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The appeal of high-yielding emerging-market dollar bonds
新興市場美元債券的吸引力
The hunt for bonds that pay more interest to retirees and others requiring a fixed income has taken institutional investors to some exotic places in recent years. Last month they alighted on Ghana, which issued $3bn-worth of Eurobonds, as dollar bonds issued outside America are known. Ghana may be exotic but it is also risky. Its government debt-to-GDP ratio was a hefty 78% in 2020. With such risks come rewards: the yields on Ghana's new Eurobonds were roughly 8-9%.
近年來，機構投資者為了追逐能夠給退休人員和其他需要固定收益的人支付更高利息的債券，紛紛前往異國他鄉。上個月，他們盯上了加納，加納發行了價值30億美元的歐洲債券(即在美國以外發行的美元債券)。加納可能懷有異國情調，但它也有風險。2020年，其政府債務與GDP之比高達78%。這樣的風險帶來了回報：加納新發行的歐元債券的收益率約為8-9%。
The alternatives are hardly compelling. The spread, or additional yield, over Treasury bonds offered by American corporate bonds is close to its pre-pandemic low and not far from its all-time low. For a given credit rating, an investor can usually get a wider spread over Treasuries (and thus a higher expected return) by buying the dollar bonds issued by an emerging-market sovereign, says Yacov Arnopolin of pimco, a big bondfund manager.
這一選擇很難令人信服。美國公司債券與國庫券之間的息差(或者說額外收益)已經接近大流行前的低點，距離歷史低點也不遠。大型債券基金管理公司太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)的雅各布·阿諾珀林表示，對于給定的信用評級，投資者通常可以通過購買新興市場主權國家發行的美元債券，獲得與美國國債更大的利差(從而獲得更高的預期回報)。
There are reasons for the discrepancy. Investors feel more comfortable owning corporate bonds, because the Federal Reserve has, in effect, provided a liquidity backstop for the market since last March. American companies stand to benefit from President Joe Biden's $1.9trn fiscal-stimulus package. A rapid vaccine roll-out means America's economy will get back to normal far sooner than most emerging markets. On top of this lies another factor. The risk of corporate default is something that can be calculated in a spreadsheet model. But working out the chances of a sovereign default is a more complex business.
這種差異是有原因的。投資者更愿意持有公司債券，因為自去年3月以來，美聯儲實際上為市場提供了流動性支持。美國企業將從喬·拜登總統1.9萬億美元的財政刺激計劃中受益。疫苗的迅速推出意味著美國經濟會比大多數新興市場更快恢復正常。除此之外，還有一個因素。企業違約的風險可以通過電子表格模型計算出來，但計算主權債務違約的可能性是一件更加復雜的事情。
Start with the things you can put in a spreadsheet, such as debt loads. The IMF divides poorer countries into two categories, middle- and low-income. The first group saw public-debt burdens rise by around ten percentage points, to 64% of GDP in 2020. Those for the second, which includes Ghana, rose by around five percentage points, to 49.5%. Ghana's debt burden is thus well above that of its peer group. Like some other poor countries, it had a lot of lumpy dollar debts coming due in 2022-24. That is why it used some of the proceeds of its recent sale to retire a Eurobond maturing in 2023.
從可以放入電子表格的東西開始，比如債務負擔。國際貨幣基金組織將較貧窮的國家分為兩類，中等收入國家和低收入國家。第一類中等收入國家的公共債務負擔上升了大約10個百分點，2020年達到GDP的64%。第二類低收入國家，包括加納，增長了大約5個百分點，達到49.5%。因此，加納的債務負擔遠遠高于其他同類國家。和其他貧窮國家一樣，它有大量的美元債務將在2022-24年到期。這就是為什么它用最近出售的部分收益來償還2023年到期的歐元債券。
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