年，財政政策將對經濟增長產生拖累。
The next worry concerns a single country: Germany.
下一個擔憂主要涉及一個國家：德國。
It has barely grown since 2019.
自2019年以來，德國經濟幾乎沒有增長。
More recently, its exports fell by 4.4% in June on a nominal basis, compared with a year earlier, and surveys indicate that worse is to come.
最近，按名義價值計算，其6月份的出口額與去年同期相比下降了4.4%，而且調查顯示，情況還會更糟。
Industrial companies that have failed to modernise now face a bigger challenge from China, as low-cost electric vehicles (EVs) pour out of its factories.
未能實現現代化的工業公司現在面臨著來自中國的更大挑戰，因為低成本的電動汽車正從中國工廠中大量出廠。
Germany’s long-term prospects are also concerning: other than Lithuania, no country in the OECD is set to lose more workers to retirement, relative to new entrants into the labour force.
德國的長期前景也令人擔憂：從相比于新進入勞動力市場人數來看，經合組織中除了立陶宛，沒有哪個國家因退休而失去的勞動力會比德國更多。
The country is big enough that its economic woes will also drag on Europe’s growth.
德國的體量足夠大，因此其經濟困境也將拖累歐洲的增長。
The continent’s trading partners will not come to the rescue.
歐洲大陸的貿易伙伴也不會前來救援歐洲。
American demand, though enviable, is starting to weaken.
美國的需求雖然令人羨慕，但也開始減弱。
If Donald Trump is elected, trade wars—both transatlantic and between America and China—will worsen the situation.
如果唐納德·特朗普當選，那么貿易戰——無論是美國與歐洲還是中美之間的貿易戰——都將使情況變得更糟。
Europe’s conflict with China is already under way, as the country prepares to sue the EU at the World Trade Organisation for raising tariffs on EVs.
歐洲與中國的沖突已經出現，因為中國準備在世界貿易組織起訴歐盟提高電動汽車關稅。
As it stands, Europe appears to be pulling off a soft landing, even if its economy never truly soared in the first place.
就目前的情況來看，歐洲似乎正在實現軟著陸，即使它的經濟一開始就從未真正騰飛過。
Inflation has fallen to 2.5%, just above the ECB’s target, and the continent has enjoyed two consecutive quarters of growth.
通貨膨脹率已降至2.5%，略高于歐洲央行的目標，而且歐洲大陸已連續兩個季度實現增長。
But the euro zone’s policymakers would be wise not to take too much cheer from this.
但是歐元區的政策制定者們如果對此過于樂觀，那就不明智了。
Plenty of dangers must first be navigated before the celebrations can begin.
在慶祝活動開始之前，必須首先應對許多危險。
