It all looks good on paper. But then, nuclear power always does. The industry has been plagued by delays and cost overruns for decades. Existing sodium-cooled reactors, most of which are experimental, have a spotty record. A plant in Japan suffered a serious fire in 1995 and was shut down for over a decade. The Superphénix reactor in France, built in 1974, proved extremely unreliable, and was offline for years at a time. It closed for good in 1998. (Other reactors, such as the Fast Flux Test Facility in Washington state, have better records.)
從紙上看一切都很好。但話說回來,核能總是如此。數十年來,該行業一直受到工期延誤和成本超支的困擾。現有的鈉冷卻反應堆大部分都是實驗性的,其記錄參差不齊。日本的一家工廠在1995年遭受了嚴重的火災,并被關閉了十多年。法國的Superphénix反應堆建于1974年,事實證明它非常不可靠,一度中斷了好幾年。它于1998年永久關閉。(其他反應堆,比如華盛頓州的Fast Flux Test Facility,有更好的記錄。)
The Union of Concerned Scientists, an American not-for-profit organisation, argues in a report published in March that sodium's advantages as a coolant are counterbalanced by drawbacks. One is that a reactor which ran too hot might see its power output rise as a consequence. Unlike water, the loss of which shuts a reactor down for lack of moderation, sodium slightly damps the chain-reaction. If bubbles of sodium vapour formed in the coolant, that damping effect would diminish, risking a dangerous feedback loop of rising temperatures and growing power output.
美國非營利組織“憂思科學家聯盟”在3月份發表的一份報告中指出,鈉作為冷卻劑的優點被其缺點抵消了。一個是,反應堆運行過熱可能會導致其功率輸出上升。與水不同的是,鈉會輕微地抑制鏈式反應,而水的流失會導致反應堆因缺乏節制而關閉。如果在冷卻劑中形成鈉蒸汽的氣泡,這種阻尼效應將會減弱,冒著溫度上升和功率輸出增加的危險反饋回路的風險。
The physics of such judgments are tricky. Few countries have as much nuclear experience as France, which generates around 70% of its electricity that way. Yet in 2015 French regulators said they could not determine whether sodium-cooled reactors are significantly safer than modern LWRS. TerraPower, moreover, insists that its Natrium plant is designed in a way that makes runaway reactions impossible.
這種判斷的物理原理是復雜的。很少有國家擁有像法國這樣豐富的核電經驗,法國大約70%的電力都是通過這種方式產生的。然而在2015年,法國監管機構表示,他們不能確定鈉冷反應堆是否顯著顯然比現代LWRS更安全。此外,泰拉能源公司堅稱,其鈉廠的設計方式使失控反應不可能發生。
America's government, for its part, thinks the technology has merit. It is chipping in $80m to help TerraPower build the demonstration plant, which the firm says should be ready by 2028. In the meantime, says Mr Levesque, TerraPower has been fielding inquiries from electricity firms interested in its technology. Whether Mr Gates's bet on a nuclear-power revival will pay off remains to be seen.
美國政府則認為這項技術有其優點。該公司出資8000萬美元幫助泰拉能源建立示范工廠,該公司稱該工廠將在2028年完工。與此同時,萊維斯克先生說,泰拉能源公司一直致力于處理對其技術感興趣的電力公司的咨詢。蓋茨先生對核電復興的押注是否會帶來回報還有待觀察。
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