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For China's regulators, the new ventures are a high-stakes experiment meant to transform how savers think about investing. For years retail investors ploughed cash into deposit-like investment products sold and backed by state banks. The principal on such products was considered guaranteed, but the banks funnelled the cash towards high-risk borrowers such as small property developers or coal-mining outfits. By 2016 the banks' wealth-management arms oversaw around 13% of total banking assets. But regulators cracked down, no longer willing to see banks and ordinary savers exposed to the intensifying risks.
對中國監管機構來說，這些新項目是一項高風險的實驗，旨在改變儲戶對投資的看法。多年來，散戶投資者將現金投入國有銀行出售和支持的類似存款的投資產品。這類產品的本金被認為是有擔保的，但銀行卻將資金投向高風險借款人，如小型房地產開發商或煤礦企業。到2016年，這些銀行的財富管理部門監管的資產約占銀行總資產的13%。但是監管機構不愿再看著銀行和普通儲戶面臨的風險日益加劇，于是出手進行了嚴厲整治。
Guaranteed products have been banned. Meanwhile banks' wealth assets have been spun into new subsidiaries. These must wind down the old deposit-like products and design new ones based on net asset value. In 2020 the new units had 26trn yuan in assets under management, reckons CICC, an investment bank. It is with them that foreign investors have been invited to establish joint ventures.
保本理財產品已被禁止。與此同時，銀行的財富資產被剝離成了新的子公司。這些子公司必須逐步減少舊的類似存款的產品，并根據資產凈值設計新的產品。投資銀行中金公司估計，到2020年這些新子公司管理的資產將達到26萬億元。正是它們邀請了外國投資者建立合資企業。
The call sounds familiar. Foreign financiers have been knocking at China's door for generations, with an eye to every corner of the industry, from retail banking to securities. In 1995 CCB and Morgan Stanley, another Wall Street bank, set up CICC; in 2004 Goldman was allowed to establish the first foreign securities joint venture. But when you look back over the past two decades, the developments seem underwhelming and the returns meagre.
這種呼喚似曾相識。幾代外國金融家一直在敲中國的大門，他們關注著這個行業從零售銀行到證券的每個角落。1995年，中國建設銀行和另一家華爾街銀行摩根士丹利成立了中金公司。2004年，高盛獲準成立了第一家外國合資證券公司。但當你回顧過去20年的時候你會發現，這些發展似乎并不引人注目，回報也很微薄。
That was largely because China opened up only when home-grown firms were big enough to withstand competition. Some foreign retail banks launched gung-ho expansion plans only to quit the market later, defeated by domestic giants' extensive branch networks. Securities joint ventures have taken more than a decade to pass majority control to foreign investors. Payments firms such as Visa and Mastercard were shut out until mobile payments became dominant and competition futile.
這在很大程度上是因為中國只有在本土企業規模足夠大、能夠抵御競爭時才會對外開放。一些外國零售銀行推出了雄心勃勃的擴張計劃，但后來被國內銀行巨頭廣泛的分行網絡擊敗，退出了市場。合資證券公司花了十多年時間才將多數控股權移交給外國投資者。直到移動支付占據主導地位，競爭變得毫無意義，Visa和萬事達等支付公司才被拒之于市場之外。
Wealth management could be different. For one, the foreigners do not face a mature market with insurmountable competition. Regulators' sweeping reforms mean that they are in fact entering what could become the world's largest market for retail wealth at an early stage.
財富管理可能會有所不同。首先，外資企業所面對的不是一個成熟的、不可逾越的競爭市場。監管機構的全面改革意味著它們實際上正在進入中國這個可能成為全球最大零售財富市場的早期階段。
This is evident in the financial products on offer today. China's mutual-fund industry has grown at a fantastic pace in recent years. Many firms now oversee 1trn yuan in assets. Money-market funds are ubiquitous. But product design is still in its infancy. Global firms are expected to bring a new level of sophistication. Tuan Lam of Goldman says his group will offer quantitative products such as algorithmic and factorbased strategies, and cross-border and alternative-asset investments. "These are not present in China right now," he notes.
這一點在如今提供的金融產品中體現得很明顯。近年來，中國的共同基金業以驚人的速度增長。許多公司現在管理著1萬億元的資產。貨幣市場基金無處不在。但產品設計仍處于起步階段。人們期待全球公司能夠帶來更成熟高級的產品。高盛的段林表示，他的團隊將提供量化產品，如算法和基于因素的策略，以及跨境和另類資產投資。他指出：“目前中國還沒有這種產品。”
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