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An uptick in American Treasury yields in February and March this year was accompanied by a slowdown in portfolio flows to emerging markets, seemingly presaging worse to come.
今年2月和3月美國國債收益率的上升伴隨著投資組合流入新興市場的放緩，似乎預示著更糟糕的情況即將到來。
That has not materialised, however, and not only because Treasury yields have dropped back from their spring highs.
然而，這并沒有確實發生，這不僅僅是因為美國國債收益率已從春季高點回落。
It also reflects a more robust policy framework in emerging economies, and greater resilience to market swings.
這也反映出新興經濟體的政策框架更加穩健，對市場波動的抵御能力也更強。
In recent decades they have built up foreign-exchange reserves and limited their dependence on foreign-currency debt.
近幾十年來，他們建立了外匯儲備，并減少了對外幣債務的依賴。
Most survived a severe squeeze in March 2020, when panicked investors rushed to havens and emerging markets’ currencies tumbled, with minimal economic damage.
2020年3月，當恐慌的投資者涌向避險資產，新興市場貨幣大幅貶值，大多數新興市場國家都幸存了下來，對它們的經濟造成的損害很小。
By comparison, recent exchange-rate wobbles have been modest, which has limited the extent to which higher import prices add to inflationary pressure.
相比之下，最近的匯率波動比較溫和，這限制了更高的進口價格對通脹造成的壓力。
So far this year the Brazilian real and the Indian rupee have weakened against the dollar by about 2%.
今年到目前為止，巴西雷亞爾和印度盧比對美元貶值了約2%。
(The real sank by nearly a quarter last year, and by about 20% during the ructions of 2013.)
(雷亞爾去年下跌了近四分之一，在2013年的動蕩中下跌了約20%。)
Vigilant central banks probably helped keep investors from growing skittish.
警惕的央行可能幫助投資者保持了警惕。
But higher interest rates are tough medicine at home.
但是在國內，高利率是一劑良藥。
Large increases pose a risk to growth.
大幅增長會給經濟增長帶來風險。
Slower growth in turn hurts the public coffers, even as higher interest rates raise governments’ borrowing costs.
即使高利率提高了政府的借貸成本，但經濟增長放緩也會損害公共財政。
Among the large emerging economies, the risk of a crisis is perhaps most palpable in Brazil, where a loss of confidence in the public finances contributed to a deep recession in 2015 and 2016.
在大型新興經濟體中，巴西的危機風險可能最為明顯，該國對公共財政的信心喪失導致了2015年和2016年的嚴重衰退。
If the fiscal risk premium that bond-buyers demand continues to rise, then the government may soon face a terrible choice between slashing spending while unemployment remains high and a full-blown fiscal crisis.
如果債券買家所要求的財政風險溢價繼續上升，政府可能很快就會面臨一個可怕的選擇：要么在失業率居高不下的情況下削減支出，要么爆發全面的財政危機。
Indeed, on August 12th Roberto Campos Neto, the head of Brazil’s central bank, fretted that markets were beginning to perceive a “fiscal deterioration” that could jeopardise economic recovery.
事實上，8月12日，巴西央行行長羅伯托·坎波斯·內托(Roberto Campos Neto)對市場開始察覺到可能危及經濟復蘇的“財政惡化”感到很焦慮。
Recent woes only make the inflation problem starker—and at risk of spilling over to other countries.
近期的困難只會讓通貨膨脹問題更加突出，并且有蔓延到其他國家的風險。
A severe drought in Brazil has reduced the capacity of its hydroelectric plants and sent energy prices soaring.
巴西的嚴重干旱降低了水力發電廠的產能，并導致能源價格飆升。
It also threatens the production of export crops like coffee, leading to reduced supplies and higher prices.
它還威脅到咖啡等出口作物的生產，導致供應減少和價格上漲。
Low levels of the Paraná river have forced firms like Vale, a mining company, to reduce the loads of iron ore being carried on barges, causing global shortages.
由于巴拉那河水位較低，礦業公司Vale等公司不得不減少運輸鐵礦石的駁船的裝載量，進而導致全球鐵礦石短缺。
Russia’s government is taxing wheat shipments abroad, contributing to higher prices worldwide.
俄羅斯政府對小麥出口征稅，導致全球小麥價格上漲。
The fever could break later in the year, as bottlenecks ease and as demand from America and China cools a little.
隨著瓶頸緩解以及來自美國和中國的需求有所降溫，這股熱潮可能會在今年晚些時候結束。
Yet there is also a risk of new disruptions: fresh outbreaks of covid-19, more natural disasters or social unrest, perhaps related to higher food prices.
然而，也存在新的破壞風險：新冠疫情再次爆發、更多自然災害或社會動蕩，可能與糧食價格上漲有關。
And for exporters like Brazil, softer commodity prices bring their own problems, such as a tumbling currency and an economic slowdown.
對巴西這樣的出口國來說，大宗商品價格走軟也帶來了自己的問題，比如匯率暴跌和經濟放緩。
A turn for the worse in one country could sour investor sentiment towards other places.
一個國家的情況惡化，可能會影響投資者對其他國家的信心。
Emerging markets have handled the economic strains of the past 18 months with fortitude.
過去18個月里，新興市場頑強地應對了經濟壓力。
But a break in the heat cannot come soon enough.
但這些壓力很快就會消退。
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