Mockups of the cabin look suitably plush.
機(jī)艙模型看起來非常奢華。
UBS, a bank, thinks supersonic travel has a future. It puts the cumulative size of the market at between $80bn and $280bn by 2040, depending on regulatory hurdles and whether the planes are delivered on time, on budget and operate as promised. Mr Scholl is eyeing the upper end of that range, a potential market for 1,200 Overture 1s at $200m each. Then he hopes to make progressively bigger craft offering lower fares and higher speeds. Spike, another American firm with supersonic ambitions, is developing an 18-seat business jet that doesn’t make a loud boom.
瑞士聯(lián)合銀行認(rèn)為超音速旅行的前景一片大好。它預(yù)計(jì),到2040年該市場的累計(jì)規(guī)模在800億至2800億美元之間,具體仍然取決于監(jiān)管障礙以及飛機(jī)是否按時(shí)、按預(yù)算交付和按預(yù)期運(yùn)營。肖爾關(guān)注的是這一預(yù)測區(qū)間的上限,這一潛在的市場能夠消費(fèi)1200架每架費(fèi)用為2億美元的“1號(hào)序曲”。之后,他希望慢慢造出更大的飛機(jī),提供更低的價(jià)格,和更快的速度。另一家有超音速野心的美國公司Spike正在開發(fā)一種18座的低音爆的公務(wù)機(jī)。
Is this pie in the sky? A distant caveat-strewn commitment is good publicity for United and for Boom when it seeks more funding. It is unlikely that much cash has yet changed hands. Overture 1 is not set to enter service until 2029. Aerion, another firm that hoped to build an 8-10-seat business jet, unexpectedly folded in May despite orders worth more than $11bn and backing from Boeing, America’s giant aeroplane-maker.
這會(huì)是紙上談兵嗎?對(duì)美聯(lián)航和尋求更多融資的Boom公司來說,一個(gè)兌現(xiàn)無期的許諾加上時(shí)不時(shí)發(fā)布警告饒是不錯(cuò)的宣傳方式。目前還不太可能有大量現(xiàn)金交易。“1號(hào)序曲”要到2029年才開始投入使用。另一家Aerion公司希望打造一款8座到10座的公務(wù)機(jī),盡管獲得了超過110億美元的訂單和美國飛機(jī)制造巨頭波音的支持,但該公司卻在5月倒閉了。
National regulations banning supersonic speeds over land rule out trips across North America, home to lots of business travellers and most of the world’s business jets. Morgan Stanley, a bank, reckons that at $120m, double the price of a similar subsonic plane, even the ultra-rich wouldn’t pay to cut four hours from a transatlantic trip. Tellingly, Boeing itself has no plans to go supersonic. Nor has Airbus, its European arch-rival (which was involved in the Concorde project). The passenger-jet duopoly reckons that cheaper and cleaner flying is more important than speed. Breaking the sound barrier is still some way off for the ordinary punter.
美國法規(guī)禁止在境內(nèi)超音速飛行,這就排除了穿越北美航行的可能性,而北美是眾多商務(wù)旅行者和世界上大多數(shù)公務(wù)機(jī)的所在地。摩根士丹利銀行認(rèn)為,1.2億美元的公務(wù)機(jī)價(jià)格是同類亞音速飛機(jī)價(jià)格的兩倍,即使是超級(jí)富豪也不愿斥巨資只為跨大西洋的行程縮短四個(gè)小時(shí)。從波音沒有推出超音速飛機(jī)計(jì)劃可見一斑。它的歐洲頭號(hào)競爭對(duì)手空中客車公司(參與過協(xié)和式客機(jī)項(xiàng)目)也沒有任何動(dòng)作。壟斷了噴氣式客機(jī)的兩巨頭認(rèn)為,更便宜、更清潔的飛行比速度更重要。對(duì)于普通旅行者來說,突破音障尚需時(shí)日。
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