評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
The world economy
世界經濟
Take a deep breath
深呼吸
Recession fears are hard to square with the data.
關于經濟衰退的恐慌很難與數據形成一致。
A weak jobs report in America has raised fears that the world’s largest economy is heading for recession.
美國就業報告疲弱，引發了人們對這個世界最大經濟體正走向衰退的擔憂。
America’s stockmarkets have tumbled, with fear spreading to other countries.
美國股市暴跌，恐慌情緒蔓延至其他國家。
Japan’s Topix indexis 15% off its recent high; Germany’s main index is down by 7%.
日本東證指數較近期高點下跌15%，德國主要指數下跌7%。
When America sneezes, everywhere catches a cold.
當美國打噴嚏時，世界各地都感冒了。
But a look at the latest data suggests that the global economy is not in danger, and that the market panic may be misplaced.
但看一看最新的數據就會發現，全球經濟并沒有處于危險之中，市場恐慌可能是錯位的。
Turn first to the labour market.
首先來看勞動力市場。
America’s unemployment rate has risen from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.3% in July.
美國的失業率從2023年4月3.4%的低點上升到了7月的4.3%。
Indeed, history suggests that an increase of this size tends to accompany a drop in economic output—leading, in turn, to a further rise in unemployment, bankruptcies and falling incomes.
的確，歷史表明，這種幅度的失業率增長往往伴隨著經濟產出的下降，進而導致失業率進一步上升、破產和收入下降。
This cycle may be different, though, as labour markets in other parts of the rich world suggest.
不過，正如富裕世界其他地區的勞動力市場所表明的那樣，這個循環可能會有所不同。
For months unemployment has been slowly rising almost everywhere.
數月以來，幾乎所有地方的失業率都在緩慢上升。
Germany’s jobless rate has increased from a recent low of 2.9% to 3.4% today.
德國的失業率已從近期2.9%的低點上升到現在的3.4%。
Britain’s has risen from 3.6% to 4.4%, while Australia’s has gone from 3.5% to 4.1%.
英國失業率從3.6%上升到4.4%，而澳大利亞從3.5%上升到4.1%。
Some of this uptick has a common cause: a loosening of the extraordinarily tight labour market at the end of the covid-19 pandemic.
這種上升的部分原因是相同的：新冠疫情結束后，極度供不應求的勞動力市場有所緩和。
Not long ago employers, struggling with labour shortages and sky-high demand, would take on practically anybody they could.
不久前，雇主們還在為勞動力短缺和需求高漲而傷腦筋，那時他們幾乎會雇傭任何能雇傭的人。
Now, with everything more settled, they can be discerning.
現在，一切都更加穩定了，他們于是可以更加挑剔了。
On top of this, unemployment is rising in part because of changes to the rich world’s labour force.
除此之外，失業率不斷上升的部分原因是富裕國家勞動力發生變化。
The OECD’s working-age labour-force-participation rate recently hit an all-time high.
經合組織的勞動年齡人口勞動力參與率最近創下歷史新高。
Those who had once been on the economic sidelines are now actively looking for work—something which, in the short run at least, can raise the unemployment rate.
那些曾經未參與經濟活動的人現在正在積極尋找工作，至少在短期內，這會提高失業率。
These people have reason to think they will soon find a post.
這些人有理由認為他們很快就會找到工作。
Job growth remains pretty strong.
就業增長仍然相當強勁。
Over the past quarter employment has risen by 0.8% in Australia and 0.6% in Canada.
在過去的一個季度里，澳大利亞的就業人數增長了0.8%，加拿大的就業人數增長了0.6%。
Although Japanese employment fell by 0.03%, this is the exception in the rich world.
雖然日本的就業率下降了0.03%，但這在發達國家中屬于例外情況。
It is also hard to square supposed labour-market weakness with wage growth that, across advanced economies, easily exceeds the rate of inflation.
在發達經濟體中，工資增長輕松超過了通貨膨脹率，這也很難與理應疲弱的勞動力市場對應起來。
