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The debt burden and maturity profile only get you so far. There are three other influences that investors might usefully bear in mind. The first is commodity prices. The collapse in crude prices last year left a few oil-producing countries short of hard-currency earnings. It played a part in the troubles of Ecuador, one of six countries to default on its bonds last year. For a while it seemed likely that Angola, a highly indebted oil exporter, would follow suit. Support from China and the IMF saved it, along with a marked pickup in the oil price late last year. Rising metals prices are also helpful to many indebted countries. The copper price is important for Chile, Peru and Zambia; the price of gold to Ghana and South Africa.
債務負擔和到期債務組合只能幫到你這么多。投資者可能還需記住另外三個影響因素。首先是商品價格。去年原油價格的暴跌使得一些產油國的硬通貨收入不足。這是厄瓜多爾去年遇到麻煩的部分原因，厄瓜多爾是去年六個拖欠債券的國家之一。一段時間以來，負債累累的石油出口國安哥拉似乎也會步其后風。來自中國和國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的支持，加上去年末油價的顯著回升，拯救了它。金屬價格上漲也有利于許多負債國家。銅價對智利、秘魯和贊比亞都很重要，黃金價格對加納和南非很重要。
The second factor is exposure to tourism. The hit to the industry from the pandemic played a part in the default of Belize and in stresses elsewhere, says Stuart Culverhouse of Tellimer, an emerging-market research firm. It might take years for tourism to recover fully. The IMF recently sharply downgraded its forecasts for the Caribbean economies. Sri Lanka has been dogged by fears of default, in part because it has heavy debts, but also because of lost income from tourists. For Kenya, an energyimporter with a hefty debt burden, a hit to tourism and a higher oil price is an unfortunate combination.
第二個因素是旅游業。新興市場研究公司Tellimer的斯圖爾特·卡爾弗豪斯說，這一流行病對工業的打擊在一定程度上造成了伯利茲的違約和其他地方的壓力。旅游業可能需要數年時間才能完全恢復。國際貨幣基金組織最近大幅下調了對加勒比經濟體的預測。斯里蘭卡一直被債務違約的擔憂所困擾，部分原因是該國債務沉重，另一方面是因為來自游客收入的減少。對于肯尼亞這樣一個背負著沉重債務負擔的能源進口國來說，旅游業的打擊和油價上漲是一個不幸的組合。
A third influence is the imf. Understanding its ways is an essential part of investing in emerging-market bonds. The fund has lent a total of $110bn, supporting 86 countries, since the pandemic struck. Some of this has been in the form of debt relief; some in rapid-fire lending and credit lines; some of it is programme lending with strings attached. The IMF is readying a $650bn issue of special drawing rights (SDRS)—essentially an overdraft facility at a negligible interest rate—for its members. The SDR gift will make a big difference to smaller countries, in some cases doubling their foreign-exchange reserves, says Yvette Babb of William Blair, an asset manager.
第三個影響因素是國際貨幣基金組織。了解其方向是投資新興市場債券必不可少的一部分。自疫情爆發以來，該基金總共提供了1100億美元貸款，支持了86個國家。其中一些是以債務減免的形式，一些是快速發放貸款和信用額度，其中一些是附加條件的項目貸款。國際貨幣基金組織正準備為其成員國發行6500億美元的特別提款權——本質上是一種利率可忽略不計的透支工具。資產管理公司William Blair的伊薇特·芭布表示，特別提款權的饋贈將對小國產生巨大的影響，在某些情況下會使它們的外匯儲備翻一番。
A frosty relationship with the fund is probably unwise. The kinder, gentler IMF has kept sovereign defaults in check much as central-bank action and fiscal stimulus have kept corporate defaults in check in the rich world. There may well be further setbacks to some sovereign Eurobond issuers. But a lot more yieldstarved investors may soon be dusting off their atlases.
與IMF的冷淡關系可能是不明智的。更友善、更溫和的國際貨幣基金組織一直在控制主權債務違約，就像發達國家通過央行的行動和財政刺激來控制企業債務違約一樣。一些歐洲主權債券發行者很可能會遭遇進一步的挫折。而更多渴望收益的投資者可能很快就會抹去他們地圖冊上的灰塵。
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